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| Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=35247 |
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| Author: | The Hitman [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Hi Bluebaggers, last year I posted Carlton's season preview from the Me? I Like Football site and, like most, it turned out to be a bit optimistic! You can check it out here. In that spirit, I thought I'd come back and post the 2016 season preview for the Blues. Genuinely interested in finding out your realistic aims, what has you excited and your feedback on the preview. I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to show that I'm not spamming for clicks; hopefully that's okay for the mods. I'm the author and I'm here to engage! And if you want to see the preview on the Me? I Like Football site, or the upcoming previews of the 17 other clubs, you can by clicking here. 2016 season preview: Carlton By Brett Collett Last season Great things weren’t necessarily expected of Carlton last season, but a campaign that finished with just four wins, a sacked coach and the club’s fourth wooden spoon was a shock to the club. Coach Mick Malthouse was under pressure from the off after the Blues dropped their opening three games with little resistance. A win over St Kilda in round four set up a blockbuster clash against old rival Collingwood, though rivalry took a backseat to the attention paid to Malthouse for breaking Jock McHale’s long-standing record for most games coached. But the 75-point loss to his old side left many wondering whether Malthouse would be given the opportunity to add many more games to his now record tally, and after back-to-back drubbings at the hands of Greater Western Sydney and Geelong, he was sacked after just eight rounds (and 718 games). John Barker took the reigns, and immediately the Blues appeared less hapless. After going into the bye 1-9 and having Chris Judd retire after he ruptured his ACL against Adelaide, Carlton knocked off Port Adelaide and Gold Coast in consecutive weeks. That illusion of respectability was swiftly dispelled by a seven-game losing streak, including the club’s worst ever loss – a 138-point capitulation to Hawthorn in round 17. As you’d expect from a team that won only four games, there were issues all over the ground. A complete lack of defensive pressure around the ground saw Carlton concede more than 100 points 14 times. Goals were hard to come by, with the Blues’ pop-gun forward line comprising Lachie Henderson (when he’s not being shelved for demanding a trade), Levi Casboult, an oft-injured Andrew Walker and Andrejs Everitt the worst in the league – they averaged a mere 10 goals a game. There were a few one shining spots that emerged out for the Blues last season, like the emergence of running defender Zach Tuohy and the safe return from injury late in the season for Andrew Walker and Matthew Kreuzer. The bright light on the hill, however, can be summed up in two words: Patrick Cripps. The second-year midfielder averaged nearly 24 touches a game, won the club’s best and fairest award and nearly took out the Rising Star award. Comings and goings The wooden spooners didn’t just press the reset button, but took a sledgehammer to it. As former coach David Parkin said: “It’s a rebuild, not a renovation.” The retirements of Chris Judd and Andrew Carrazzo, plus the departure of Tom Bell, leaves a few holes in the midfield rotation – particularly after 2015 served as a watershed year for Bell, who went home to be closer to his ill father. While the shipping out of the talented – if not flighty – duo of Chris Yarran and Troy Menzel will be an immediate net-negative , it was the loss of Lachie Henderson to Geelong that will sting Carlton the hardest. The Blues may have landed a future first round pick for the key forward, but he would have been both young enough to have seen the other side of this rebuild and experienced enough to have been a leading figure for the club throughout it. Four picks inside the top 25 yielded a group who will serve as the foundation of the rebuild. Number one pick Jacob Weitering will play as a key defender from the word go, while fellow first rounders Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow and David Cuningham will have opportunities to impress too. The Blues snapped up a third generation of Silvagni, with Steven’s son and Serge’s grandson Jack taken under the father-son rule with pick 53. No pressure, kid. So many footballers from Greater Western Sydney arrived at the club over the summer that North Carlton should be renamed “Little Parramatta”. Four former Giants made their way to Princes Park during the trade period, with Jed Lamb, Lachie Plowman, Andrew Phillips and Liam Sumner adding to the two ex-Giants Carlton collected the previous off-season. Midfield aspirant Sam Kerridge was secured in the Troy Menzel deal with Adelaide, while another former Crow in Matthew Wright boosts the Blues’ depth in the middle. He came to the club via free agency after finishing last season in the SANFL. But with all these comings and goings, perhaps the most important acquisition is new coach Brendon Bolton, who comes to Princes Park after