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Hi guys, some of you may be familiar with my work.
Basically, i write weekly match previews for a number of Collingwood boards and i also put them up on the opposition boards because most people usually enjoy the read. I assure you I am not trolling, simply posting this up for you to have a look.
I'll stick around to have a chat. Happy to receive any criticism and happy to engage in any debates.
FWIW, I watch all football games and my best mate is a carlton supporter, so i go to quite a few Carlton games with him...atleast 8 a year.
Sorry, It is very long, but i put quite a lot of work into it. Hopefully you find it informative.
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Both Collingwood and Carlton are coming off a Round 7 they would rather forget. For Carlton, a loss to Fremantle up on the Gold Coast was a real step backwards for a team who was rated a top 4 chance only a few weeks ago. For Collingwood, it is not the fact that they lost to the top of the ladder Saints which was disappointing…more the manner in which they lost.
Not that either side needs motivation to get up for a traditional Collingwood and Carlton match, but there is no doubt that there is a little bit more riding on this game than has been the case in the past 5 years. Both sides sit at 3 wins and 4 losses, and a firmly planted in the pack, where only 1 game separates 3rd from 12th.
There is no doubt that by the end of round 8, the top 8 will be taking some serious shape. For these 2 sides, one will be 4 wins and 4 losses, whilst the other will be languishing in the bottom half of the ladder at 3-5. It is fantastic to see a Collingwood and Carlton game with real meaning and everything on the line. No doubt this will be the fiercest battle in years.
Collingwood is struggling with injuries and this will be a factor going in. But there should also be some very strong ins for the Magpies side. Carlton on the other side are still seemingly struggling for a lack of forward options other than Brendon Fevola. Fev has copped a fair whack from the press after his game against Freo. Perhaps a bit unjustified considering he was obviously suffering from a injury which he sustained very early on. Coming off an 8 goal game, he was always going to cop extra attention from the Fremantle defence. And we all know he loves playing Collingwood. So do Carlton.
I’ve made the comment before, but I’ll make it again. Carlton are a side that Collingwood is going to struggle with. The reason is that their midfield is star studded and they have a big power forward. Considering the Magpies lack any taggers or a heap of pace through the middle, these star players usually find plenty of the ball. Collingwood likes going head to head and forcing a lot of contested footy. But Carlton were able to win all the individual matchups last year and simply had too much pace.
Recent History
Carlton obviously have the wood over Collingwood after winning both games in 2008. Prior to 2008, Collingwood had won 4 in a row…but obviously this is a different, more mature Carlton outfit, and we saw last year that they are dangerous.
In the last match these 2 sides played in round 12 last year, Murphy and Judd were dominant with 31 and 25 disposals respectively. Fevola was the standout with 8 goals, 6 behinds. For Collingwood, Swan and Medhurst were the only real contributors…Swan picking up 27 disposals and Medhurst kicking 4 goals. Unfortunately for Collingwood, both these players enter this week under an injury cloud.
The round 5 clash shows a similar tale. Judd again good…Fevola the standout with 7. Swan again picked up 27 disposals. Waite picked up the 3 Brownlow votes with a magnificent 26 disposals and 13 marks and played everywhere on the ground.
The Teams
As mentioned, Collingwood’s injury list is overflowing at the moment.
The definites to miss are Travis Cloke (Hamstring, 2 weeks) and Alan Didak (hamstring, 1 week), whilst Ben Johnson will be out for quite some time with his broken leg.
Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Josh Fraser are listed as ‘test’ and are expected to play, however serious question marks must be put over their fitness. Josh in particular was barely walking by the end of the St.Kilda game and has a history with his PCL. Davis and Medhurst have had quite a long break since they last played, so I am hoping they are fit and ready.
I also have a question mark over Dale Thomas. He sat out the last quarter against the Saints. Malthouse commented it was just ‘soreness’, and I am hoping this is the case. Perhaps there were also disciplinary reasons attached. He is not listed on the injury list and is expected to play.
Dane Swan is also not named on the injury list despite sitting off the last quarter with what looked a very dangerous knee injury. Apparently he has pulled up fine and will play, but the short break will be a concern for medical staff.
