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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:18 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 22924
Location: Bondi Beach
GreatEx wrote:
Good news is if we continue the WLWL form then we'll end the season 14-8 and comfortably in the 8. And I don't think our 3 losses in the last 5 are indicative of loss of form. Collingwood: lost a critical part of the team structure in the first few minutes where we were already way down on numbers, still could have nicked it if umpires had done their job. Richmond: blundered strategically early, then outplayed the opposition but came up short. St Kilda: team playing for survival, we still dominated scoring opportunities and would have won easily with a mediocre set shot return. In between, we thrashed a top four side while we were down to bare bones in terms of personnel. I'm not nearly as concerned as the TC vocal majority, we are still very good and have key personnel set to return.



I'm with you GE.
We haven't been so bad given all the injuries.

In fact we could've pinched the Pies, Tigers and Saints games with a bit of luck/more attention on kicking for goal.
Its easy to be down on Carlton's WLWLWL recent record, but I see their will to compete as a weapon.
Add Weiters, Pitto, Gov and find a bit of form....we should improve.

I think the Final 8 as it is now will remain.

I also think we are still a serious candidate for 4th spot too.
Freo faces StK, Syd Rich Melb & Dogs in the next 5 weeks, and GWS at Manuka in the last round, and we are above Pies and just have to win as many as them in the run home.

Like Tommi said, form is a fickle thing and Pies have Moore out for the next month before they finish season off with Melb Syd Carlton.

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Last edited by bondiblue on Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:00 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17517
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:21 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 2:10 pm
Posts: 2455
If it’s 13 then we ‘just’ need to beat the sides we should, WCE, Adelaide and GWS.

Should we then win one of Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne or Collingwood then we’ll definitely make it.

Miss out and we have nobody to blame


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:36 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
Looking back over our season, the games we have played and the results and scores, the St K game does stand out a bit due to poor conversion, but all that tells us is we should win this weekend.

If we don't then there are issues IMO.

Obviously not rocket science on the surface, but point is if we are all correct and the St K was an abberation of sorts due to poor kicking then surely we win this weekend?

BTW clealry I vcannot spoell abberation


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:40 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
DesEnglish wrote:
If it’s 13 then we ‘just’ need to beat the sides we should, WCE, Adelaide and GWS.

Should we then win one of Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne or Collingwood then we’ll definitely make it.

Miss out and we have nobody to blame


Yeah that is how I see it


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:45 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
Blue Vain wrote:
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .


Obviously everyone will rate games differently but FWIW IMO if we end up with 13 wins I have us missing by %. I have Swans narrowly edging us out on %.

In any event I think we all agree if we win the 3 games we ought to win (which let it be said are no certs!) and pinch a win against the better sides we will likely make it.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:56 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17517
Paddycripps wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .


Obviously everyone will rate games differently but FWIW IMO if we end up with 13 wins I have us missing by %. I have Swans narrowly edging us out on %.

In any event I think we all agree if we win the 3 games we ought to win (which let it be said are no certs!) and pinch a win against the better sides we will likely make it.


I actually think we'll beat Geelong and the Pies, and will give Melbourne a good shake .
I suspect WC will be a bigger challenge. They have a good record against us and I suspect Adam Simpson will present their best team available to date before putting the cue in the rack for 2022.
If we win in, it shows we have matured into the team we'd hoped.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:00 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Joined: Sat May 12, 2007 12:15 am
Posts: 3156
Location: The Wild West
13 wins will definitely get us in the 8. In the history of the Final 8 system, no team has ever missed the finals with 13 wins:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/136353/unlucky-13-finals-race-could-make-history

Geelong came the closest in 2018, finishing 8th on 13 wins, with 4 teams on 12 wins sitting just outside the 8:

https://www.google.com/search?q=2018+afl+ladder&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU978AU978&oq=2018+afl+ladder&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433i512j0i512j0i22i30l3j0i390.3926j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=lg;/g/11gbwxtc_1;10;/m/0ckh09;st;fp;1;;

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:03 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
The elephant in the room is WC and Adel are no Norf, right?!

I saw some of the WC and Adel games games this weekend, WC did OK but I thought Richmond took it easy on them TBH and WDC have a few players still who look like they could stuff up at any minute, but Adel looked a lot better and TBH they look a lot sharper than they did earlier in the year.

Adel at home is not easy game, and even WC at home won't be a walk in the park as I believe Kennedy will be back and maybe 1 or 2 other important players.

I mean we all agree right if we cannot beat these two teams then we are overrated and don't deserve to make the 8.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:04 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Joined: Sat May 12, 2007 12:15 am
Posts: 3156
Location: The Wild West
Blue Vain wrote:
Paddycripps wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .


Obviously everyone will rate games differently but FWIW IMO if we end up with 13 wins I have us missing by %. I have Swans narrowly edging us out on %.

