Point of this thread is to make us think about our major ‘player’ limitations (no Fev and Poor Kicking Skills) and how we can fix these before Judd retires.

I think the loss on the weekend should open up some eyes. It was reflective of our worrying pre-season form and I think is a reality check in so far as where this team is placed and where it is headed.

The Ess loss and our current state is due in part to our list having too many poor kicks and the obvious loss of Fevola (and our inability to blood a good young fwd in the past few years) and shows just how far we are off the pace. There are other issues of course (the merits of the coach can be left to another thread), but these are clearly major list related problems. Time and time again in 2010 we will go fwd and not get max return bec we don’t have a top fwdline and bec we have players constantly turning the ball over. It will be a long year and the signs were there during the pre-season.

Until Henderson matures into a topline fwd (and that is not guaranteed), or we recruit a Roughead (which would be virtually impossible to do bec all stars will be signed up and off limits bec of the GC17 threat), or until Betts/Yarran/Garlett mature to the stage they mirror the Didak/Medhurst/Davis combo at Collingwood, we are going to struggle to be a top 4 side, bec we just don’t have a top 4 fwdline capable of producing week in week out.

Setanta has done well, but his dropped marks on the weekend just reinforced my view that he is more an effective scragger than an elite aerialist. Thinking ahead, I still have him in my thoughts (see below) whereas I have dropped other more seasoned players, but I don’t think he is THE solution. You need a key fwd who can take that big mark and kick that crunch goal when the heat is on and the game is tight. And Setanta, as good as his 9 gls have been, just doesn’t strike me as that sort of player. It’s not his fault, he didn’t grow up playing this game. But we need someone who will take those two marks and convert, instead of having to rely on smothers and scragging at ground level 5 meters from goal (as good as that work by Setanta is).

An article was written in The Age last year (about Fevola no less) and in it the writer mentioned that the club think 2011 is the year our window opens. I think it goes without saying we need to re-assess that prediction, given the loss of Fevola and our need to establish a new fwdline. Now, unless the O’hAilpin/Henderson + Betts/Yarran/Garlett combo are good enough as a complete fwdline package (and they might be, though I have serious reservations personally), or Kruezer suddenly starts taking marks up fwd (right now he is 1,000 miles off that, and besides I think he is more useful as a ruck), the cold hard reality is we are going to have to trade for a gun fwd, or wait until the promising young rookie talls Casboult/Donaldson develop, which could take 3-4 years, by which time the Scotlands of the world surely would have retired.

My gut feel, as much as this hurts, is our ‘window’ won’t open until 2013, or 2014, effectively 3-4 years delayed. By then Judd will be 29 (scary isn’t it !!) and Waite will be 30.

And amazingly, if my feelings are right and the club wake up and cast off the Mids who cannot kick, and keep the ‘promising’ young talls we currently have, if anything in 3 years we will have a scarcity of Mids/Flankers (just as well we got Lucas and not a so-so KPP with Pick 12 last year !!), meaning, arguably our recruiting priorities in coming years will be focussed on Mids. As mentioned earlier I think we should try and ‘trade’ for a quality tall fwd if we can. But reality is it will be virtually impossible to get a Roughead, and so more likely I foresee us doing what the Dogs did and around 2012/13 trading for older, proven fwds like Akermanis & Hall.

By 2013, in my honest view, Scotland, Thornton, Houlihan, Hadley, Wiggins etc will be no longer and Brock I fear might be too slow and battle worn by then. I have heard he has bad ankles and let's face it he is slow at 24, so by 27/28 I fear the game might have passed him by given the game gets faster and faster every year (so the experts tell us). And as hard as Carrazzo tries, and as blue as his heart beats, I just don’t think we can afford to have bad kicks in the side, and by 2013 he will be 29.

Promising young KPP rookies Casboult, White and Donaldson will have had 3 years in the system so should be starting to have an impact hopefully (Bower kicked-on in his 4th year and he was a rake).

As signposted earlier, I think we not only have to find a gun fwd (be it a young gun like Roughie or an ageing star like a Hall type) but we also need to get rid of the poor kicks. Turnovers hurt more than ever before and I just think under pressure players like Carrazzo and Armfield and Walker fail to deliver with their usage. Walker is one I’d like to think can still make it, but the rumours were strong last year he was put up for trade, so if you believe that then the club already think he is limited.

