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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:05 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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How did we lose with 30 scoring shots?


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:07 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Was probably 9.21 or something similar

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:10 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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verbs wrote:

The dotted line is a polynomial trend line.


Well, why didn't you say so? :oops:












I still have no idea what that means

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:11 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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a moving average trend line or an exponential trend line would probably represent better

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:13 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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Polynomial is my favourite. Excel's algorithm does the work and that's what it came up with. I'm not going to argue with Microsoft. :lol:


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:14 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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grrofunger wrote:
Was probably 9.21 or something similar


13.17, Brisbane kicked 15.9


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:16 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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The Polynomial is good in your graph to show the poor dip we had not too long ago and then the significant gains we have had recently but the other two types would probably show a better(more accurate) trend over the full lifetime of games in your data set.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:27 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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my polynomials are aching reading all this. i just want milk that tastes like milk, please.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:36 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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If it starts looking like a hockey stick, I will ask questions... :wink:

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:43 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Nup....

that whole graph FREAKED ME OUT
maaan...!

by the time i worked it out i was down
a horrible hole...no coming back...!


kindest regards tommi

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:57 pm 
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John Nicholls
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Better than being up a horrible hole :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:20 pm 
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Robert Walls

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I'm assuming your regression line has some limitations verbs
Otherwise, we'll be tracking for 60 scoring shots by 2021...unstoppable!!!!!!!

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:45 am 
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Stephen Kernahan
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GMCbris wrote:
verbs wrote:
BigKev wrote:
verbs wrote:
Looks like we're trending in the right direction up forward:

Image


I'm lost. How is that dotted brown line derived? I'm assuming that the vertical column is number of scoring shots. To my eyes it looks like we were going better around the 20-25 mark on the horizontal scale, but the brown line says things are better now even though the "towers" look lower to me.


The dotted line is a polynomial trend line.
What ever it is - Im pretty sure its not right!

a moving average would move very harshly at the beginning and wouldnt move in such a linear way near the end.

But it is pretty :)

A moving average always has the average line level with the top of the first stat, as in week one 20, average 20.
That graph doesn't even do that. Wrong from week one. I think it might have been done by the Labor Treasurer in waiting.
Either that or I hope the author of it told off his three year old for drawing on it.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:26 am 
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Bruce Doull
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grrofunger wrote:
I still cant remember winning 4 in a row.



That's because we didn't release a Streak DVD

Funnily enough I'm pretty sure that run ended against st Kilda at etihad

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:36 am 
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Stephen Silvagni
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Blue Sombrero wrote:
GMCbris wrote:
verbs wrote:
BigKev wrote:
verbs wrote:
Looks like we're trending in the right direction up forward:

Image


I'm lost. How is that dotted brown line derived? I'm assuming that the vertical column is number of scoring shots. To my eyes it looks like we were going better around the 20-25 mark on the horizontal scale, but the brown line says things are better now even though the "towers" look lower to me.


The dotted line is a polynomial trend line.
What ever it is - Im pretty sure its not right!

a moving average would move very harshly at the beginning and wouldnt move in such a linear way near the end.

But it is pretty :)

A moving average always has the average line level with the top of the first stat, as in week one 20, average 20.
That graph doesn't even do that. Wrong from week one. I think it might have been done by the Labor Treasurer in waiting.
Either that or I hope the author of it told off his three year old for drawing on it.


You guys don’t seem to understand the difference between a moving average and a polynomial trend line. They are vastly different. Moving averages are okay but very basic. With a list turnover such as ours a more complex algorithm is needed.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:54 am 
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Geoff Southby
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Well, hasn’t this got intense. I just thought it was a bar graph with a dotted line that looks like a wave building.........surfs up dude! :lol: :thumbsup:


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:11 am 
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Stephen Silvagni
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For all the moving average fan bois, a five game moving average shows the same trend, ie UP UP UP:

Image

Still think a polynomial looks better. :grin:


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:36 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Hard not to think Bolts will be nervous agsinst his old mentor. I wonder if Hawks might employ the 'dirtyfooty' tactics against our tall team like Port did against Eagles. This is gonna be a real challenge for us but no reason we can't actually win it.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:45 am 
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Craig Bradley

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grrofunger wrote:
I still cant remember winning 4 in a row.


Bolton's first year. We lost the first 4 then won 6 of the next 7 including 4 in a row.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:52 am 
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Bruce Doull
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jim wrote:
grrofunger wrote:
I still cant remember winning 4 in a row.


Bolton's first year. We lost the first 4 then won 6 of the next 7 including 4 in a row.


So exactly like this year.

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