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Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the nu-WOOHOOOO…!
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Author:  jezzarules [ Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
tommi wrote:
There ya go….

DO the meth folk…!


kindest regards tommi

I think it's now down to two possible outcomes.
As it stands now we'll either make it or we won't.
Author:  tommi [ Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Orrr DOES it….!


kindest regards tommi
Author:  GreatEx [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Just had a look at our fixtures again. Remember how most of us said we had a soft draw? But of the teams we play twice - Ric, Col, Fre, Ade, Gws - three of them are top 8 and two of them strong contenders for top 4. None in the bottom 4. So if we make it, we'll deserve it.
Author:  Blue Vain [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Absolutely. I read an article recently that rated the remaining draw for teams. The team rated hardest played one less bottom 8 team than us.
But it didn't calculate that our 3 remaining games against non-victorian teams are all away.
As you said, if we make it, we'll deserve it.
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Hate to say it but I think there's a big chance we miss out. Seems extraordinary given we've been in the 8 all year but I just worry on several fronts ...

- our recent form is poor with the WLWLWL trend
- teams that threaten to surpass us Coll and Rich have easier draws than us IMO and seem to have better form.
- Yes we have WC and Adel but both those teams are actually going OK and our other games are against the top sides in terms of ladder and form

Obviously we will get some players back but Pitto and McG are probably another 2 weeks off and will be short of a gallop
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Maybe it's just not our year

Injuries

The losses to Rich and Coll could prove costly bec they're 8 pt losses really
Author:  missnaut [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:15 am ]
Post subject:  Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are very.
The main issue this year is you can't make it on 11-12 wins like most other years.
Author:  Mickstar [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Paddycripps wrote:
Hate to say it but I think there's a big chance we miss out. Seems extraordinary given we've been in the 8 all year but I just worry on several fronts ...

- our recent form is poor with the WLWLWL trend
- teams that threaten to surpass us Coll and Rich have easier draws than us IMO and seem to have better form.
- Yes we have WC and Adel but both those teams are actually going OK and our other games are against the top sides in terms of ladder and form

Obviously we will get some players back but Pitto and McG are probably another 2 weeks off and will be short of a gallop


Form is a fickle thing . As quick as it goes it can come back again . Very hard to maintain for a lengthy period .
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Mickstar wrote:
Paddycripps wrote:
Hate to say it but I think there's a big chance we miss out. Seems extraordinary given we've been in the 8 all year but I just worry on several fronts ...

- our recent form is poor with the WLWLWL trend
- teams that threaten to surpass us Coll and Rich have easier draws than us IMO and seem to have better form.
- Yes we have WC and Adel but both those teams are actually going OK and our other games are against the top sides in terms of ladder and form

Obviously we will get some players back but Pitto and McG are probably another 2 weeks off and will be short of a gallop


Form is a fickle thing . As quick as it goes it can come back again . Very hard to maintain for a lengthy period .


Yes true.

I think we are seeing the game at an unique time in history too

I mean game styles change during the year and also in game

Tactics

Ways of winning

Strengths

Voss is right to say we can't rely on clearances

But reality is that's what gave us a lot of early wins

We've added better ball movement but still aren't winning games consistently

Bad kicking didn't help but equally our starts have been poor of late

So many elements

In the 80s it was a lot simpler

Winning this week's game is massive. Not just do we need the W but we need to buy Pitto time and to a lesser extent McG and big Durds

The lack of a tall defender has cost us around 2 goals a game IMO

And TDK needs help now
Author:  GreatEx [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Good news is if we continue the WLWL form then we'll end the season 14-8 and comfortably in the 8. And I don't think our 3 losses in the last 5 are indicative of loss of form. Collingwood: lost a critical part of the team structure in the first few minutes where we were already way down on numbers, still could have nicked it if umpires had done their job. Richmond: blundered strategically early, then outplayed the opposition but came up short. St Kilda: team playing for survival, we still dominated scoring opportunities and would have won easily with a mediocre set shot return. In between, we thrashed a top four side while we were down to bare bones in terms of personnel. I'm not nearly as concerned as the TC vocal majority, we are still very good and have key personnel set to return.
Author:  jezzarules [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Blue Vain wrote:
Absolutely. I read an article recently that rated the remaining draw for teams. The team rated hardest played one less bottom 8 team than us.
But it didn't calculate that our 3 remaining games against non-victorian teams are all away.
As you said, if we make it, we'll deserve it.

We play GWS at home
Author:  Blue Vain [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
jezzarules wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
Absolutely. I read an article recently that rated the remaining draw for teams. The team rated hardest played one less bottom 8 team than us.
But it didn't calculate that our 3 remaining games against non-victorian teams are all away.
As you said, if we make it, we'll deserve it.

