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The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
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Author:  17th Premiership [ Tue May 21, 2013 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Just read article in The Age where Sheedy says he'd happily give up all GWS draft picks for NicNat - including No.1, activated 1st round + 1st pick in subsequent rounds.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/trading-draft-for-naitanui-makes-sense-to-sheedy-20130520-2jx04.html
The article draws reference to our Judd trade, giving up picks 3 + 20 + JK et al.
If we manage to win a Premiership with Judd, I think it's clear that the trade was a good one.
But what if Judd retires and we have not won a Premiership - will the trade, in retrospect, be considered a win?

My overall conclusion is YES, but it could be close.
The clincher for me is who we would have picked up in the draft, had we not traded for Judd, plus JK.

What we would have had:
1) JK would have been perfect for us by now and would have reduced reliance on Waite. Would have been interesting to see JK, Waite and Fev play together.
2) Pick 3 - although Dangerfield, Cyril, Harry Taylor, Jack Grimes and McEvoy were all available, I believe we would still have picked up Chris Masten, as did WCE with that pick. (Kruezer was No.1, Cotchin at No.2). Masten would have been ok for us at best.
3) Pick 20 - WCE picked up Tony Notte. We may have preferred Scott Selwood (22) or Tayte Pears (23).
4) It is arguable that without Judd, we would have finished a rung or two lower and received a higher pick in the 2008 draft. We would have gone for either Hamish Hartlett or Michael Hurley instead of Yarran.

What we would not have had:
1) Judd. Several B&Fs, Brownlow, Mktg, Memberships and hope.
2) Leadership. Related to point above, I reckon there are very few players at the time who could have influenced the team away from slack attitude, esp given the off-field wayward influence of Fev and some others at the time.
3) Armfield. I reckon this is close to break even with losing Masten. And I don't think our player development would have brought any more out of Masten than we've seen from WCE. We could even have discarded him by now.
4) Yarran. As per pt 4 above, I suspect we would have picked up Hartlett or more likely Hurley. Objectively, given our structural problems, Hurley would have given us more. However, I do love Yarran... ;-)

At the end of the day, I think that if we win a Premiership in the next 5yrs, a significant amount of credit would go to the Judd trade.
And I don't think we'd be performing any better than we are now had we not brought Judd over.
If we don't win a Premiership with Judd that will be disappointing but no fault of the Judd trade.

So, who should we trade for and what would we be willing to give up?
- We won't have a top 10 pick to bargain with
- We should have money for free agent

I would worry that picking up someone like Buddy would cost too much - resulting in the loss of other required players.
Wouldn't mind trading for someone like Sam Reid, another crack at Port's Trengove. I wonder about Gumbleton - is he now over his injury problems or would we be buying another Waite?
Do we target GC or GWS players?

Thoughts?
Author:  Big Kahuna Boot [ Tue May 21, 2013 9:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
..the judd trade was as fair a deal, and a win/win, as could be done.. ....losing kennedy hurt, the loss somewhat mitigated by hendo falling in our lap not too long after.. ..kennedy is a very good CHF, but still can suffer from injury concerns.. .... ..masten is becoming a bit better now, years after, and is a mini bust for a top 3 pick.. ..notte was a total waste.. ..judd and army have been enormous for us, both on field and off field..

..i think the trade in our favour is already a success, flag or no flag.. ..and for wce, losing your star player, they got as good as they could have hoped for in the circumstances.. ..kennedy, picks 3 and 20.. ..who they picked up in the draft is a somewhat separate issue, and could have done better by themselves..

..who to trade/buy as free agents..??.. ..obvious weakness is in the KPP stocks, obvious asset is in our Ruck stocks.. ..although knockers and hammer [this year excepting] tend to only crank out half a years worth of senior action, being injury prone.. ..with Jamo likewise being injury prone, another quality KPD could be good, it may also allow for Hendo to move fwd.. ..or a KPF, to keep Hendo down back.. ..thinking though that KPF usually come at a higher price.. ..and a KPD such as Frawley we may be able to shake loose due to unhappiness..

..is watts a lost cause..?.. .... ..thinking he's getting cheaper every week..
Author:  Hammertime22 [ Tue May 21, 2013 9:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
I agree Buddy would cost a lot ... But the money / members / sponsors / excitement / structure he would bring would be worth it in my opinion.

Can you imagine when we get our gameplan sorted ... all players back then bang it long to Garlett, Betts, Yarran, Army .... And Franklin running into an open 50.

Judd cash has been reduced - I don't really see any super elite players on our list that could demand huge amounts of money.

I think the club would do anything to get Buddy but I don't think he will leave.


Id be most keen to get a 20-22 year old from the Suns or Giants:
Tom Lynch?

The clear trade bait we have would be Hammer ... Or ... Krueze

I wonder if Hammer & Lucas for one key player would get any clubs thinking
Author:  17th Premiership [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
I like the idea of Lynch. Or Sam Day, if he'd leave.
Also think Watts is definitely worth a go - would probably make an awesome CHB and allow Hendo forward.
What could we get from GWS for, say, Hammer? I think Warnock has gone past him... although, if he could just hold those marks and kick straight...
Fwiw, I think Hendo is doing the best CHF apprenticeship possible by playing at CHB and I'm in no hurry to push him forward right now. Maybe later in the season. Ideally, next season.
Author:  woof [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Pick 3 and Kennedy should have been enough. In effect we got Armfield for pick 20 so he has turned out to be ok.
I will never regret picking up Chris Judd.
Author:  Donstuie [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
I look at Jack Watts and think that's what would have become of JK had he stayed here without a leader like Juddy around.
Author:  fmurphy30 [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
This subject has been done to death but a couple of points to make. We are on record as saying that Palmer would have been our no 3 in 2007 which would not have been great (and rumour at the time had it that he wanted a WA club only). Yarran was rated no 2 by us in 2008 after Nic Nat. Draft would not have fallen the way you think.