So here it is. Future Team. Barring injuries, expected games played come R1 2013 in brackets. Notice the INTERCHANGE has far more talls than smalls !!! And obviously this is just based on what we have now, I have no idea how we will fare in future drafts and trades etc. That said I have assumed we will trade for a Hall type in 2012 (if we cannot get lucky and convince a Roughead to come over … Thornton + Walker + Houlihan for Roughead??).

B Joseph (90), Jamison (100), Bower (110)
HB Russell (140), Austin (70)/White (40), Grigg (90)
C Lucas (60), Gibbs (130), Simpson (180)
R Kruezer (110), Judd (240), Murphy (150)
HF Yarran (70), Henderson (80), Waite (180)
F Betts (160), Barry Hall type Recruited Via Trade (250), Garlett (60)

INT (Smalls/Flankers) Kerr (30), O’Keefe (30), Robinson (80). Maybe one of Walker or McLean will survive??? But when you look at their respective limitations, 3 years seems a long way off doesn’t it !!

INT (Talls) Casboult (30), Donaldson (30), O’hAilpin (120), Hampson(80)/Jacobs (40)/Warnock (90), Davies (40)

Note : Interchange means these guys will still be at the club and may be doing well enough to be in starting 18. But for time being I have them slotted on the Bench.

My reasoning for keeping/delisting….

Scotland – will be 32 and likely too old

Houlihan – will be 31 and is barely an essential member in 2010 so bye bye

Hadley – will be 30 and can’t even get in the team now so bye bye

Wiggins – if this guy is part of our next Premiership side it will be a miracle

Waite –keeps his spot though he will be 30 in 2013. I questioned at TC recently whether he had the goods to be a key fwd, and though obviously it is harsh to judge him so early in 2010 bec he is coming back from injury, after what I saw the other night I don’t think he is a No.1 FWD. And I also don’t think he is a star stopper down back. He is a re-bounding, loose defender, or a HFF/Wingman, ie: a Swingman.

O'hAilpin – keeps his spot but I’m not convinced he is THE answer at FF/CHF. Could well be our 2nd or 3rd fwd though.

Carrazzo – will be 29 and I don’t his kicking will ever be good so as much as I love Carrots I don’t think he will be there in 3 years. If he is he’d have to be the only poor kick in the team, you can only carry 1 if that

Judd – hopefully he will be firing at the age of 29 and can see a career well past 30

Fisher – too many injuries, too fragile, and can’t chase

Thornton – I think he is a so-so player, not elite by any means. Jamison is a better stopper and has only played 30 something games, and Bower is as good defensively while also being a far better attacking defender. White and Austin will pressure Thornton for that 3rd tall spot down back, and I hope at least one develops into a better player than Thornton. Ratten has already made it clear Thornton is the 3rd defender, not in the top 2. With draft compromised so much in coming years might be a good idea to trade him for a pick. KPPs have currency.

Simpson – will be 29 but has been durable and is a pretty good player so should still be there. The skinny ones often have durability.

McLean – 50/50 on Brock. will be 27/28 which is not old old, but already has bad ankles and is slow as slow can be, and the game is getting faster every year so I doubt Brock will be there in 3-4 years. When we got him I like the club thought he might give us 5 years but after seeing how slow he is I have revised that to 3-4 years. Hope to see him there though in 3 years bec his hardness inside is important.

Walker – 50/50 on Walks. Is quick and versatile (though the latter comment is tantamount to saying he is not particularly good at one single thing) but I just think he shows little sign that he is close to being over the ‘bad kicking days’. May be persisted with simply bec of his pace.

Jamison – our best stopper and a natural FB

Johnson – will most likely get the chop at end of this year

Warnock – has missed a lot of footy so we need to be patient, and it took years for Sandilands and Hille etc to truly arrive so I am happy for 206 to remain on the list. Might take another 3 years before he truly arrives.

