As some of you would be aware there is an extremely long thread on Big Footy about this and a smaller thread on CSC commenting on the Big Footy thread. I have made up a graphic to defend our position and to justify why we are very close.

It appears to me that there are very few opposition supporters posting, who have any idea about our list. The original OP question, was "How close are Carlton to a flag?". On that basis, it is vital to look at our improvement over the past few years and probably more importantly 2011, where we made great strides in a number of areas. This is the best guideline to how we are travelling and can we improve even more in 2012 and beyond. The answer lies in the following 2 paragraphs and the graphic below.

The improvement of many players, the fitness of the squad, the application of our game plan, the never say die attitude of the boys and the depth that we had been lacking. There also was the emergence of a couple of new stars in the making. There was a number of positional changes that turned out to be coaching masterstrokes - Yarran, Henderson, Walker, Thornton the main ones.

Even with the above all going to plan, injuries to vital players that really tested our depth, were really the reason that we dropped out of the top 4 and had to go to Perth in week 2. The injury curse struck even harder and key players were missing for the semi final. The graphic shows the players who were unavailable or underdone and left at home. On the left are the guys on the list last year (I have excluded those who didn't play a game). The second column is the games played. The third column is the games missed. Naturally some of these are due to form, but there were heaps of games missed by vital players. The fourth column is a bar chart showing the proportion played from a possible 24 down to one game.

The White coloured bars are to indicate the number of games played. The Orange coloured bars are to indicate the number of games missed, by those who would have been in the squad if not injured etc. If they are just showing White, then I considered that they were really only fill-ins for the injured (Joseph, Davies & Tuohy might have an argument with that). Any of those boys could consolidate a spot in 2012 as they came on in leaps and bounds in 2011. Finally the red bars are those missing from the Semi Final. This is quite a large injury list. Who knows how much difference they would have made, but surely it can be seen that we were way under our best side.

Anyway, as usual, you guys will be the judge. I think that we are closer than a lot of people are prepared to concede. Maybe not in 2012, but certainly in the next few years.

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2002:> "In their Masters Chambers
They Gathered for their Feast
They Stabbed us with their Steely Knives
But They Just Can't Kill The Beast!" <2016

THE BLUEBAGGER BEAST IS BAACKK!!

Make no mistake. We ARE close. I thought we were a chance last year but injuries in the last couple of weeks put paid to that. had we beaten WCE we may have played off. Geelong was lucky to beat us (2 points and a missed goal) and we stuck to Collingwood for three and a half quarters.

A full list on the park and a spot of luck and we are a big chance. The window is officially OPEN.

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Let slip the Blues of war (with apologies to William Shakespeare) (and Sir Francis Bacon, just in case)

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"They're [REDACTED]'

258 days

I like to look at it this way. Each day that goes past we get closer to our next flag.

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A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" -Winston Churchill

L.M 35-06

Sorry, but this also tells us nothing.

Isn't players missing games in light of Geelong resting their players throughout the year in vogue at the moment?

What do Mark Austin, Ryan Houlihan and Setanta o'hAilpin's games missed last season have to do with this season?

At no point in this thread do you actually answer your own question or show how the statistics down the bottom have anything to do with your question. The concept of a best 22, let alone the existance of one, or a set answer for all 26 games or 17 other clubs is debatable at best, nor defined here..

By the logic of your argument, we've had our best players on the park for the past three years and therefore have underachieved. In reality, what the other 17 clubs have done has probably had an equal say in our fortunes as well.

Kudos for having a go, spending your own time putting this together for no gain or whatever, but personally, it's probably a three part question at its most simple - How good we are over 22 weeks > How lucky we are over another three weeks > The fittest, most committed, luckiest and best team on the day.

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BLUES 2010: PAV AND JUDD = FLAGS. DOING IT FOR THE LOVE OF DICK PRATT.

HAVE YOU SIGNED UP FOR TALKINGCARLTON SUPERCOACH 2009 YET?

Seriously Rhino did someone steal your Teddy Bear when you where a baby?

