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| Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the nu-WOOHOOOO…! http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=37497 |
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| Author: | Mickstar [ Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
My live ladder extends to our next game and no further . |
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| Author: | 17th Premiership [ Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
Mickstar wrote: My live ladder extends to our next game and no further . Hopefully, the players use the same live ladder! Or one that extends out no more than 1 quarter at a time! |
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| Author: | bondiblue [ Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
17th Premiership wrote: Mickstar wrote: My live ladder extends to our next game and no further . Hopefully, the players use the same live ladder! Or one that extends out no more than 1 quarter at a time! I like this 1 quarter at a time approach. |
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| Author: | missnaut [ Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
bondiblue wrote: Hornet wrote: https://www.liveladders.com/AFL/ AFL Live Ladder has us projected for 8th... 56 points (5 more wins)... 107% We have to aim for 7th. No one has lost a game from 7th spot this year...could be something in that.  |
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| Author: | verbs [ Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
Could come down to the last game against Collingwood. We should beat West Coast, GWS and Adelaide which gives us 12. 13 and finals in Round 23 is on the cards. A few upsets against St Kilda, Brisbane or Melbourne and it's elementary. Toinght's game went with the betting market. |
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| Author: | bluedog [ Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
Until each team plays each other the same number of times, the AFL, as a fair dinkum competition, cannot be taken seriously. |
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| Author: | tommi [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
tommi wrote: tommi wrote: tommi wrote: Sydney…Marvel…………Tick Colon…..MCG………….…Booo Dirty filthy cheating Black an Red @#%&’S…MCG………TICK Tiges…..MCG…………...Booo Freo…….Marvel… Saints….Marvel… Eagles...Optus… Cats…….MCG… Giants….Marvel… Crows....Adelaide Oval… Brian’s.…Gabba… Dees…….MCG… Colon…..MCG…! i guess something along the lines of…surely we can win 7 out of 12…with our game plan as it is…! Ok…. Ok……………….ok…! kindest regards tommi Right oh…9 games left…we need at least 4 wins…it’s a ring dinga ding season… |
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| Author: | SurreyBlue [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
bluedog wrote: Until each team plays each other the same number of times, the AFL, as a fair dinkum competition, cannot be taken seriously. 
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| Author: | bluehammer [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are very. |
Exactly. Play North and WC twice and you get 16 points and 200% Geelong 
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| Author: | missnaut [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
bluehammer wrote: Exactly. Play North and WC twice and you get 16 points and 200% Yet there was some stupid article published in The Age a couple of weeks ago going on about how we've benefited the most from our "soft draw".
Geelong |
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| Author: | keogh [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
bluehammer wrote: Exactly. Play North and WC twice and you get 16 points and 200% Geelong I reckon WC will beat Geelong this weekend |
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| Author: | david31 [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
No point thinking too far ahead but we need to find a way to snag one win out of the next two vs Freo at home and the Aints. No team has ever missed the finals legitimately with 13 wins since the top 8 system was implemented in 2000. The exception of course is the Essendon* drug team who got booted with 14 wins in 2013. The problem is with two historically bad teams and all the fringe top 8 teams (Pies, Suns and Dogs) continuing to win, it may be the first time that 14 wins are needed to make the 8. Next two games are important. Win none and we could drop out of the 8. Win one and we’re looking safe for the 8. Win 2 and we’re basically locked in for finals. |
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| Author: | kingkerna [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are very. |
Very interesting looking at us V Saints the next two weeks. If we can somehow beat Freo and they lose to Sydney we could be playing them in an early elimination final the week after Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk |
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| Author: | killpies [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
Port now doing us favours after * last night. Go Weagles |
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| Author: | bondiblue [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
