A well researched response by an ex TCer, Cammo, can be found at another site.
Here is what he had to say...
Quote: M.I.A
Carlton will be without Brett Thornton and Brad Fisher. Anthony Koutoufides is still in doubt.
Kangaroos will be missing Daniel Motlop, and possibly Corey McKernan, which can only be considered a bonus to Dean Laidley's men.
Key Match Ups
Carlton will approach their key match-up's on the Kangaroos' tall forwards with the most supreme caution, given that their forward structure is still relatively unknown at this stage. Will they play Rocca, Thompson and Petrie on the ground all at the one time? In the absence of Brett Thornton this may be a very likely scenario. I'd expect Livingston to go to Sav, Karl Norman to take Drew Petrie and as to who will take Thompson is a very hard one indeed, I'd expect the job to go to Digby Morrell first up, with Ian Prendergast as the 4th option, the In Case of Emergency would be shifting Lance Whitnall to CHB, which really would signal alarm bells in the Carlton camp.
In the midfield, the influence of the 2 Daniel's, Harris and Wells will need to be nullified. I see Jordan Bannister as being given the first crack at Daniel Wells, with Trent Sporn and Callum Chambers as the back up plans. I think that Heath Scotland will be opposed to Daniel Harris, whilst not closely checking Harris, but certainly attempting to match him for effectiveness. If this doesn't work, and Harris is able to get the ball down to the 3 big talls, then perhaps Cory McGrath will be summoned, who will be more than likely opposed to Brent Harvey at the opening bounce.
Kangaroos - Unlike most of Carlton's previous opponents to date, the Kangaroos have options as to who will take on the most dominate forward combination in the pre-season in Fevola and Whitnall.
Laidley is most likely to start Leigh Brown on Lance Whitnall, which would be an interesting duel, given their similiar builds and game style, whilst Leigh Colbert may get the job on Fevola, as I cannot see Shannon Watt being given such a big job on the in-form forward of the competition first up.
Both Watt and Glenn Archer remain as other options, I expect them to take the 3rd floating tall, whether that be Adrian DeLuca or Jarrad Waite whilst rotating off the bench.
Laidley's attempts to curb the brilliance of Matthew Lappin will start with the largely underrated Troy Makepeace, who is as good a chance to leave the dangerous Lappin accountable as any in the league.
Brady Rawlings and Scott Camporeale will most likely resume their battles, with Rawlings having a slight edge over Camporeale from last year. This would leave Michael Firrito to possibly tag Nick Stevens, assuming he will make the 22 after a flying start to 2004 which ended prematurely with Port Melbourne.
Keys To Victory
Carlton - The same that has procured victory the last 4 weeks- giving Fev and Lance a huge supply of the ball in the air and them converting. That rebounding backline will be tested to cover the loss of Thornton, but if the returning Karl Norman is able to cover for him, and given his form for the Bullants against Box Hill yesterday, it seems that is exceptionally plausible.
Kangaroos - For the Kangaroos to get up here, their forward line needs to click right from the get go. With an undersized backline that lacks options opposing the likes of Thompson, Rocca and Petrie, if a score is converted, then we may have an upset on our hands.
Prediction - Seeing too many comparisons between Carlton of '05 and the Saints of '96, in winning the pre-season competition by surprise, then going out and playing Nth in the first round minus a key player and getting a hiding. A loss would do the Blues the world of good, in bringing some of our younger players back to earth and realising the real task at hand.
Cannot see Carlton being able to restrict the Kangaroos' key forwards whilst being able to kick the scores they have at the Dome in recent weeks.
Kangaroos by 5, also in a thriller.
|