We play GWS at home


I forgot about them. 3 of 4. WC, Brisbane and Adelaide.
Author:  bluehammer [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Yep. We'll make it and we'll deserve it
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Adel in Adel and Bris in Bris makes these games a lot harder.
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
OK so I have had a quick look at the ladder and games in the run home.
I have focussed on Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Sydney, St Kilda and Bulldogs as these I see as our main competitors.
I have tried to guess which games each of these teams win.

I haven't worried about Melbourne, Geelong, Brisbane and Fremantle as I just as much assume these teams will make the 8.

Obviously this sort of thing is hard to do as I won't get anywhere near 100% of these tips correct but I'd like to think it provides a guide in the wash up.
I have given a W to games I think teams should win and sort of split the difference a bit on other games.
And I have taken in recent form.

So this is the ladder I end up with ... Remember I haven't done the math on the top 4 so have just plonked them in there not thinking about what seed they end up with...

1 Melbourne
2 Geelong
3 Brisbane
4 Fremantle

5 Collingwood (15 wins)
6 Richmond (14 wins, higher % than Carlton)
7 Carlton (14 wins)
8 Sydney (13 wins)

9 St Kilda (12 wins)
10 Bulldogs (11 wins)

IMO Collingwood and Richmond have the easiest runs home and have the best formline right now
St Kilda and Bulldogs have the hardest run home

So I am really banking on St Kilda and Bulldogs missing the 8 which means we likely get in
Author:  jezzarules [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
This week's key games

St Kilda v Freo
Swans v Bulldogs
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
GreatEx wrote:
Good news is if we continue the WLWL form then we'll end the season 14-8 and comfortably in the 8. And I don't think our 3 losses in the last 5 are indicative of loss of form. Collingwood: lost a critical part of the team structure in the first few minutes where we were already way down on numbers, still could have nicked it if umpires had done their job. Richmond: blundered strategically early, then outplayed the opposition but came up short. St Kilda: team playing for survival, we still dominated scoring opportunities and would have won easily with a mediocre set shot return. In between, we thrashed a top four side while we were down to bare bones in terms of personnel. I'm not nearly as concerned as the TC vocal majority, we are still very good and have key personnel set to return.


I like your positive outlook, and actually find a bit of it rubs off on me :thumbsup:

But equally I must say I don't believe in the retrospective views. I believe you lose you lose and there are reasons for it.
If we lost to the Tigers because we blundered strategically early then that is on us and nobody else.
Equally the St Kilda loss shows we haven't yet come to grips with being the hunted. Better teams can handle that better than us.
I just don't take excuses unless they are really extreme.

I get what you are saying, I really do, but I just think the Win Loss at the end of the day is what it is.
Yes there are reasons but ultimately that is a reflection that we just aren't there yet as a football team/club.

I guess for the the compromise is in the middle.
If we eradicate some of the things holding us back then we could thrive as we seem to have plenty of good things in place.
Author:  Paddycripps [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
jezzarules wrote:
This week's key games

St Kilda v Freo
Swans v Bulldogs


And Carl vs WC
Author:  jezzarules [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Paddycripps wrote:
jezzarules wrote:
This week's key games

St Kilda v Freo
Swans v Bulldogs


And Carl vs WC

Hopefully it doesn't become one
Author:  GreatEx [ Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hey folk…I’ve been doing some math…and the numbers are v
Paddycripps wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
Good news is if we continue the WLWL form then we'll end the season 14-8 and comfortably in the 8. And I don't think our 3 losses in the last 5 are indicative of loss of form. Collingwood: lost a critical part of the team structure in the first few minutes where we were already way down on numbers, still could have nicked it if umpires had done their job. Richmond: blundered strategically early, then outplayed the opposition but came up short. St Kilda: team playing for survival, we still dominated scoring opportunities and would have won easily with a mediocre set shot return. In between, we thrashed a top four side while we were down to bare bones in terms of personnel. I'm not nearly as concerned as the TC vocal majority, we are still very good and have key personnel set to return.


I like your positive outlook, and actually find a bit of it rubs off on me :thumbsup:

But equally I must say I don't believe in the retrospective views. I believe you lose you lose and there are reasons for it.
If we lost to the Tigers because we blundered strategically early then that is on us and nobody else.
Equally the St Kilda loss shows we haven't yet come to grips with being the hunted. Better teams can handle that better than us.
I just don't take excuses unless they are really extreme.

I get what you are saying, I really do, but I just think the Win Loss at the end of the day is what it is.
Yes there are reasons but ultimately that is a reflection that we just aren't there yet as a football team/club.

I guess for the the compromise is in the middle.
If we eradicate some of the things holding us back then we could thrive as we seem to have plenty of good things in place.


Yeah absolutely, I'm not saying we didn't deserve to lose the games or were unlucky or anything, just that I don't see any signs of malaise setting in, or fundamental weaknesses that we can't overcome. I hope that the 6-goal start against Richmond is a one-off and that we'll approach the next wet game as we did from midway through the 2nd quarter onwards. And we won't have the goalscoring yips every week, we've proven pretty efficient in the F50 across the season.
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