Cool, I was waiting for the Arc

https://thearcfooty.com/2018-afl-projections/

The Arc have released their projected ladder for 2018 and they have the Blues finishing in 14th place.

We have a 17.2% chance of finishing in the top 8.

I would like to see us do a bit better and tackle the 4 teams projected just above us who are:

13. Bulldogs
12. Pies
11. Dees
10. Eagles

The other interesting thing is it shows the teams we must beat,

15. Kangas
16. Dockers
17. Suns
18. Lions

....starting this weekend.

CB

I Noah how you feel.

Hi,
Glad you like my site! Cheers for reading.

In response to bondiblue who was wondering where my model gets about 9 wins for Carlton from:

My predictions are probabilistic. By that I mean that for each game, I estimate Carlton's chance of winning - it can be somewhere between 0% and 100%. The projected wins are then a sum of all these probabilities. For example, say I gave the Blues a 70% chance of beating the Dockers (hypothetically) and a 20% chance of beating the Crows. The expected wins from these 2 games is therefore 0.7 + 0.2 = 0.9.

This sort of probabilistic calculation gives you more accurate forecasts than if you just look for the likely wins (eg. Kangaroos, Dockers, Suns, Lions) and give them a probability of '1' and all the others a probability of '0'. The Blues, like any team, will win some games you expect them to lose and vice versa.

For what it's worth, this is my current estimate of the Blues' chance of winning each game. Add up all the probabilities and you should get 8.7. These estimated probabilities will change after each game, because my team ratings 'learn' from real world results.

R1 - RI - 0
R2 - GC - 0.69
R3 - CW - 0.4
R4 - KA - 0.46
R5 - WC - 0.51
R6 - WB - 0.4
R7 - AD - 0.17
R8 - ES - 0.39
R9 - ME - 0.39
R10 - GE - 0.24
R11 - SY - 0.18
R12 - bye
R13 - FR - 0.66
R14 - CW - 0.42
R15 - PA - 0.44
R16 - BL - 0.45
R17 - SK - 0.4
R18 - HW - 0.5
R19 - GC - 0.42
R20 - GW - 0.43
R21 - FR - 0.43
R22 - WB - 0.43
R23 - AD - 0.43

Stats and probability are interesting, I will follow your updates.

Interesting to see we only have a 45% chance of beating the Lions when they are expected to come last on your predictions and a 50% chance of beating Hawthorne, who you have in the eight.

I would like to hear the method you use to come up with these numbers

Cheers
GMC

Thanks for contributing Bruce, fantastic to hear directly how statistical analysis plays out in modern sport and specifically how it applies to the Blues.

One thing about your approach that interests me, and I have read an article you have written on the topic, is that you do your analysis on the teams lists and not the team that is selected from week to week.

I understand that over the longer run there isn't a great deal of difference in the statistical results, although I suspect if you were using the data for gaming purposes there may be some shorter term variance.

Therefore, if you can reasonably accurately determine a teams likely outcome at the start of the season it shows that the rate of improvement of a list over one season usually can't be material and confirms that a rebuilding process takes time.

Thanks again for producing the Arc Footy.

CB

Oh no. Are we about to get flooded by Ark puns now?

You arked for it.

Oh no. Are we about to get flooded by Ark puns now?