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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2024 3:24 pm 
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Garry Crane

Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:17 pm
Posts: 254
we are lucky that swans win away from home easily,now playing at home,maybe parker comes in,favourites, carlton have injuries all the signs point for a syd win ( how many times we have been in this position only to lose) MIND games as they say . Also can we stop the Lizard bursting from half back and Gulden needs to be tagged hard .


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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2024 5:23 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Easy to stop the Lizard, just give him a good hip-and-shoul... oh. Yeah, that's a problem.

Wasn't the SCG = Small Ground thing put to bed some years ago?


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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2024 8:00 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Stop 3 players you will beat them
Heeney Gulden and Warner

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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2024 9:28 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
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Sydney Blue wrote:
Stop 3 players you will beat them
Heeney Gulden and Warner

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Correct.


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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2024 10:32 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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This will be our second biggest win of the year so far.

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 7:51 am 
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Stephen Kernahan
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CK95 wrote:
Their midfield & Port's midfield make me nervous
Thankfully they'll only have their own midfield as port's will be busy getting ready for a game against Hawthorn.

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 9:07 am 
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Bruce Doull
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Carlton by 167 points then...

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 9:29 am 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17590
club29 wrote:
So what is the profile of the current swans as far as scoring goes ? Do they rely on sling shotting off HB after a turnover? That stuff freaks us out a bit.
If it they play more of a straight up game and like a stoppage game into forward half game a bit like the dees then I give us a shot.
I havent watched them play much this year but assume as always with the swans whatever style they play with they will do it very well.


Number 1 team in the AFL for scoring off turnover. 10% better than anyone else.
Their strength is they'll prevent you from scoring from turnover. Especially back half scores. They average 40.8 points per game from their back half, their opposition average 22.7.
18 points per game difference. The next best in the AFL is 10. So they slow you down with the ball, and they set up better than anyone behind the ball. That is where players like Saad will be missed. The ability to run and carry from defence.
It's also where players like Boyd will be vital. The ability to hit targets off the line coming out of defence are a huge bonus. Scoring from centre bounce will also be a massive bonus. With McCartin out and 6v6, you'd back our forwards in one on one. If they can't mark we need to neutralise the ground ball at worst and not press to high. We obviously need to make sure the Lizard is clamped if the Swans win the ground ball. He cuts us up with his kamikaze runs. I'd look to give Cottrell the job.

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 9:34 am 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:58 pm
Posts: 1356
Tickets are sold out and haven't been popping up at all in the past few days.


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 10:21 am 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
Posts: 2521
Blue Vain wrote:
club29 wrote:
So what is the profile of the current swans as far as scoring goes ? Do they rely on sling shotting off HB after a turnover? That stuff freaks us out a bit.
If it they play more of a straight up game and like a stoppage game into forward half game a bit like the dees then I give us a shot.
I havent watched them play much this year but assume as always with the swans whatever style they play with they will do it very well.


Number 1 team in the AFL for scoring off turnover. 10% better than anyone else.
Their strength is they'll prevent you from scoring from turnover. Especially back half scores. They average 40.8 points per game from their back half, their opposition average 22.7.
18 points per game difference. The next best in the AFL is 10. So they slow you down with the ball, and they set up better than anyone behind the ball. That is where players like Saad will be missed. The ability to run and carry from defence.
It's also where players like Boyd will be vital. The ability to hit targets off the line coming out of defence are a huge bonus. Scoring from centre bounce will also be a massive bonus. With McCartin out and 6v6, you'd back our forwards in one on one. If they can't mark we need to neutralise the ground ball at worst and not press to high. We obviously need to make sure the Lizard is clamped if the Swans win the ground ball. He cuts us up with his kamikaze runs. I'd look to give Cottrell the job.


I find the stats interesting and should be a part of our planning but not overly relied upon because they can be misleading. And teams like us can overcorrect based on stats if we’re not fully self aware.
A lot of those stats depend on who you’ve played, when, and where. And in what circumstances.
Just to take one example from our catalogue this season, our stats would look a lot different if TDK hits those 3 goals against Geelong. Or if Jeremy Cameron’s accuracy against us was more like his accuracy against the Demons a couple of weeks ago.
Also, Sydney played Collingwood early, when they were just getting warmed up. We played them after they’d hit their straps.
Melbourne did well to catch up to us last week but it was based on an absolute Hail Mary that caught us out and I think we’d get that match up on Petracca right if it happened again PLUS I think we took our foot off the gas once Hewett kicked the goal at the beginning of the last quarter.
I think we have a good chance of bludgeoning the
Swans with intense pressure that they haven’t really experienced much this season. They have some clear match winners but so do we.