five years in the box with Alastair Clarkson at Hawthorn. It’s a new approach for Carlton, who after Parkin’s retirement have either promoted from within (Wayne Brittain and Brett Ratten) or opted for expensive but past-it coaching legends (Denis Pagan and Mick Malthouse). Bringing in a total outsider who has a mandate for change and doesn’t have a fixed ideology on how the game should be played is just what Carlton needs. If Bolton’s undefeated record when he took senior coaching over from an ill Clarkson in 2014 is any indication, the Blues are on a winner. Strengths It can be difficult to recognise areas that aren’t in need of complete overhaul when a club like Carlton reboots after such a dismal season. Taken as a whole, the Blues have been a hot mess both on and off the field, but they have a mix of top-end (if not unfulfilled) talent drafted from years past mixed with three picks from the first 12 at last year’s draft. When Carlton wins in 2016, it will almost certainly be because of their reasonably solid midfield. Without Chris Judd for most of last season, the Blues were third in centre clearances, with Patrick Cripps emerging as a contested ball winning monster. Skipper Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson, Ed Curnow, Sam Kerridge, Nick Graham and Sam Docherty team up with Cripps to form a fairly solid midfield group that will keep Carlton in games if their defence – and ruckman Matthew Kreuzer – holds up. By virtue of finishing last, the Blues have the softest of fixtures. The only top eight side they play twice is Sydney, and they get two cracks at Brisbane, Essendon* and St Kilda. Carlton has an opportunity to finish off strong with St Kilda, Brisbane away, Melbourne and Essendon* their opponents in the final month – all winnable games on paper. Weaknesses The easiest knock on Carlton is their forward line, and we’ll get to that, but the most telling deficiency is the lack of strong leadership. Marc Murphy has retained captaincy despite question marks over both his form and leadership credentials, and already there is talk about 2013 draftee Patrick Cripps being next in line. Without Chris Judd, where’s the support for Murphy coming from, particularly for a team in flux? Bryce Gibbs, Andrew Walker and Matthew Kreuzer don’t appear to be born leaders, and vice captain Kade Simpson is entering his final years. Two worrisome facts punctuate how barren Carlton’s forward line is: Andrejs Everitt was the leading goal kicker last season with 31 majors, and captain Murphy has more AFL goals than any other Blue on the current list. A mass exodus over the past three seasons has left the forward line threadbare; Lachie Henderson, Troy Menzel, Jeff Garlett and Eddie Betts have all departed the club in the last three years. So where will the goals come from? Walker bagged 11 goals in Carlton’s last four games, but he’s approaching 30 and has not been able to regularly get on the park. Liam Jones has been a bust, though he’s contracted until the end of 2017. Everitt came to the fore last season, but the Carlton hierarchy wouldn’t want him to be top of the pops again. That leaves Levi Casboult. A lot of faith has been shown is Casboult’s development, yet the boy from Beaconsfield has yet to crack the 25-goal mark in a season despite debuting in 2012. He’s in the same boat as the aforementioned Jones – good hands can only get you so far as a forward. What to expect in 2016 Not much. Expectations are as low as they can be for one of the competition’s prestige teams. Carlton will try and play a more modern, risky brand of football under Brendon Bolton, who is using his teaching background and coaching experience at Hawthorn to instill a game that relies more on skill and good decision-making than the old Mick Malthouse plan. It won’t catch on immediately, but the next few seasons will be used to see who can handle the more demanding style. There’s not much depth at all in this squad, so there will be plenty of opportunities to see the kids play. Expect Jacob Weitering to start in round one, while it’d be surprising if Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow don’t get a taste of senior action up forward. Expect lots of mistakes, some heartening wins and a few more genuinely honourable losses against decent opposition than they managed in 2015. Best 22 B: Simon White – Michael Jamison – Jacob Weitering HB: Zach Tuohy – Lachie Plowman – Sam Docherty C: Kade Simpson – Ed Curnow – Bryce Gibbs HF: Sam Kerridge – Levi Casboult – Dale Thomas F: Andrejs Everitt – Andrew Walker – Matthew Wright FOLL: Matthew Kreuzer – Patrick Cripps – Marc Murphy INT: Dylan Buckley – Nick Graham – Blaine Boekhorst – Daniel Gorringe The verdict The Blues are a real contender for another wooden spoon, and are one of the few clubs who harbor no finals aspirations for the upcoming season. It feels like the Blues suffered a short and sudden bottoming out, and it’s all about incremental improvement from now on. If their senior players can stay on the park there’s no reason they couldn’t cobble together five or more wins. But if injuries hit the wrong players, this could get even uglier than last season, which would probably be bearable for most Bluebaggers – after the trauma of last season, this isn’t about 2016. We have Carlton finishing 17th. |
