good post gerry atric

of the 25 blokes picked from jordan russell onwards in 2004, i reckon there are only 5 decent players (and only 6 getting a regular game of senior AFL when fit)

Bate
Rusling (always injured)
Wood
Van Berlo
Rosa
Pattison gets a game each week but is no good.

Still, neither Russell or Hartlett are any good. Russell was appaling on Sat night and may have played his last game for Carlton.

In 2005 the picks between Bower and Edwards there are only two guys who are any good (Gilbert and Vince) and Addision has potential but is 22nd picked at the Bulldogs, Gilbert was a speculative QLDer. Bower looks good compared to that lot.

After Edwards (excl F/S) there is only Swallow, Batram and Stokes. And you gotta wonder if Stokes would have been any good playing in a shite Carlton team. Maybe Carlisle and Hooper (but Hoops has issues). Edwards is not great but there are plenty in that boat.

I am not sure if that makes me feel better about the picks or not

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Go Blues

Sick and tired of people saying Hartlett is no good....no telling how much further he would have developed if not for a shocking run with soft tissue injuries.

People say we haven't recruited KPP's, we had a good prospect but were forced to give him away to secure Judd, Harts has had a horror run. Austin is true KPP size at 193-194cm, Kreuzer will be able to play KPF. We are probably a couple short on the list, but it's not all doom and gloom, hopefully a couple of good ones might fall to us this November too.

QFT.

Our recruiting from 2002 to present has been pretty good IMO, especially when you consider the draft sanctions imposed.

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There is no footy god

I'm not disagreeing with your post or saying we should have picked differently using the benefit of hindsight, but the AA CHB would be more than handy and allow us to throw Waite forward.

Jury is out on Hughes until the end of the season IMHO...you have to give a recruiter who recruits athletes for upside a tad more time but everytime a kid does something from another club up then the comparisons start and supporters get more vocal...

I think we should have replaced Kennedy on the list with another KPP especially with Hartlett a high risk due to injury.


Interesting article in the Herald Sun where Mark Robinson outlines who is contention for jobs at the new Gold Coast Franchise and he put put forward Stephen Wells as the best recruiter with others like Clayton, Stibbard and Pelchen as ones who would be considered....not sure how that relates to Wayne Hughes and where he sits in the pecking order....

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"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

I find it amazing that people keep putting Hawthorn up as the ideal.

As far as booting out hasbeens like Rawlings, Hay and Thompson for good picks they've done wonderfully well and been brave but when you look at their overall drafting over the last five years (not including last year which is far too early to tell anything) it's nothing to write home about.

The figures below are as follows: Draft Pick#/Name/Games since drafted/Possible games since drafted (not including finals)

2002
8 Luke Brennan 19/110
51 Tim Boyle 28/110
65 Lochlan Veale 0/110

2003
25 Harry Miller 18/88
41 Zac Dawson 14/88
51 Matthew Ball 17/88
PSD7 Doug Scott 0/88

2004
2 Jarryd Roughead 61/66
5 Lance Franklin 59/66
7 Jordan Lewis 64/66
21 Thomas Murphy 15/66
26 Matthew Little 1/66
53 Simon Taylor 51/66

2005
3 Xavier Ellis 16/44
6 Beau Dowler 3/44
14 Grant Birchall 43/44
18 Max Bailey 4/44
22 Beau Muston 0/44
38 Travis Tuck 4/44
PSD3 Brent Guerra 42/44

2006
6 Mitchell Thorp 1/22
24 Brent Renouf 0/22
33 Jarryd Morton 0/22
40 Josh Kennedy 0/22
56 Garry Moss 1/22
PSD5 Josh Thurgood 2/22


Take 2004 out of that lot and it's a pretty ordinary return in terms of games played.

Some of those guys who haven't played many games may turn out to be champions but so may a number of ours. In both cases it's way too early to tell.

The myth that the Hawks "make every pick count" is obviously bullshit though as I'm sure Brennan, Veale, Miller, Ball, Scott, Little or Thurgood could tell you. All seven of those are no longer on the list.

2004 was a cracker but the value they got came from being brave in trade week and ending up with three top 7 picks. As people like to keep telling Wayne Hughes - anyone can pick those. Without those two extra picks they would have missed out on two of Roughead, Franklin and Lewis. Take those two out of the picture and the above list is very average indeed.

With those two extra players it's not a bad return and they were extremely fortunate to pick up Buddy (whom they'd already passed up at pick2!) but like all clubs (ours included) - you win some, you lose some. No recruiter's going to get it right all the time. There are 26 players on the above list. How many of those 26 are going to make it to 100 games?

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“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

How can you possibly judge Hartlett who hasn't been on the park and had no time to develop??

So he hasn't played any games at all?
3 and a 1/2 years on the list is plenty of time to judge and from what I've seen he's not good enough. IMHO Has to the end of the year to perform at AFL level or I hope he is moved on with Russell.

rubbish. he been injured for majority of it

He forgot Kinnear Beatson as a possible and more than a dark horse I suspect.

