Coach B wrote:
Thanks for contributing Bruce, fantastic to hear directly how statistical analysis plays out in modern sport and specifically how it applies to the Blues.
One thing about your approach that interests me, and I have read an article you have written on the topic, is that you do your analysis on the teams lists and not the team that is selected from week to week.
I understand that over the longer run there isn't a great deal of difference in the statistical results, although I suspect if you were using the data for gaming purposes there may be some shorter term variance.
Therefore, if you can reasonably accurately determine a teams likely outcome at the start of the season it shows that the rate of improvement of a list over one season usually can't be material and confirms that a rebuilding process takes time.
Thanks again for producing the Arc Footy.
CB
Cheers.
Actually, my system doesn't use any data on player lists at all. It's just based on teams' past results. That means:
1) My system doesn't know about off season changes (retirements, trades, etc.) that could affect your team's performance this year; and
2) My system doesn't know about injuries that could affect your team's performance through the year.
The first problem isn't as big as you'd think. After a few weeks' worth of results, the model has a reasonably good read on where each team is at. The second issue can be a problem for week-to-week tipping, but it's far less of a problem than you might think. Individual player injuries are often less important to a team's chances than fans reckon.
The only situations in which my model struggles (temporarily) are where there are really big changes in a playing list, like Essendon* 2016 and Essendon* 2017, or to a lesser extent North Melbourne 2017.
FYI Champion Data maintains a model which is based on teams' likely best 22 players. The accuracy of their predictions is in the same ballpark as mine - and my simulations outperformed theirs last year
https://thearcfooty.com/2018/02/08/how- ... -stack-up/.
Cheers
Matt