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| Author: | Stone Free [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
They had the Doggies finishing 17th last year, so you know, kinda difficult to take this seriously. |
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| Author: | cimm1979 [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 9:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Could probably quibble over a few of the best 22 or how many wins but it's seems about right. I think he's hit the nail on the head with the bit about trying to play modern footy. I don't think we have enough quality ball users/decision makers to hang on the ball long enough or get it into the forward line (in the right way) often enough. |
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| Author: | emtwenty [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 9:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
I predict us to win every game but lose to Essendon* twice before going on to win the flag. |
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| Author: | The Hitman [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Stone Free wrote: They had the Doggies finishing 17th last year, so you know, kinda difficult to take this seriously. Probably more about the analysis and less about the prediction, to be honest. Our predictions are an amalgam of the five preview writers' predictions so the writer assigned to the preview has a ladder position to write to. Out of interest, where did you have the Dogs last year after they sacked their coach and traded their captain? |
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| Author: | Taff [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Pretty reasonable summation. Injuries (or lack of) to key players are going to be a huge factor. Our lack of experiences quality up forward will be our headache all year. Still plenty to look forward to, especially how BB handles the coaching. |
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| Author: | tasboy [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Cripps a noteable omission from last years best 22... not sure i have too much faith in this sites predictions! |
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| Author: | HTP [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Worth a read just to find this nugget from the author: http://meilikefootball.com/2015/04/20/e ... ball-team/ Not saying it's wrong, mind you ... |
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| Author: | dane [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
HTP wrote: Worth a read just to find this nugget from the author: http://meilikefootball.com/2015/04/20/e ... ball-team/ Not saying it's wrong, mind you ... End thread. |
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| Author: | The Hitman [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Hah, yeah. I think I wrote that in anger as a Hawthorn supporter as an antidote to the "courage" angle being thrown around by commentators at the time. Not my finest moment. Or Hawthorn's, mind. |
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| Author: | billc3 [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Sorry Hitman , but were you implying that like Casboult, Jones also has good hands? Caz I get...has hands, improved kicking but needs more. Jones, I'm lost.. Spot on that he's a Bust, but, I can't see anything he 'has'. |
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| Author: | tap in 79 [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
emtwenty wrote: I predict us to win every game but lose to Essendon** twice before going on to win the flag. I like this prediction. Can you make it come true. Do some magic. I predict North Melbourne to be given millions of dollars from the AFL out of the future fund, I predict the same for Brisbane. I predict Carlton to get nothing. That is my brave prediction. |
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| Author: | Arnhem blues [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
I appreciate the thought and effort hitman. Seems about right to me. Intrigued to see how Wright works out. If he can play forward that can only help! |
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| Author: | TruBlueBrad [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
Reckon a link to the site rather than posting the entire article would be more appropriate. |
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| Author: | moshe25 [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 9:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
TruBlueBrad wrote: Reckon a link to the site rather than posting the entire article would be more appropriate. Nah. Rather read the article here. |
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| Author: | tommi [ Mon Mar 07, 2016 9:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Carlton 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football |
£#@%....... a little bit too much £#@%ing perspective for mine...! kindest regards tommi |
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