Good report of empirical numbers disecting our current output with turnovers and clearances.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1105578/carlton-blues-geelong-cats-defy-poor-clearance-to-prove-turnover-game-is-keyIts not great because there's a few flaws in the hypothesis and he hasn't accounted for the full story. But its great reading to see the actual numbers and what we've given up, and what we've gained.
First issue I have is the assumption of the huge decline in scores from our one wood, scores from clearance is attributed to Walsh not being at Centre Bounces. If Nathan Schmook followed Carlton like we do he'd know that other than last years the 3 Finals, Walsh predominantly started off at HF and joined the midfield group thereafter.
The report suggests Hewett has filled the void for Walsh whilst he's been out injured. That is so wrong in so many ways. Not only do we know, but it has been highlighted in the media that Hewett has taken the oppositions best midfielder, and quietened him down, whilst winning plenty of ball himself to be our most outstanding mid this year. Credit where credit is due. Very different role than Walshy's. Also, Hewett was one of the starting mids at CB's more than Walsh and others last year, except in Finals.
In this article, there is no account for the rucks who obviously play a role in
ALL stoppages and ALL CBs regardless of the mids feeding from him. A most important fact. The writer has missed that important point, like some bias posters do, maybe because it didn't suit his hypothesis portraying Walsh as the reason for a drop in scores from clearances. Negligent to miss that point, but serves a purpose for his hypothesis. I only care about the facts; all of them. The whole picture. Why were our mids so dominant in the clearances last year with Pitto as No 1 ruck? We've gone down from positive 2.8 from CBs to negative 4.8. That's a huge drop and nothing to turn a blind eye to and rest on the fact we have improved our turnover goals because of that decline. Bullshit I say to that.
I hope this week, our team doesn't fall for this story, and believe all the bullshit by assuming we will solve all our clearance problems with the return of Walsh in the middle, only to see Crows come in ready to take everything away from us including the 4 points.
Our turnover game starts either from the backline, especially so in the winning goals in Lions, started from Mitch McGoverns intercept mark, and Freo games turnover in the dying minutes from Williams' daring run, and surprisingly mostly from forward half pressure ie smalls have been doing their role to create a turnover.
Those turnover goals have nothing to do with rucks. Zero. And some posters are making up stories that its due to TDK being in the ruck to suit their narrative for one ruck. Baloney.
Its a new layer in our game. We have a super fit team who can run run run, and adding Walshy's 15km to the team will see more run. If we can get our one wood back in Clearances we will be formidable. Lets remember we only won the Lions, Tigers and Freo game by a kick (discounting the decent charity goal), so turnover scores are great but not the answer alone. We need to get our one wood back.
I am strongly of the opinion the scores from clerarance (offensively and defensively) from Pitto's ruck work are far greater than the gain we have from TDK rucking all game on his own, to create, what some think we really need, more run run run. Its a fallacy. We might "look" lighter with TDK as the sole ruck, but at what cost? No reason why we can't have the 2 ruck weapons playing for us on a horses for courses basis if not a weekly, as our modus operandi.
Vossy said he's going to work on our clearances from this week. He knows Walshy is our running link man and not our contested bull. If Pitto is brought back in to fix that this week great, if not, hopefully TDK can just work to nullify the opposition ruck and have the ball fall closer to our contested bulls at the stoppages who will feed the ball out to the running man, Walsh.
But lets hope TDK isn't injured rucking on his own, because if he does, the shit hits the fan on our structures, especially without a third marking forward who would fill the void if Harry goes into the ruck. And lets hope Harry doesnt get injured in the ruck either.
Go Blues
Have to win this game and tune up our game in readiness for what could be (if we win this week) the top of the table clash with GWS, and then we will really find out where we are at this season.