Armfield – heroic and quick, but geez, he still coughs it up too often for my liking. May yet make it but my gut feel is better players (better ball users) will come on the scene and push him out. AJ is not a great kick either and I think in 3 years only one of these 2 will remain and my $$$ is on AJ.

Russell – has finally matured and I would like to think in time he will be allowed to be more attacking off HB bec I think when he attacks he and the team look awesome.

Betts – very talented player

Bower – has really stepped up and is among our top 10 players

Grigg – I have him on the Back Flank. Poor kick over distance, and holds the ball too long and gets caught as a result, and suspension was not good after a poor 2009, but, he is a good size, can run, is tough, wins clearances, can run-with, and so I think he will be persisted with and can see him running off HB. Just needs to iron out the long kicks. The short kicks are fine. Club rate him, so I have heard anyhow.

Murphy – our 2nd best player

Hampson – talls esp those from soccer background take time so will most likely be persisted with but no guarantee to make it. If he makes it as a fwd it won't be for a couple years.

Jacobs – talls take time but he shows a fair bit

Anderson – turns it over by hand and foot, bye bye, papers stamped after R2 one would think

Austin – hopefully he will get fit bec he is a good size now and is agile for his height and has some skill so is to be persisted with for a tall defensive role. Hopefully one of he or White (or both) make the grade and push Thornton out. Not sure about all this Austin-Forward talk.

Browne – doesn’t use the ball well enough

Gibbs – silk and hopefully will be used more attackingly in future

Joseph – very impressive little tagger/defender. We got lucky with that rookie pick, he is a bonus

Robinson – has copped a bit of criticism from some fans this year but I think he will make it. Hardness and tackling etc are first rate, and I just think he has a touch of class and enough ability, and so I think one day the penny will drop and he will be a good player

Kreuzer – I think his kicking is overrated and he can’t take a mark to save himself right now, but he is doing well at hit outs for his age and his ground level work and 2nd and 3rd efforts are exceptional, he will most likely be a champion for us but needs to start taking marks in the next couple years

Ellard – doesn’t get a look in now and is small so it’s impossible to see him being there in 3 years

Henderson – I think he is competent and I think his hands will be good, but I don’t think he is quick by any means and his kicking needs a fair bit of work, but chances are he will develop into a good fwd as his hands are OK and he is quick enough to get on a lead, though he is maybe not the next J.Brown that his coach in U18s thought he would become. We have nobody else (outside of Levi and Donaldson) so we have to persist with him and hope he makes it. Riewoldt only bagged 30 gls in his 3rd season in AFL.

Garlett – I am a huge fan and think once he fills out more he will be a player and I actually think Betts/Yazz/Garlett is one of the best things we have going for us moving fwds

Lucas – I was super impressed by his debut. Kicking is a little bit of a worry but he knows how to find the ball and can really run so I think he is a good prospect

Tiller – hasn’t done a thing yet. Early days still but I don’t think he is quick from what I have seen and is not tall tall so I don’t know where he fits in

Davies – like what brief things I have seen, is a good size, seems proactive, and seems to have decent skills. Reminds me a bit of Norman, but with a better head on his shoulders hopefully.

Yarran – only concern is he will be like Deon and not perform when it counts, but I think the fact he knocked some wise guy out overseas when he was 16 tells me he is hard nut and I think that bodes well as does his learning the art of chasing and tackling from Eddie. I think he will be a good one for us and is already starting to show some signs at senior level.

O'Keefe – hasn’t been a dream first year or so but they say he is a good kick and let’s face it we should persist with the few good kicks we have

Kerr – they say he has real talent so ditto as above he should be persisted with

Casboult – clearly has the ability to take strong marks and this is awesome as is his almost ruckman height. Is he quick enough though? Fingers crossed

Donaldson – this guy took the eye of not just me but others as well. Seems to be agile for a tall and hopefully could develop into a fwd. Some have said he looks like a natural fwd. Good sign for a 1st yr rookie. We need to cross our fingers and hope one of (or both) he or Levi make the grade as a serious fwd

Dare – no idea about him

Cachia – sounds like he has always had the build but not the game but recently has done far better. But I haven’t seem him so can’t comment.