Regards Cazzesman

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Ricky Gervais - “Everyone has the right to hold whatever beliefs they want. And everyone else has the right to find those beliefs f***ing ridiculous.”

He also didn't put Swanny in the potential CEO list either, does that mean Swann isn't one of the best CEOs in the league? Of course he is, he just doesn't want to move.

I agree.

A great piece of analysis, GWS.

It certainly puts paid to a lot of eroneous assumptions re what constitutes successful recruiting.

And here's Carlton over the same period:

2002
45 Kade Simpson 68/110
60 Cameron Croad 0/110
72 Brad Fisher 72/110
79 Karl Norman 27/110
84 Mick Martyn 13/110

2003
2 Andrew Walker 74/88
57 Ricky Mott 2/88
63 Glen Bowyer 20/88
69 Jordan Bannister 49/88
72 Adrian De Luca 46/88
75 Stephen Kenna 5/88
PSD Nick Stevens 68/88

2004
9 Jordan Russell 31/66
25 Adam Hartlett 5/66
41 Luke Blackwell 23/66
73 Chris Bryan 16/66
77 Anthony Raso 0/66
PSD1 Eddie Betts 60/66

2005
1 Marc Murphy 38/44
4 Josh Kennedy 22/44
20 Paul Bower 15/44
36 Jake Edwards 2/44
PSD1 Dylan McLaren 13/44

2006
1 Bryce Gibbs 25/22
17 Shaun Hampson 4/22
19 Shaun Grigg 6/22
35 Mark Austin 1/22
51 Clint Benjamin 0/22
67 Joe Anderson 5/22
PSD1 Cain Ackland 20/22
PSD9 Cameron Cloke 9/22

That's 31 players of whom 11 are no longer at the club (although Kennedy would have been kept if not traded).

The only established senior footballers (who will definitely be on their club's lists next year) from both lists are as follows:

Hawthorn
Roughead
Franklin
Lewis
Taylor
Ellis
Birchall
Guerra


Carlton
Simpson
Fisher
Walker
Stevens
Betts
Murphy
Bower
Gibbs

Had we had the guts at the end of 2004 to trade Whitnall and perhaps Fevola maybe we might have ended up with Buddy and Roughead running around in navy.

I love Fev but if you offered me the next 10 years of Buddy versus the next 5 of Fev I wouldn't hesitate to trade. Whitnall I would have happily traded as early as 2002.

With Roughead and Franklin on our list we're miles ahead.

As far as I'm concerned Hughes (and O'Sullivan before him) have done remarkably well considering they had bugger all draft picks in 2002 and 2003 and a coach who wanted to provide a retirement home for discarded footballers for much of that time.

The only significant problem I see with our recruiting (apart from how long it took to embrace a youth policy) is that we weren't courageous enough at the trading table a few years ago when we had players with currency who weren't likely to be key parts of our next premiership tilt.

First the AFL tied our hands behind our backs and then the club refused to provide our recruiters with drafting currency via trades.

When our recruiters are actually allowed to go out and find kids we've picked well and I'd suggest better than Hawthorn all things considered.

Oh - and for those who want to add Rookies into the mix (whom, it should be remembered were overlooked half a dozen times by every club in the league - ie there'a major fluke factor involved)...

Since 2002 the five most successful Rookie picks from each club are as follows:

Hawthorn
Osborne 76
Sewell 67
Young 47
Gilham 31
McGlynn 25


Carlton
Carrazzo 66
Bentick 54
S. O'hAilpin 36
Jamison 9
Jackson 9

_________________
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

Stibbard has just been fired as head recruiter at North....

_________________
"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

Does that mean he's in the box seat...?

_________________
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

GWS, if you're going to go to the trouble to show the stats, you need to take into account that we couldn't trade anyone in 2002/03/04 because we had to re-negotiate Kouta, Lance, Camp etc etc just to stay under the cap. That extended their contracts at the club on wages that would never have been paid by any other team. By 2005/06 we didn't have anyone left of value. All our quality was under 22 and we didn't want them going anywhere.

We [REDACTED] up big-time. Hawthorn had players they could trade for good picks - we didn't. In fact, we weren't even allowed to trade into the first 2 rounds of the 2002/03 drafts.

This is why Hawthorn are in a much better position than us right now and probvably for the next 10 years.

We cannot go to sleep ala saints/tiggers. We must keep pushing to get the best list in the AFL.

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end of message

I don't disagree Duke - our list management was shithouse. That was my point. I keep hearing people bang on about how crap our selections have been but I think they stack up pretty well against the club who are flavour of the moment.

When our recruiters get the opportunity to select kids we're no worse off than Hawthorn and arguably better constraints considered. The mistake we made was overvaluing our "stars" and having far too long a list of "untouchables".

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“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

The most galling aspect of the Hawthorn comparision was our reluctance to trade players such and Whitnall when they had currency. Half of those on TC could see it ... but not the MC. They were opportunities lost.

Wow...I knew Gibbs was good, but 25 out of a possible 22 games...didn't know he was THAT good.

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Mens sana in corpore sano.

Bring back the laurel wreath logo!!!