The Magpies leading goal-kicker John Anthony will be a welcome return from his 1 week suspension.
The Carlton injury list also contains some quality players. Carazzo will miss atleast 3 more with his finger injury, Grigg is named as a test, young ruckman Sam Jacobs is out for another rmonth, whilst Walker will miss the season with yet another shoulder injury. Warnock is still a month or 2 away as well.
We may see a few changes occur at Carlton. First of all, I think we’ll see rookie Mitch Robinson return after an impressive fortnight in the VFL.
The form of Cameron Cloke will also be a concern for the Blues, but he may be given a run against his former club.
Ryan Houlihan was dropped last week (much to the heartache of a lot of dream-teamers out there), but I doubt he will be out for long. His footskills are highly regarded, and to be honest I thought his form this year has been good. His defensive efforts against Hawthorn were highlighted, but his game the week prior was very good. Whether he returns this week or not is a different story. The Blues gave Scotland 2 weeks at VFL level as a wake-up call, and he has been good since returning. They may also do the same with Houlihan.
Without knowing the availability of Grigg, my prediction would be:
In: Robinson
Out: Cloke
Probably won’t happen because as Cloke is playing his former club, but Robinson is a tough nut and will relish the contest and the crowd so he should come in.
Alternatively, if I were Carlton, I would be looking to bring back Brad Fisher who was very good in the VFL last week, kicking 2 goals and was named in the best. The Blues really lack a lead up forward and Fisher has strong hands and has played good against Collingwood in the past. If he returns, it should be at the expense of Wiggins whose form has dropped off lately.
Predicting Collingwood’s changes is near impossible. To be honest, I think we could see 5 or more changes.
First of all, if Medhurst and Davis are fit, they are automatic inclusions…as is John Anthony. Fraser will definitely need assistance in the ruck. I really hope we stop using Leigh Brown as a make-shift and bring in a genuine backup.
Dayne Beams must also be just about right to return and is not listed on the injury list. His form prior to injury was good and I think his footskills and decision making are required.
I have given up predicting Malthouse’s changes, so I will go with what I want to see.
In: Medhurst, Davis, Anthony, Bryan, Beams
Out: Macaffer, Corrie, Cloke, L. Brown, Toovey
I highly doubt Toovey will be dropped as he may be required in a defensive role. To be honest, I think it will be Stanley who makes way after a poor game last week. But I am really keen to see Stanley given a month of solid footy at senior level so we can finally get a good read on him.
Macaffer and Corrie have not been bad, but are just not as good as Medhurst of Davis at this stage. Anthony seems a logical straight swap for Cloke, although forward line balance becomes an issue.
Bryan has been playing great footy in the VFL up forward. Against his old side, you can guarantee he’ll come out fired up. I have always questioned his ability to play consistent football, but he is fantastic at coming in and making an immediate impact for a one off game. I would like his toughness against the Blues. Wood was also very impressive in the VFL last week so could fill the 2nd ruck spot.
Other potential returns for Collingwood could be Reid and Cook. Both were standouts last week in the VFL. Cook’s criminal charges seem to be the only thing keeping him out, whilst Reid could be required in the forward leading role in the absence of Cloke…although he has been playing defence at VFL.
Carlton’s strengths, and what needs to happen to win
The obvious strength is the midfield. Goes without saying. On paper, Collingwood really looks like it will struggle to contain it, especially after every St.Kilda midfielder had a night out last Monday.
Basically, what needs to happen is 4 quarters of the same pressure Collingwood applied to St.Kilda in the first 20 minutes. St.Kilda are obviously a much more mature and seasoned team and were able to eventually out-muscle Collingwood. Carlton’s are improving, but are not quite there yet, so that sort of pressure may be more effective.
Carlton’s defence has always been a question mark, but looks much more settled this year. Bower in particular has been the big improver, having done impressive roles on both Franklin and Pavlich in the last 2 rounds. Pavlich spent a lot of time in the middle last week, but was held goal-less by Bower when moved forward. Franklin was contained until the last quarter.
