If we assume Essendon* are barred from the first two rounds of the draft, and I use a ladder order based on the AFL ladder predictor, this is what the first round of the draft will look like, bearing in mind GWS activated their compensation pick to come in at the end of the non-finalists' first round pick, and Gold Coast activated theirs at the end of the first round.
1> GWS 2> Melbourne 3> Bulldogs 4> St Kilda 5> Gold Coast 6> Carlton 7> Lions 8> West Coast 9> GWS 10> Port Adelaide 11> North Melbourne 12> Richmond 13> Collingwood 14> Fremantle 15> Geelong 16> Sydney 17> Hawthorn 18> Gold Coast
This would give clubs the following picks in the first 3 rounds:
Adelaide: 43 Brisbane: 7, 25, 41 Carlton: 6, 24, 40 Collingwood: 13, 30, 47 Essendon*: 48 Fremantle, 14, 31, 49 Geelong: 15, 32, 50 Gold Coast: 5, 18, 23, 39 GWS: 1, 9, 19, 35 Hawthorn: 17, 34, 52 Melbourne: 2, 20, 36 North Melbourne: 11, 28, 45 Port Adelaide: 10, 27, 44 Richmond: 12, 29, 46 St Kilda: 4, 22, 38 Sydney: 16, 33, 51 West Coast: 8, 26, 42 Western Bulldogs: 3, 21, 37
My targets in that draft are Gardiner, Hourigan and Salem. Going by that draft order, I think Gardiner could last till 12, depending on what happens with pick 9. I think Hourigan would go to Fremantle with their first pick, Salem could go anywhere from 11-22.
Ergo, I'd trade pick 6 and 24 to GWS for pick 9, 19 and a fringe player (lets say Golds). 9 takes care of Gardiner, 19 may not get Salem, but would still net us a quality mid (Cal Twomey and a few other phantom drafts have Dunstan being the slider).
Chris Yarran to Fremantle for pick 14 would be sufficient for me also, (hell, throw in pick 40 for pick 49 if need be).
Hampson or Warnock to whoever for something 35 onwards would net us Matt Honeychurch.
Looking at that, for the loss of Yarran and one of the back up rucks, we'd net 3 of the best talents in the draft (a key forward, key defender and a quality mid) as well as a very good speculative pick in Honeychurch.
_________________ BLUES 2010: PAV AND JUDD = FLAGS. DOING IT FOR THE LOVE OF DICK PRATT.
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