https://u.pcloud.link/publink/show?code=XZiQ3UVZFngctxjvLtpjlDtysgOhIVfb5LjV

Also been doing some math. long before our run of 6 and 7 goal games I was concerned about how difficult our goal kicks were (Harry in pocket boundary, Charlie outside 50 and so dependent on those two), and how we relied on too few.

finally got around to start analysing goal kicking data from AFL site for this season. took the top 120 goal kickers thus far (prior to last weekend probably) ranked 1 to equal 113th.

listed clubs by ranking of number of players in the top 120 goal kickers thus far this season, and goals kicked by players in the top 120 goal kickers.

Pies have the most kickers with 10, no surprises there, McCae's game plan is built around strong defence and counter punch goals with surges forward from D50 intercepts or midfield overturns entries on account of them lacking many key tall forwards (Mihochek #6, Bobby Hill #38, Ash Johnston #28) . Blues half that with 5.

Lions have 149 goals kicked by their top kickers (7 of the top 120 in AFL) while Blues have 97 goals kicked by our top kickers (5 of the top 120 AFL goal kickers). daylight to cats and pies for 2nd and 3rd ranking teams.

In both criteria Blues rank 14th, a very close to a predictor of where we are on the ladder presently. I expect the final 8 to look more like the list on the right, than the list on the left or the current ladder.

But we will.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

How's our percentage?

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14 less than Sydney's, haha

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#DonTheStash

Need to beat WC by 300.

Funny you say that, because I thought the games against Hawks and Eagles would be the games we may need to boost our percentage incase there was a draw between Swans and Cats, and others, such is the evenness between the teams vying for the 8. I knew we had Tigers percentage covered after their 80 point loss.

Swans made up 115% from its 171 point win against the Weagles.

We need a 110 point win vs Eagles and a 10 goal win against the Hawks to make up ground on percentage quickly.

Best way forward is just to keep banking the 4 points week in week out. Can we please do that.

My other gut feel is that the 3 KPF's who got us in this mess, missing easy shots at goal, will be the ones to get us out of the mess.

One win at each weekend and we wont rely on percentage, and we can make up percentage in increments.
Hawks 30
Freo 10
Port 5
Eagles 70
Pies 5
Stk 20
Dees 15
Suns 15
Giants 20


Lets start this week...hang on, we started the roll and our march to finals last game vs Suns.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

I think we all need to save ourselves the stress of delusion and accept we aren't making finals. No way it happens.

Just win. It takes all the calculations out of it.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

We need other teams to lose

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They'll be playing each other. It will happen anyway.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

Rich Free GC Ess all lose, & GWS most likely also

It really is in our hands to capitalise tomorrow.

But we've all seen this script before....

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#DonTheStash

They will

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

I think Geelong getting half the points against Sydney has [REDACTED] us. Anything else from here is a race to 10th.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

Nah, not really.
I thought the same.
Percentage will matter. Hawks and eagles are there for the taking.
If we kick straight, we win, plus the % takes care of itself.

Its one week at a time.
Seen it before. Bradbury rings a bell

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Really? I wanted Geelong to win

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#DonTheStash

1½ out

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I did a ladder predictor and we can definitely make it with 12.5 wins

If we beat Freo, WC, saints, GC, and GWS plus one of Port, Collingwood, or Melbourne - we would probably scrape in to 7th or 8th

Not impossible, but knowing us we’ll prob come out and get belted by Freo next week and I will have wasted 10 minutes of my life


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Definetely with 12.5.
Possibly with 11.5.

But we haven't been beaten for 3 weeks, and winning tastes great: ask the players.
They've been nourished, and know what they can do even without a CHB and Ruck, coz that's what they are doing.

Kemp and Boyd have been great. Kemp has been my big surprise.
Martin and Cuningham make a huge difference.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

We haven't been beaten for almost an entire month. 2 days short of a month in fact.