Waite is playing the swing man role well. The Blues like pushing him forward because he is a goal kicker and a good alternative to Fevola. But he has a great ability to sit in holes in the defence and rack up a lot of marks. Jamison is a very important player to Carlton and usually gets the big jobs, whilst Thornton is the classic 3rd man up and has been steady this year.
Last year, Carlton was able to beat Collingwood by using flooding tactics. Collingwood really struggled to kick goals with the extra men in defence…and Carlton had a lot of run from defence. There were loose men everywhere, and the forward pressure was near non-existent. They will probably employ similar tactics again this year. Having seen Collingwood mauled by the zone last week, I’m sure we will see all teams employ either flooding or zoning tacts against them.
The key for Collingwood, as always, is to win the clearances. Getting first use of the footy becomes so crucial, simply because there is no evidence of run off half back and sides are finding it pretty easy to slow the Pies down. Unless Collingwood is getting the football forward, it is hard to see them winning by mounting attacks from defence.
Winning the clearances is a tough ask when the opponents have Judd, Murphy and Gibbs at the stoppages.
Collingwood will no doubt look to shut this game down, similarly to their tactics last week against the Saints. The run and carry of Carlton is going to concern, so I’m sure the Pies will look to make this a messy game and really try and thwart the run.
I would also like to see Collingwood shut down the loose men. I think the checking has been very loose by Collingwood this year.
But, the danger is that Collingwood themselves will drop loose players back to cover Fevola…especially since he kicked 15 goals last year against the Pies. This would also suit Carlton because it will allow them a lot of run off half back with all the loose numbers.
What’s most important is that the Pies are able to shut the game down and stop the run. The tackling has to be better than last week. The players cannot allow their opponents to get their arms free as St.Kilda did.
The big concern for Collingwood is the forward structure. Can Rocca and Anthony work in the forward line together? Without Cloke, Collingwood lack a Centre Half Forward. It will be very interesting to see what Malthouse will do to address this.
Rocca’s form has not been good. Considering Bryan kicked 5 goals in the VFL, perhaps he will come in as the big strong forward, and Ben Reid or Dawes will come into the side to play as a leading CHF. A forward line of Anthony and Rocca concerns me, especially since the Pies have been so stagnant out of defence. If you watch the best CHF’s, they lead long and release the pressure for the backline by providing a strong target up on the wings.
Matchups
Carlton’s Forward line
***Key Matchup: Fevola v Prestigiacomo – Fevola is obviously the big one. You would think keeping him to around 3-4 goals would be a huge win for Collingwood. Fevola made Harry O’Brien and Nathan Brown look very second rate last year. Collingwood will be very thankful to have Prestigiacomo at full back this year. ]His record against Fevola is quite good and he is better than Nathan Brown chasing down a lead. Presti was actually ok on Riewoldt last week. Riewoldt kicked 5, but many came in the 2nd half when the game was already over. Presti was exploited on long searching leads a bit, but where I feel he was beaten was in 1 on 1 body to body contests. Roo was too strong. Fevola may also be able to exploit Presti in this way…although he is a better 1 on 1 matchup than Harry O’Brien.
Like with any defence, the support is the key. It is pretty predictable that when Judd or Murphy or Gibbs are delivering inside 50, that they are going to look for Fevola. So Nick Maxwell will have a huge task of trying to chop off the leads.
Carlton are very good at making space for Fev, and their ball movement is usually quick enough to ensure teams do not have enough time to get numbers back in front of him. This makes our midfield pressure so important. If Carlton get a lot of run through the centre, I fear it would take Superman to beat Fevola on a lead (as Malthouse pointed out last year)
Fev did pick up an injury last week, but he is not listed on any injury lists and will definitely play. I think Fev would have to have his right leg amputated for him not to play against Collingwood. And even then he would probably still kick 5. He simply loves playing against the Black and White.