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 10:28 am 
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Wayne Johnston

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:52 am
Posts: 8958
Location: Nth Fitzroy
Blue Vain wrote:
club29 wrote:
So what is the profile of the current swans as far as scoring goes ? Do they rely on sling shotting off HB after a turnover? That stuff freaks us out a bit.
If it they play more of a straight up game and like a stoppage game into forward half game a bit like the dees then I give us a shot.
I havent watched them play much this year but assume as always with the swans whatever style they play with they will do it very well.


Number 1 team in the AFL for scoring off turnover. 10% better than anyone else.
Their strength is they'll prevent you from scoring from turnover. Especially back half scores. They average 40.8 points per game from their back half, their opposition average 22.7.
18 points per game difference. The next best in the AFL is 10. So they slow you down with the ball, and they set up better than anyone behind the ball. That is where players like Saad will be missed. The ability to run and carry from defence.
It's also where players like Boyd will be vital. The ability to hit targets off the line coming out of defence are a huge bonus. Scoring from centre bounce will also be a massive bonus. With McCartin out and 6v6, you'd back our forwards in one on one. If they can't mark we need to neutralise the ground ball at worst and not press to high. We obviously need to make sure the Lizard is clamped if the Swans win the ground ball. He cuts us up with his kamikaze runs. I'd look to give Cottrell the job.


Thanks BV. Great info. Looks like a tough job ahead. Luckily we can play a lot of different ways. Playing tight risk free style might suit us. Rely on scoring off stoppages and hope for goals straight out of the middle. Similar to how we played Melb. I am also hoping that their numbers are a bit scewed by some easier teams they have played. Looking at their profile for their GWS and Essendon* games might give us more detail. Id be taking a team approach to Lizard. Try and body him off his line early so stem his momentum. He will have his moments but hopefully we can reduce his impact without a tagger.


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 1:16 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 5:28 pm
Posts: 4573
Rumours on Big Footy that Fogarty may return.
Changes may well be:
In: Hewett, Williams, Fogarty
Out: Pittonet, Cerra, Cowan

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 2:29 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Humpers wrote:
Rumours on Big Footy that Fogarty may return.
Changes may well be:
In: Hewett, Williams, Fogarty
Out: Pittonet, Cerra, Cowan




it would be wild if fog is back. what is that? 1 month for a fractured bone in his wrist? they weren't even reassessing him until round 11 after his cast was off.

so we've employed a witch doctor (on the down low) from the bowels of the angolian jungle, have we?


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 3:44 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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Location: Melbourne
Braithy wrote:
Humpers wrote:
Rumours on Big Footy that Fogarty may return.
Changes may well be:
In: Hewett, Williams, Fogarty
Out: Pittonet, Cerra, Cowan




it would be wild if fog is back. what is that? 1 month for a fractured bone in his wrist? they weren't even reassessing him until round 11 after his cast was off.

so we've employed a witch doctor (on the down low) from the bowels of the angolian jungle, have we?


Get him to lift the curse off Cerra’s hammy while he’s at it


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 4:13 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Source for the BF rumour:

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 5:44 pm 
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Bert Deacon
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Fog's got the dreaded 1-2 weeks next to his name in the latest injury update :cry:


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 6:12 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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SAKC RUSSELL


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 6:20 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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We’re back to missing ~10 players from our best 22. Swans are missing 2


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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 6:29 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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jake_h03 wrote:
We’re back to missing ~10 players from our best 22. Swans are missing 2


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I mean, tiny silver lining if I squint, at least it's now rather than August. I might be memory-holing it but pretty sure we had the same horrid run last year but had pretty much everyone fit and firing come August and September.

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2024 7:17 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:42 pm
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Braithy wrote:
Humpers wrote:
Rumours on Big Footy that Fogarty may return.
Changes may well be:
In: Hewett, Williams, Fogarty
Out: Pittonet, Cerra, Cowan




it would be wild if fog is back. what is that? 1 month for a fractured bone in his wrist? they weren't even reassessing him until round 11 after his cast was off.

so we've employed a witch doctor (on the down low) from the bowels of the angolian jungle, have we?


couldnt do any worse than our current set up

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