Touhy – haven’t seen so can’t comment

White – by all accounts he is good enough to play seniors right now, so hopefully he develops into a key defender for us. Either he or Austin (or both) need to make it as a defender.

OK, so, recruiting priorities…

- GUN FWD … most likely via trade, either throw the kitchen sink to get a player like Roughie or failing that get a Hall type closer to 2012/23 when the iron is hot… future drafts will be raided by new teams and we won’t have top picks so chances of snaring a ready-to-go star young KPP in the draft will be unlikely
- MIDS/FLANKERS WHO CAN KICK … I really think the club need to try and limit the number of poor kicks we pick up in the draft. Teams like Hawthorn have made an art of only picking up good kicks. If they can do it so should we.
- Bucks Jnr will be a bonus
- Don’t really need to make rucks or small fwds a priority

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It's a small world, but I wouldn't want to paint it

That's a long post to tell us we need to recruit a forward with experience and put more games into our exisiting list.

Are we taking a leaf out of Terry Wallace's book now?

Great post. Agree with all points made...

I would say that the MC would be thinking along the same lines also as far as our premiership window being 3 or 4 years away. Why else would we neglect bringing in a ready made key forward or key back? Look at Western Bulldogs - they would not bring in a 32 year old Hall unless they felt their window was right now. The Cats wouldnt bring in a 28 year old mature age Podsiadly unless they felt their window was still open for another season or two. Collingwood and Hawks wouldnt do the same with Jolly, Ball and Burgoyne. Their window is here and now and thus have recruited accordingly.

Our window is still 3 or 4 years away IMO so we should be looking at young key backs and forwards at this stage, give them 3 years to develop and hope they are almost ready come 2013/14. And if not - then in 2012 we target a mature age key position back and forward and use the same approach as the Bulldogs or Geelong.

I'm ok with the Hughes 'best available' approach right now, but in the next year or two we need to start recruiting on a needs basis. I'm all for bringing in a 27+ age player if he is going to serve a distinct purpose for a period of 3 years.

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HENDERSONALENKO......YOU BEAUTY!!!!!

I found it interesting that when you take away the poor kicking mids/flankers, and the old mids/flankers, and leave the young, promisiing KPPS, you're left with a list that needs replenishing in the area of Mids/Flankers. Just goes to show WH & Co did the right thing when they picked a highly rated Mid in Lucas ahead of a so-so KPP such as Talia. Then they go off and grab a number of talls in the Rookie Draft and also with Davies, so now we need to get some Mids. It's almost like they have decided post-Fevola they need to semi start all over again, and have gone talls first bec they take time.

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It's a small world, but I wouldn't want to paint it

zing

A good 27 y.o has five years of good football in him. How old do you think Akermanis was when he went to the Bulldogs?

This is a good thread. All the criticism Wayne Hughes copped for the draft selections shows how misinformed the critics were.

He freely admitted he was going for mids and now we know why. He picked up the talls in the rookie and White, Donaldson, and Casboult, all more or less look likely types.

Thinking laterally for a quick fix, I am a fan of Setanta as well but agree he can't mark over his head if his life depended on it. Why not give him a go in the backline and switch Thornton to FF. He can mark and kick reasonably accurately. As everyone agrees, its the forward line that is giving the most headaches at the moment.

But does Ratts ever think laterally?

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"Get ready, Teddy - you're on": Ron Barassi half time 1970 Grand Final

Good thread which would give us a greater insight to how the club would be thinking with a lot of their decisions.

One factor not mentioned is free agency opens the door for us to grab that key forward, we could potentially get someone for nothing. Also if we needs mid's Deledio will be well and truly qualified for free agency by 2013 and would be of interest to a lot of clubs.

That projected team in 2013 would have an average games played of around 115. Seems very high.

I can guarantee there will be players drafted 2010-2012 that will be in our 2013 team. Otherwise we're either the next Geelong 09 or the next Carlton 02

Corey McKernan coach?

Was chatting to an RM from another club about the draft. I mentioned the feedback about going tall (KPP) and he asked hypothetically who I would have taken differently. I pointed out that James Craig and Jack Fitzpatrick were the only two we passed on (putting our first pick aside for now).....his basic comment was, neither of them had much exposed form as genuine KPP's