Betts v Harry O’Brien – Betts has been very impressive this year. He is 2nd on the goalkicking table with 19, and was leading up until round 6. Harry started on Milne last week, and considering the lack of a CHF option, I think Harry will play small again and try to blanket Betts. Eddie has become a crucial player for Carlton and his crumbing work is as good as any at the moment.
The only alternative I could see here is if Brad Fisher is recalled. Fisher was good in the VFL and I think the team really has a spot for him. Harry may be required in this role because he has the footspeed.
Nathan Brown v Waite/Kreuzer/Hampson – Hard to tell who the Blues will send forward as the 2nd tall. Waite and Kreuzer will play forward at times and Brown will probably get the task of manning them up. Alternatively, if Cloke plays, then Brown will definitely get the job on him.
Sean Hampson is the other. I think Carlton have hopes for him to become a tall forward given he is very quick and versatile for his size.
Toovey/Clarke v Yarran – If Toovey is played, then he will most likely get this job. Marty Clarke was very disappointing against Schneider last week, but will get this job if Toovey is played as a tagger or is dropped. Yarran is only a 2nd game player, but he looked dangerous enough in the first half against Fremantle. We do not want to see any of these small forwards getting on top, especially since the task of Fevola is going to be the main focus.
Midfield
***Key matchup: Wellingham v Judd – Either he or Barham, but Barham was beaten last week in tagging roles. I suppose I still base Wellingham’s tagging abilities on his job on Ablett Jnr last year. But I’d like to continue to develop this area of Wellingham’s game, and Judd is the best. Not having Rhyce Shaw leaves a void, because Rhyce usually got this role to good effect.
I have been very impressed with Wellingham in the last 2 weeks. I think he takes the game on, has great speed, and his skills are much better than Barham’s.
Judd is in terrific nick. I still don’t think he is back to his absolute best, but he is about 95% there and is playing some really good football. It was a pleasure to watch him against Fremantle. He really looked like the only guy who could possibly get the Blues across the line. He won 28 disposals, but it was how dangerous he looked that was impressive. His pace is definitely back and his fitness pretty good.
Last year, Judd played very well in both games against Collingwood and he was half as fit. Collingwood have to really hammer down on him. He is their best player and their captain. Although the Carlton midfield is star studded, Judd is the most experienced, mature and game-breaking. Nullifying him is essential because every player really looks to him.
I’d like to see Wellingham get this role and work off Judd. Like all star midfielders, Judd will play him little respect going the other way, so Wellingham should be able to win a fair share of the ball.
O’Bree v Murphy – This will most likely be a head to head matchup. Murphy is really in good form. He wins contested footy and does something with it. Plus he is proving to be a goal-kicking midfielder. O’bree was one of Collingwood’s best is a smacking last week, and his clearance work this year has been impressive as always. I’d expect O’bree to be very cautious of Murphy because he is truly emerging as a frontline midfielder in the competition.
Pendlebury v Gibbs – A worrying matchup, and potentially each would play quite wide of each other. Both have probably the best footskills for their side and are 2 young talents who have really established themselves this year.
Barham v Stevens – Nick Stevens is a fantastic ball user, but I have always said defensively he is not so strong. I don’t think he chases hard enough. But in attack he is fantastic and is really important to the Carlton side. Barham would be my matchup because he is lightning quick and a fantastic tackler. Be would really hurt Stevens going the other way. It was good to see Jaxson embrace the handball in the last 2 week after his footskills were abysmal in his first 2 games. Stevens was quiet against Fremantle and will be looking to bounce back.
Russell v Lockyer – Tarkyn had a quieter game against St.Kilda but was far from the worst. He has a tendency of getting off the leash and snaring a few goals. I think Carlton will ask someone like a Russell to mind Tarkyn. Alternatively, Collingwood may ask Lockyer to play as a defensive forward on Scotland.
Davis v Armfield – Leon is under an injury cloud with his abdominal strain, but I’m tipping him to return. I truly think Leon has become Collingwood’s most dangerous playmaker through the middle, but he is still contributing on the scoreboard. Perhaps Carlton would put Armfield in a defensive role against him.
