Given the results of the weekend, I now think that 12 wins will be enough.
Our outcome is totally in our own hands. We play proverbial '8 point' games against Saints, Geelong and Collingwood in the run home. And in a way, Freo too.
I think only Coll can jump into the eight from here, which means only one team might drop out. I think us and StK are the most vulnerable but we have an extra win in hand and they have arguably a tougher run home than we do. If we beat them, its all over IMO.
Of those in contention: Carl needs 3 wins to get to 12, or 4 to get to 13. Rich, Syd, StK, Coll need 4 wins to get to 12 or 5 wins to get to 13. And the Bulldogs need 5 and 6 respectively.
On my assessment: Richmond - should make 12 wins easily and probably 13 wins (with games to come against WCE, GCS, Kang, PA, Hawks & Ess, as well as Geel, Freo & Bris). Sydney - same as Richmond. (They play StK twice, Ess, WB, Adel, GWS, and Kangas as well as Freo & Coll) Coll - looks likely to be able to get to 12 wins and maybe even 13 (with winnable games against GWS, GCS, Kangas, Adel, Ess as well as Melb, Syd and of course us in the last round which may make all the diff for them) StK - might struggle from here unless they have some huge wins against higher ranked teams. They do play WB, WCE and Hawks but winning all 3 of those only gets them to 11 wins. They would also need to beat one of us, Syd, Freo, Geel or Bris... and two of those games to get to 13 wins. Carl - I reckon we sit in a similar position to Collingwood in that we are likely to be able to get to 12 wins and most likely 13 - esp if we can beat Coll in the last round (We'd go in favourites against WCE, GWS and Adel; and need one more against Freo, Stk, Geel, Bris, Melb or Coll for 13 wins. Bulldogs - I just don't think they'll even go close needing 3 wins to get to 12 from games against Bris, Syd, StK, Melb, Geel and Freo on top of winning all their more winnable games against Hawks (twice) & GWS.
The results that could throw us out would have StK beating Sydney twice as well as WB, WCE & Hawks; but Sydney beating all of Ess, WB, Adel, GWS & Kangas; or if StK beats us and Sydney once. And Sydney wins all those... could happen but I doubt it.
Last edited by 17th Premiership on Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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