In any event I think we all agree if we win the 3 games we ought to win (which let it be said are no certs!) and pinch a win against the better sides we will likely make it.


I actually think we'll beat Geelong and the Pies, and will give Melbourne a good shake .
I suspect WC will be a bigger challenge. They have a good record against us and I suspect Adam Simpson will present their best team available to date before putting the cue in the rack for 2022.
If we win in, it shows we have matured into the team we'd hoped.


I agree with all of the above, except for West Coast. Whilst they will far from easy beats, they will still be missing McGovern, Sheed and now Yeo from their best team.

If we play anywhere close to our best, we should account for them quite easily. Play like Friday night though and we can lose it...

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:04 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
Blue Vain wrote:
Paddycripps wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .


Obviously everyone will rate games differently but FWIW IMO if we end up with 13 wins I have us missing by %. I have Swans narrowly edging us out on %.

In any event I think we all agree if we win the 3 games we ought to win (which let it be said are no certs!) and pinch a win against the better sides we will likely make it.


I actually think we'll beat Geelong and the Pies, and will give Melbourne a good shake .
I suspect WC will be a bigger challenge. They have a good record against us and I suspect Adam Simpson will present their best team available to date before putting the cue in the rack for 2022.
If we win in, it shows we have matured into the team we'd hoped.


I suspect the Pies game will be massive. Wouldn't it be ironic if we have to beat them to make the 8 and then we play them again the following week?


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:09 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 22924
Location: Bondi Beach
Blue Vain wrote:
Paddycripps wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .


Obviously everyone will rate games differently but FWIW IMO if we end up with 13 wins I have us missing by %. I have Swans narrowly edging us out on %.

In any event I think we all agree if we win the 3 games we ought to win (which let it be said are no certs!) and pinch a win against the better sides we will likely make it.


I actually think we'll beat Geelong and the Pies, and will give Melbourne a good shake .
I suspect WC will be a bigger challenge. They have a good record against us and I suspect Adam Simpson will present their best team available to date before putting the cue in the rack for 2022.
If we win in, it shows we have matured into the team we'd hoped.


I think we will beat Cats and Pies too.

I would have preferred to play Cats at Kardinia Park to give us a better chance :wink:

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:09 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 22924
Location: Bondi Beach
Paddycripps wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
Paddycripps wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
After the weekends results, I'm leaning more toward 13 wins being enough, regardless of %.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sydney and Saints miss out with 12 wins each. Dogs in .


Obviously everyone will rate games differently but FWIW IMO if we end up with 13 wins I have us missing by %. I have Swans narrowly edging us out on %.

In any event I think we all agree if we win the 3 games we ought to win (which let it be said are no certs!) and pinch a win against the better sides we will likely make it.


I actually think we'll beat Geelong and the Pies, and will give Melbourne a good shake .
I suspect WC will be a bigger challenge. They have a good record against us and I suspect Adam Simpson will present their best team available to date before putting the cue in the rack for 2022.
If we win in, it shows we have matured into the team we'd hoped.


I suspect the Pies game will be massive. Wouldn't it be ironic if we have to beat them to make the 8 and then we play them again the following week?



What a Bonanza for the AFL and for the clubs given we split the gate with the Pies.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:31 pm 
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Wayne Johnston

Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 12:18 pm
Posts: 8166
Location: Australia
If we don’t get enough wins to make the finals then we don’t deserve to be playing finals.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:42 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Joined: Sat May 12, 2007 12:15 am
Posts: 3156
Location: The Wild West
sinbagger wrote:
If we don’t get enough wins to make the finals then we don’t deserve to be playing finals.


Funny that....

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:46 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17517
sinbagger wrote:
If we don’t get enough wins to make the finals then we don’t deserve to be playing finals.


Makes sense to me....

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:50 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 5:28 pm
Posts: 4502
If we beat West Coast and Freo defeats St Kilda this weekend then we should play finals.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 3:09 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
Mil Hanna wrote:
13 wins will definitely get us in the 8. In the history of the Final 8 system, no team has ever missed the finals with 13 wins:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/136353/unlucky-13-finals-race-could-make-history

Geelong came the closest in 2018, finishing 8th on 13 wins, with 4 teams on 12 wins sitting just outside the 8:

https://www.google.com/search?q=2018+afl+ladder&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU978AU978&oq=2018+afl+ladder&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433i512j0i512j0i22i30l3j0i390.3926j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=lg;/g/11gbwxtc_1;10;/m/0ckh09;st;fp;1;;


Not saying you are wrong but surely you agree this is a fairly unique year?


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 3:10 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
Mil Hanna wrote:
sinbagger wrote:
If we don’t get enough wins to make the finals then we don’t deserve to be playing finals.


Funny that....


:hitcomputer: :grin:


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 3:11 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
Posts: 4435
Humpers wrote:
If we beat West Coast and Freo defeats St Kilda this weekend then we should play finals.


What about the Dogs?


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