Collingwood forward line:
So hard to predict what the structure will be. Although this is less than ideal, atleast Collingwood goes into the game unpredictable, and sometimes that can work in a sides favour.
Bower v Rocca – I think if Rocca plays, Bower will get the main job on him. The reason been that he will work off him and create. It will be interesting to see whether Carlton treat Anthony as the Collingwood number 1 forward. No team has as yet, but Anthony is Collingwood’s leading goal-kicker, so it is a matter of time before he begins attracting the number 1 defender.
Thornton v Anthony – A pretty good size and pace matchup here. Again, it may be Bower to go to Anthony since he has been taking the best forwards. Perhaps even O’Hailpin will be recalled to take big Anthony since he is stronger. But if Thornton goes to Anthony, I think it would be a really good matchup.
Medhurst v Jamison – Jamison has got this job in the past and will most likely get it again if Medhurst plays. I think he will, but there will be question marks over his fitness. Otherwise Macaffer will probably hold his spot and Jamison will get that role.
Jarrad Waite – I fear going too tall up forward, especially if Anthony Rocca is in the team. But if Bryan plays, then I think it would be wise sending him up forward to try and make Waite accountable. I don’t want to see Jarrad Waite loose across half back. He is too good at reading the incoming ball, and he always pushes forward for goals. Otherwise Heath Shaw may again play forward to try and defensive tag Waite. Fremantle last week ensured Waite was not left loose, however he was able to go forward and kick 3 goals.
I think if we see loose numbers, it will be Heath Shaw for Collingwood and Heath Scotland for Carlton.
Ruck:
This should be a really intriguing battle. Hopefully Fraser pulls up alright, but I really think it is time he is given help. Cameron Wood was BOG last week in the VFL, but I think Bryan will get the nod.
Kreuzer v Fraser would be intriguing. Each are ruckmen who use their agility to work over their opponents. Each are number 1 draft picks as well. I think they are pretty similar in the way they go about it, just Kreuzer is young and quicker. But Josh has experience and a bit more height so he may be able to do well in the hitouts…provided his knee allows him to jump.
I think if Josh plays, Kreuzer will be instructed to work him over. He will not be 100% fit, so Kreuzer’s versatility around the ground may be too much for Josh to handle.
Hampson is a worry for Collingwood as well considering he is so quick and agile. Bryan as the backup ruck is also a dangerous prospect for Carlton as they may not have anyone big enough to take him if he goes forward.
Each sides are not renowned for having strong ruck divisions, but this will be a very intriguing battle.
The Wrap Up
OK, if you’ve made it this far then thanks for reading!
It’s hard to take out the bias when doing a Collingwood v Carlton preview. But I do think that Collingwood will bounce back this year. Carlton always lift for this game, but surely Collingwood have a lot to prove and will be desperate to settle their season again.
Collingwood has gone L,W,L,W,L,W,L, so if this pattern is correct then it should be a Collingwood victory this week.
This pattern highlights the problem with Collingwood. Inconsistency. Carlton are also inconsistent, but they are a team on the move, whilst Collingwood has played finals 3 years straight and should be able to maintain a high standard week in week out…regardless of how young the list is.
I’m hoping Beams and Robinson return so we can see them along with Yarran and Sidebottom…all out of the 2008 draft and all very exciting prospects.
Injuries are no excuse for Collingwood, nor is a 5 day break. This is make or break. Carlton in my mind should go in favourites given their record in 2008 against the Pies. But this is anyone’s game.
Fevola and the battle of the midfield’s will determine this match. The structure of Collingwood’s forward line without Cloke will also be of interest.
I’ll go against my theory that whenever I tip Collingwood they lose….
Collingwood by 8 points in a thriller.
They reckon crowds have been down this year, lets see 75 thousand plus at the G on Sunday.
Please note, this preview was written Tuesday night/Wednesday morning so is up to date to that point. If any further news comes through on the injury front, please report it in this thread.
By DaVe86
aka David Natoli
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FAQ
Am I on the right site here?
but I'm sure plenty would enjoy your thoughts.
. After all, it's the coaching staff's responsibility for getting the team up and motivated each week.