Second thing often overlooked was that Judd brought professionalism to the club. Prior to him our leaders were Whitnall (fitness and family issues), Stevens (fat and selfish for all his ability) and Fev. Judd has set the bar for the club to pursue success even if it occurs after he is gone. He was worth it.

The Weagles did fine as well. Masten is at least solid and JK has blossomed (many on here thought he was a dud). Notte was a bust. Army has been our unexpected bonus.
Author:  Heavs [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Good op. In b4 shitfight starts and thread derailed.
Author:  Synbad [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Donstuie wrote:
I look at Jack Watts and think that's what would have become of JK had he stayed here without a leader like Juddy around.

what of all the others that were around when a leader like judd WAS around???
Author:  Synbad [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
i would never ... EVER chase buddy !!!!
Author:  BigKev [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Let it go man.
Author:  Synbad [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
BigKev wrote:
Let it go man.

Let what go???

Its ludicrous to believe things that are not true...

Judd wont bring professionalism and didnt....!!!

Its a culture across the whole club not one person.

One person wont bring you a flag!!.. its got to come from the whole operation.

Shining knights only exist in fairyatles and figment of Carltons imagination!!!

Wanna argue that point with me?Fine!!!

Lets go!!!
Author:  mots [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Neither would I Synners.
Author:  johntall [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Can someone explain to me why the 'Priority Pick' in 2006 (year before Judd) was moved from Pick #1 to Pick #17 (Hampson)?
It was restored to Pick #1 in 2007 (Kreuzer).
Author:  ThePsychologist [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Never ever criticise the Judd deal and I am glad we got him but giving away Kennedy always disappointed me. Just had a feeling we could of been tougher on the deal. All in all it was a win/win for both clubs.

No doubt there will be some major changes at years end. We have some talent and some real holes in our list. It's time for the "old" Carlton to return and get the BEST players we can get.

My guess is we will have around 10 changes from:

Possible Trades?

Hampson (GWS & GC both looking for a mature ruckman)
Watson (would we offer he and Hampson for first round or young kid?)
Laidler (simply not in MM plans and other clubs will like him)

Possible Delistings?

Scotland (retired)
Buckley
McLean
McCarthy
Mitchell
O'Keefe
Collins
Duigan
Davies
Joseph
Dale
Rowe
Ellard
Curnow

Bell upgraded.

The rest I believe are all safe.


MM will make the tough decisions on a number of players. There are a few free agents and we need to be active with trades. To inject around 7-8 talented young kids, 1-2 needs driven trades and a mature aged Ruck would be a great step forward for our list.
Author:  DocSherrin III [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
I'm a bit over the 'What if?' scenario because it's a little like saying 'if only I picked 13 9 1 12 26 22 41 and Supplementaries 34 and 39 last week, I'd have been $5million richer'.

The bigger question is perhaps one of finally facing reality. At some stage over the last few years we've all been buoyant about Carlton's chances for Premiership glory. Yet here we are in 2013, batting .500 and talking about having a mini-cleanout of the list. That's reality. This is not Michael Malthouse's list. This is Brett Ratten's list. If you don't think there won't be a little broom swept through the playing list at season's end, then you are not facing reality.

I spoke to a staunch Carlton supporter this morning who made me think about things a little differently. Here we have Jeremy Laidler, aged 23, playing in the forward line for the Northern Blues. Every single one of us penciled him in for defence duties this year, but with a lack of pace he is in no one's plans. Is he playing forward so he's worth more to clubs next year who still think of him as a defender? Does he have a future? Nick Duigan played one of the worst games ever by a Carlton footballer in Round 1. I said at the time I don't expect him to play again. Barring injury to others, I don't think he will. Why put time into someone who won't get any better vs a kid who has potential? I reckon we're seeing some decision making already.

Mitch Robinson can play hard, tough footy. He's contracted through 2014 like Shaun Hampson, but I wouldn't be putting a cent of my hard earned on either being at the club next year. Mitchell, Watson and McCarthy might get their chance at some stage. I can see one of those three at the club next year, but I'd be surprised if Luke Mitchell got a chance unless he improves upon noticeable deficiencies in the VFL.

Fascinating few months ahead.
Author:  sticksaftersiren87 [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
GWS dont like Hampson. GC have 3 ruckmen on their list, so he is not going there either.

GWS like Warnock
Author:  Donstuie [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Synbad wrote:
Donstuie wrote:
I look at Jack Watts and think that's what would have become of JK had he stayed here without a leader like Juddy around.

what of all the others that were around when a leader like judd WAS around???

I shudder to think.

In short
Us without Judd = Melbourne now

No doubt in my mind.
Author:  Stone Free [ Tue May 21, 2013 10:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
woof wrote:
Pick 3 and Kennedy should have been enough. In effect we got Armfield for pick 20 so he has turned out to be ok.
I will never regret picking up Chris Judd.


Armfield has been solid gold, diamond encrusted steak knives.
Author:  AGRO [ Tue May 21, 2013 11:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Judd trade and what should we trade end of year?
Throwing in the extra player (Kennedy) was paying way over the odds considering that the Ablett deal was 2 draft picks compo to Geelong.

If we had given West Coast Bower (who they asked for first instead of Kennedy) we would have been miles in front.
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