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The Close Ones
http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=32065		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  aramari [ Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:28 pm ]
Post subject:  The Close Ones
It was mentioned elsewhere that we can't win close games against top 8 opposition.

I had a look at the numbers, was shocked to see that since Ratten's been coach:

vs teams that made the 8

Won 1 game by 12 points or less
Lost 14 games by 12 points or less
Drew 1 game.

(if Freo make the finals our win over them will make it 2 wins- there's a silver lining for Ratts!)

vs teams that missed on the 8

Won 7 by 12 points or less
Lost 3 by 12 points or less

So we've won 1 tight game in 16 played against finals teams since Ratten took over. And the trend has been consistent, 2 or 3 losses of this kind per year. The one game we won was against St Kilda last year.

Any theories on why we have this lamentable record?
Author:  CK95 [ Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Injuries?
Author:  Scotty12000 [ Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
You can look at it one of three ways:

1. We lack a little finishing skill under pressure at the tail end of tough matches;
2. We're 2 kicks off being a really good finals side (make sense); or
3. Sakc Ratts
Author:  simonverbeek [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Good analysis aramari. I have thought about this a lot and reckon it is a very revealing set of numbers that show our club to be hitting a glass ceiling under the current regime.

I reckon the official response from the club and Ratts would be:

"Injuries, inaccuracy at goalkicking, umpiring, the wind, parochial opposition fans, players had the flu, tribunal, injuries, it was raining, ball didn't bounce our way, the tag on Judd was too rough, inaccurate goalkicking..........................did I mention injuries?"
Author:  Sydney Blue [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
I remember a time not so long ago when posters used to put up list of 10 goal plus floggings
Makes a change to see a list of close losses

But having said that this group are a bunch of chokers - when ever they look like taking the next step they slip back . They cant win 4 or 5 in a row and when ever there is a chance to win a final , take top spot on the ladder win a position in the eight or win a final against good opposition - they choke


and brace yourself it is heading our way real soon
Author:  Pafloyul [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
simonverbeek wrote:
Good analysis aramari. I have thought about this a lot and reckon it is a very revealing set of numbers that show our club to be hitting a glass ceiling under the current regime.

I reckon the official response from the club and Ratts would be:

"Injuries, inaccuracy at goalkicking, umpiring, the wind, parochial opposition fans, players had the flu, tribunal, injuries, it was raining, ball didn't bounce our way, the tag on Judd was too rough, inaccurate goalkicking..........................did I mention injuries?"


I'd don't think we are willing to make the tough decisions to go that extra step, that's my honest opinion. :cool: I mean this in a slightly less dramatic fashion than it may appear in writing but like you infer; scratching around for answers and making excuses is easier than being honest with ourselves.
Author:  BigKev [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Tends to be a thing with young, inexperienced teams. Hopefully those days are mostly behind us.

Could be worse ... we could be Richmond. :wink:
Author:  Braithy [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
BigKev wrote:
Tends to be a thing with young, inexperienced teams. Hopefully those days are mostly behind us.


Sometimes the answer is just simple straight-forward common sense. As Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Yarran, etc enter their prime, I'd expect this trend to halt?
Author:  SA Blue [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Alone it doesn't tell me much. You will need to add some data.

Just from the data you showed, it could be assumed that we beat the top teams by more than 12 and that we are very rarely beaten by an great margin against them. That would be good thing.
Author:  Bluey44 [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Agree more data needed.

Were they wearing sky blue jerseys?
Were they wearing fluoro boots?
Was Ratts on bench or in box??
Author:  aramari [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
SA Blue wrote:
Alone it doesn't tell me much. You will need to add some data.

Just from the data you showed, it could be assumed that we beat the top teams by more than 12 and that we are very rarely beaten by an great margin against them. That would be good thing.


I'll have a look, but a close watcher of CFC over the last few years might decide that when we're allowed to play our way we are very dangerous and can blow good teams away. When the clamps are put on we struggle to grind wins out against good opposition.
Author:  aramari [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
FWIW

Games decided by more that 12 points vs top 8 teams in Ratten era:

Won 14 average win 38.0
Lost 27 average loss 46.4

Not surprising as we have on average been a worse team than our opponents in the top 8 (if we had finished 4th or 5th every year we'd be an "average" finals team)

One win from 16 close games is surprisingly bad though.
Author:  Braithy [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Uh-oh.

Ratten witch hunt to commence in; 5 ... 4 ... 3 ... 2 ...
Author:  Synbad [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Braithy wrote:
Uh-oh.

Ratten witch hunt to commence in; 5 ... 4 ... 3 ... 2 ...




I hear the snow has been pretty good for some down hill skiing lately
Author:  Braithy [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Synbad wrote:
Braithy wrote:
Uh-oh.

Ratten witch hunt to commence in; 5 ... 4 ... 3 ... 2 ...




I hear the snow has been pretty good for some down hill skiing lately



It has. But at the bottom of the hill it flattens out and gets harder.

We're nearly there.
Author:  Synbad [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Braithy wrote:
Synbad wrote:
Braithy wrote:
Uh-oh.

Ratten witch hunt to commence in; 5 ... 4 ... 3 ... 2 ...




I hear the snow has been pretty good for some down hill skiing lately



It has. But at the bottom of the hill it flattens out and gets harder.

We're nearly there.



A cuple more years of Ratts and the kids will be having their farewell ... from all those years ago.......
Author:  Braithy [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
They'll need wheelbarrows to carry all that silverware outta the place.
Author:  Synbad [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
Braithy wrote:
They'll need wheelbarrows to carry all that silverware outta the place.

Pretend wheelbarrows for pretend silverware.

Actually we used to win more silverware under Pagan... nowadays we have lofty dreams of home final games.

Our window of opportunity is to win one elim final... and then the window shuts on us ....

:lol:
Author:  Braithy [ Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Close Ones
You have little faith, young jedi.
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