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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 8:26 pm 
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Ken Hands

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Absolute must win game, especially considering we have Melbourne the week after.

I actually can't believe how tight it still is for us, even after beating the top 2 sides.

The way it's going, 12.5 wins won't be enough. We'll probably only be able to afford to lose to Melbourne.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:25 pm 
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John James

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BamBam7 wrote:
Absolute must win game, especially considering we have Melbourne the week after.

I actually can't believe how tight it still is for us, even after beating the top 2 sides.

The way it's going, 12.5 wins won't be enough. We'll probably only be able to afford to lose to Melbourne.


Giants are coming too, on very recent form at least.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:31 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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We currently play 3 top 8 sides and go up to the GC for the other. One week at a time. We must keep winning.


Last edited by SurreyBlue on Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:33 pm 
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Serge Silvagni
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Won't lose another game.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:36 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Ghost of PrincesPark wrote:
Won't lose another game.


Yep - It's back. :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:58 pm 
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Ken Hands

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I was messing around with the ladder predictor, and as many others have pointed out, if we only drop the Melbourne game, we finish 5th.

But if we drop the St Kilda and Melbourne games, we could finish 9th!

Granted, this relies on Richmond beating Melbourne tomorrow in order for the tigers to finish 5th. With a loss tomorrow, Richmond would finish 9th instead. That's how tight it is!


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:07 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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BamBam7 wrote:
Absolute must win game, especially considering we have Melbourne the week after.

I actually can't believe how tight it still is for us, even after beating the top 2 sides.

The way it's going, 12.5 wins won't be enough. We'll probably only be able to afford to lose to Melbourne.


12.5 wins will almost definitely be enough. Would like to see a ladder predictor where we finish with 12.5 wins and don’t make it. It would take a pretty extraordinary sequence of results


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:13 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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BamBam7 wrote:
I was messing around with the ladder predictor, and as many others have pointed out, if we only drop the Melbourne game, we finish 5th.

But if we drop the St Kilda and Melbourne games, we could finish 9th!

Granted, this relies on Richmond beating Melbourne tomorrow in order for the tigers to finish 5th. With a loss tomorrow, Richmond would finish 9th instead. That's how tight it is!


Okay you just answered that last post. Does that also rely on Richmond beating dogs and st kilda? Can’t see them beating Melbourne and Dogs


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:15 pm 
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Ken Hands

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jake_h03 wrote:
BamBam7 wrote:
Absolute must win game, especially considering we have Melbourne the week after.

I actually can't believe how tight it still is for us, even after beating the top 2 sides.

The way it's going, 12.5 wins won't be enough. We'll probably only be able to afford to lose to Melbourne.


12.5 wins will almost definitely be enough. Would like to see a ladder predictor where we finish with 12.5 wins and don’t make it. It would take a pretty extraordinary sequence of results


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Read the post above yours. Richmond beating Melbourne tomorrow is the only scenario I could find where we miss with 12.5 wins.

So I'm a bit more relaxed now. Pending tomorrow's game, of course. :P

FYI, in the doomsday scenario, I had:

Coll 20
Port 17
Lions 16
Demons 16
Tigers 13.5
Dogs 13
Saints 13
Giants 13

Blues 12.5


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:15 pm 
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Ken Hands

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We really need to check for updates before we post. :P


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:21 pm 
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Ken Hands

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jake_h03 wrote:
BamBam7 wrote:
I was messing around with the ladder predictor, and as many others have pointed out, if we only drop the Melbourne game, we finish 5th.

But if we drop the St Kilda and Melbourne games, we could finish 9th!

Granted, this relies on Richmond beating Melbourne tomorrow in order for the tigers to finish 5th. With a loss tomorrow, Richmond would finish 9th instead. That's how tight it is!


Okay you just answered that last post. Does that also rely on Richmond beating dogs and st kilda? Can’t see them beating Melbourne and Dogs


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Yeah, they would need to win the next 4 and then lose to Port in the last round.

If they beat Melbourne, they'll be confident they can beat the Dogs and Saints. Neither look much chop at the moment (which I guess means we should beat the Saints, and this whole scenario is redundant :P).


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:21 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:24 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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BamBam7 wrote:
jake_h03 wrote:
BamBam7 wrote:
I was messing around with the ladder predictor, and as many others have pointed out, if we only drop the Melbourne game, we finish 5th.

But if we drop the St Kilda and Melbourne games, we could finish 9th!

Granted, this relies on Richmond beating Melbourne tomorrow in order for the tigers to finish 5th. With a loss tomorrow, Richmond would finish 9th instead. That's how tight it is!


Okay you just answered that last post. Does that also rely on Richmond beating dogs and st kilda? Can’t see them beating Melbourne and Dogs


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Yeah, they would need to win the next 4 and then lose to Port in the last round.

If they beat Melbourne, they'll be confident they can beat the Dogs and Saints. Neither look much chop at the moment (which I guess means we should beat the Saints, and this whole scenario is redundant :P).


Yeah ok. They’re outsiders for both Melbourne and dogs. Hard to see them winning either let alone both. And they’re probably only just better than 50/50 vs saints

Richmond are pretty trash. Outplayed by hawks and got away with it. Didn’t beat west coast by 10 goals + which counts as a loss. Got belted by Brisbane


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:28 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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On the upside, If Richmond do win tomorrow, we will be a real chance for top 4. We would need to win every game and need Sydney to beat Melbourne at the SCG in the last round.

Then we’d have a qualifying final against the filth!


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:35 pm 
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Ken Hands

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Haha, I like that scenario better.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:40 pm 
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Serge Silvagni
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Yeah, we need more chill folks.

This is 1995 & 1945: a straight unbeaten run all the way.

The boys have finally turned the corner. Has anyone been watching the footy?

I know I have.
I remember the feelings of '95 like it was yesterday and this team has exactly the same smell about it.
Tho in truth even the '95 side didn't win BIG like this one has been.

WE ARE BACK!

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2023 10:43 am 
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Harry Vallence
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JSOS for Pitto, Dow elevated for Cerra. Probably Curnow again sub.

It just doesn't speak true to formlines that we have a huge six week run like this only to drop games to St Kilda or the Gold Coast. Melbourne I'm 50/50 on. GWS a concern if we have nothing to play for and they do. Ideally we're playing for a top four spot in that last game.

Not interested in "just making it" at this point. If we've played this well, just to drop games to teams like the Saints and the Suns, we don't deserve to be there and weren't going to do anything anyway.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2023 10:48 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Agreed, that's why I find it strange when people hope for (for example) Melbourne to beat Richmond. I'm no longer looking down and hoping to sneak into the 8 with 12.5 wins, I'm looking up and hoping for 5th, or 4th if the Dees slip today.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:07 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Saint's is the exact kind of let down game we've had in the past. getting ahead of ourselves. i kinda feel this week will show us more who we are than the pies game. easy to get up for top of the table, flag faves, pies. and then to emphatically win.

do we switch off on the saints like we have done the last 2 decades... or do we pummel them.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:12 am 
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Harry Vallence
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GreatEx wrote:
Agreed, that's why I find it strange when people hope for (for example) Melbourne to beat Richmond. I'm no longer looking down and hoping to sneak into the 8 with 12.5 wins, I'm looking up and hoping for 5th, or 4th if the Dees slip today.


Richmond win today and top four is well and truly open.

We beat Melbourne and they lose to Sydney in the last game of the year, and it's ours for the taking.

Melbourne win today and the top four is now effectively shut.


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