bluedog wrote: Until each team plays each other the same number of times, the AFL, as a fair dinkum competition, cannot be taken seriously. I love that quote Ive read it for years, and still agree with it. |
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| Author: | missnaut [ Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are very. |
Actual huge round of footy this round. 1v2 (Bris and Melb) 3v5 (Freo and us) 4v6 (Geel and Rich) 7v8 (Syd and StK) Thoughts on best outcomes for us? I'm not too fussed on 1v2, even if we win those teams have a way bigger % than us. Brisbane would want to prove they win in Melb tho. Prob prefer Geelong to win as it keeps Richmond back on the pack and I think we will finish below them % wise at least. Not sure on Syd/StK. If Saints lose we play them off a 3 game losing streak and I always reckon it's better playing teams after a win. Also want GWS to beat the Filth obv. |
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| Author: | missnaut [ Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are very. |
I forgot the match of the round, West Coast v Essendon* this Friday night!! |
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| Author: | 17th Premiership [ Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
Given the results of the weekend, I now think that 12 wins will be enough. Our outcome is totally in our own hands. We play proverbial '8 point' games against Saints, Geelong and Collingwood in the run home. And in a way, Freo too. I think only Coll can jump into the eight from here, which means only one team might drop out. I think us and StK are the most vulnerable but we have an extra win in hand and they have arguably a tougher run home than we do. If we beat them, its all over IMO. Of those in contention: Carl needs 3 wins to get to 12, or 4 to get to 13. Rich, Syd, StK, Coll need 4 wins to get to 12 or 5 wins to get to 13. And the Bulldogs need 5 and 6 respectively. On my assessment: Richmond - should make 12 wins easily and probably 13 wins (with games to come against WCE, GCS, Kang, PA, Hawks & Ess, as well as Geel, Freo & Bris). Sydney - same as Richmond. (They play StK twice, Ess, WB, Adel, GWS, and Kangas as well as Freo & Coll) Coll - looks likely to be able to get to 12 wins and maybe even 13 (with winnable games against GWS, GCS, Kangas, Adel, Ess as well as Melb, Syd and of course us in the last round which may make all the diff for them) StK - might struggle from here unless they have some huge wins against higher ranked teams. They do play WB, WCE and Hawks but winning all 3 of those only gets them to 11 wins. They would also need to beat one of us, Syd, Freo, Geel or Bris... and two of those games to get to 13 wins. Carl - I reckon we sit in a similar position to Collingwood in that we are likely to be able to get to 12 wins and most likely 13 - esp if we can beat Coll in the last round (We'd go in favourites against WCE, GWS and Adel; and need one more against Freo, Stk, Geel, Bris, Melb or Coll for 13 wins. Bulldogs - I just don't think they'll even go close needing 3 wins to get to 12 from games against Bris, Syd, StK, Melb, Geel and Freo on top of winning all their more winnable games against Hawks (twice) & GWS. The results that could throw us out would have StK beating Sydney twice as well as WB, WCE & Hawks; but Sydney beating all of Ess, WB, Adel, GWS & Kangas; or if StK beats us and Sydney once. And Sydney wins all those... could happen but I doubt it. |
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| Author: | GreatEx [ Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
Thanks for noting that StK and Syd play each other twice. I didn't realise that, but it makes both of them losing last weekend against low-ranked opposition even more significant. It's really softened the top 8 win requirement, which was threatening to go as high as 14. Having said that, I'd be disappointed with a 13-9 record after being 9-3 (and 8-2). That would leave us with little momentum going into September. I'd like to think we have enough about us to hit the 15 win mark and a top six spot. If Weiters and Pitto are back in the next 2-3 weeks then we have no excuses. |
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| Author: | Sydney Blue [ Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v |
GreatEx wrote: Thanks for noting that StK and Syd play each other twice. I didn't realise that, but it makes both of them losing last weekend against low-ranked opposition even more significant. It's really softened the top 8 win requirement, which was threatening to go as high as 14. Having said that, I'd be disappointed with a 13-9 record after being 9-3 (and 8-2). That would leave us with little momentum going into September. I'd like to think we have enough about us to hit the 15 win mark and a top six spot. If Weiters and Pitto are back in the next 2-3 weeks then we have no excuses. Still think 13 and % is the minimum but if we get more upsets like the weekend it will be interesting 6 wins has you in the 8 at half way that is usually a good indicator but every time I look at it I come up with 14 in 8th spot Teams like Port Dogs Suns Hawks Essendon* Adelaide are going to pinch wins they shouldn't and I cant see West Coast losing everything either - McGovern stays on the park Saturday night they could have beaten Geelong right now every team in the 8 could miss the 8 |
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