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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 11:23 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
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Had a quick look at games to come for teams fighting for the last 3 spots in the 8

Most teams have 4 tough games and 2 easy games

So we are no guarantee at all


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 11:32 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
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Paddycripps wrote:
Had a quick look at games to come for teams fighting for the last 3 spots in the 8

Most teams have 4 tough games and 2 easy games

So we are no guarantee at all


A lot of those 4 tough games are against each other too which means one will win and other will lose (unless a draw).
Still reckon 12.5 will get us in, but would like 13.5 just to be certain.
The way we're playing currently, I reckon we can win all 6 but clearly that'll be an incredibly tough ask so dropping one or two would not come as a shock.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 11:49 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
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Paddycripps wrote:
Had a quick look at games to come for teams fighting for the last 3 spots in the 8

Most teams have 4 tough games and 2 easy games

So we are no guarantee at all



Which of the teams we face will beat us?
Well, we will just have to see.

I reckon we will end up higher than Saints, Effendopes, Crows & Dogs.

Can see Carlton, GWS & Cats making the 8.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 1:11 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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I am hoping GC & GWS are cooked by the time we play them

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:40 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
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Obvs we need to beat the Eagles this week (I’m most worried about the games we ‘should’ win).
Then it would be nice to beat the Pies but that would be a bonus.
After that, we play the Saints - winner on track for finals/loser will be struggling.
Then the Dees - again a bonus opportunity…
Then GC away which is a must win.
And, assuming we’re still in the hunt, the final game against GWS may determine whether we play finals or they do.
Inverse of last season…
Would really help if we can pinch one from the Pies and/or Dees games b/c I feel like we could easily drop one of the games against Saints or more likely GC or GWS…


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:18 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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I reckon 4 wins will almost definitely get us in. The game vs GWS could be a decider between us and them though. If that is one of our 4 wins then I think we're a lock.

FWIW bookies have us favoutites to make the 8 now along with Geelong, Dogs, and Cheats. Personally I can see the cheats missing and GWS taking their spot, but I am incredibly biased against them.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:37 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Quite likely our Rd 24 game is a decider, at least for one yes. Prob a small chance it's a dead rubber and both teams are in/out regardless.

Essendong play WBD this week which is gonna be pivotal and GWS host GC.

WBD then play GWS the following week (in Ballarat tho).


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:15 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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I can see us beating Weagles, Pies and Dees.
We will get up for the games against Top 4, and they are set in the 4, playing for a home Final, which for the Dees is a brifge too far away imo.

Its the Saints, GCS and GWS games that may challenge us to focus for 4 quarters.

I expect Boydy, naturally, Harry & Kennedy to be back for the last 2 games, and like last year, Marchbank finding a bit of form that can't be ignored.

Come on Blues.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2023 10:55 pm 
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Trevor Keogh
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I plugged into the ladder predictor a few days ago and had Essendope slipping out of the 8 (to St K) by a minimal percentage after the last round. I'm no mathematician so no deliberate rigging there - pleasant surprise. We were in comfortably, but I think I gave us a win against Melbourne.

I have to go back and try again...much like Carlton.

Crazy days.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 6:25 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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Good outcome with Melbourne managing to hold on against Adelaide. Now we just need North to hold on against st kilda


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 6:52 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Norf are bloody useless!


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 7:36 pm 
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Trevor Keogh
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Norf, Dorks, Tiggers, almost Crows...

We gotta do it ourselves.

Starting this Friday.

:fight:

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 7:43 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Would be funny if we don't end up in the 8 until the last 2 minutes this year lol.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 8:35 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Absolute dicktease from North & Hawks this round

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 8:53 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Last round of the year needing to beat GWS for spot in finals. Go into the last quarter 4 goals up Newman has held Toby Greene to 2 disposals all game. Newman limps off with suspected calf strain in the opening minutes of the last. Toby gets off the leash and kicks 4 last quarter goals . Breaking the hearts of those long suffering Blues supporters again.

You can just see it

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:00 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Is there any possibility GWS could be cooked by that game?

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:04 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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IF....

we win all
Melb lose to us, Richmond, Sydney
plus other 'reasonable' results

...Blues can (mathematically speaking) jag it for 4th.

Alternatively, one loss could still result in 5th which will be important as it avoids a Preliminary against Colli-filth


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:07 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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CK95 wrote:
Is there any possibility GWS could be cooked by that game?

No problem:

GWS will lose two of WB, Port, Syd and that will be it for them.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:27 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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missnaut wrote:
Port at Marvel - they've gotta lose at some point right?

Eagles at Marvel - lol well.

Filth at the G - can't see it happening. Edit - If it bleeds, etc.

Saints at Marvel - they are gettable. they're bog @#$%&! average

Melb at the G - see above, especially if they're having one of their semi-regular stinker games. I don't rate them much

GCS at GC - we usually suck up there, but if they're out of finals contention they might have shut up shop. looking likely they're done

Giants at Marvel - this could be the decider!! yep
Port - tick
Eagles - tick


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:37 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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For the worry-warts re missing finals:

Winning the 5 in a row sets a demarcation point - have only missed twice ( '74, '92 ) in sixty years after doing that but made 21.

and of course picked up 8 flags.


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