_________________
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" -Winston Churchill

L.M 35-06

Really? And your contributions bemoaning everything about modern society over in Stuff is such a ray of sunshine too...

There's about a dozen threads here that achieve very little other than "Give your prediction of when are we going to win the flag?". I think there was an analogy in the restaurant thread by Bluehammer about your favourite pizza restaurant, everyone gives their version and probably never reads anyone elses. That's these threads in a nutshell. "I reckon we'll win it in 2013, and Judd will win the norm smith. Go Blues" times 40396745...

So far, no-ones been able to show anything substantial that gives a new look onto why we're going to win a flag, that says anything more than pointing to the ladder and saying we finished fifth last season. Yet if this stuff turned up in the Herald Sun, everyone would be all over it, ala "Judd has a doona", "Walker wears a hat", etc.

At the risk of not sounding constructive, which I am here (see, BM, talking myself up as a good bloke, learning from your posts already?), here's some suggestions for someone to do to the research into:

* - Back when we were crap, everyone used to point out how few players we had on our list that were around the 100-200 game mark compared to the competition's best. No-one's refreshed that gem. I'm interested to see how we stack up there.

* - Our best 22 will often see players go from being a fringe player for 2 seasons before really establishing themselves in the 22. We've had 2-3 each year. Our match commitee seems to value apprenticeships. It was Robinson, Yarran and to a lesser extent, Ellard this year. Who will it be this year? Where the opportunities in our side to do this? Who could make way?

* - Player management. Time on ground, interchange rotations, resting players. How crucial was Geelong resting players to their premiership success? Do we have that capability?

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BLUES 2010: PAV AND JUDD = FLAGS. DOING IT FOR THE LOVE OF DICK PRATT.

HAVE YOU SIGNED UP FOR TALKINGCARLTON SUPERCOACH 2009 YET?

How about you do the research and show the padwans how it is done.

Personally I like the fact that people take the time out and do research, analysis, present hypotheses etc. It all makes a contribution to the conversation*



*Learn from the Master Rhino thats how you talk yourself up to be a good bloke.

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A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" -Winston Churchill

L.M 35-06

Happy to do so and have done so in the past (game previews mostly). I just don't see the point in talking ourselves up so much. I remember when everyone said we'd be winning flags under Pagan when we won the pre-season cup a couple of times. Got us nowhere.

Regardless, it usually ends up in TL;DR territory or the replies usually shift the agenda south back to "Yeah, Carlton will finish third and I reckon we'll win the flag in 2013. You heard it here first!"

_________________
BLUES 2010: PAV AND JUDD = FLAGS. DOING IT FOR THE LOVE OF DICK PRATT.

HAVE YOU SIGNED UP FOR TALKINGCARLTON SUPERCOACH 2009 YET?

There needs to be some level of expectation..

Anyway, we are supporters after all so the point is to brew excitement and maintain hope that we are gonna be awesome and PWN them all next season!

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The problem will be made. for the solution to be sold, to your face before your eyes, tolerance is now the new danger

Isn't a premiership being "some" expectation the sort of thing that leads to premature calls to sack the coach/trade players/rebuild?

Fair enough we expect to do well this year. Too many variables, most of which are well out of anyone's control though to say that the flag is the be all and end of all. Could be worse, we could be expecting Geelong/Brisbane-esque dynasties here, I guess.

St Kilda's 2010 is basically defined by that Stephen Milne kick that bounced the wrong way. In amongst it, there's minimal development of players, their list is terrible, their off-field status declined heavily, and their recruiting was only saved by Michael Voss in setting new standards for Fail.

I think I'd prefer to lose a grand final by less than a kick, but see spots 22-38 have minimal difference between them, recruit and draft smartly for a change, see us pay off debt, and see our membership numbers continue to grow, as unromantic as it may sound.

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BLUES 2010: PAV AND JUDD = FLAGS. DOING IT FOR THE LOVE OF DICK PRATT.

HAVE YOU SIGNED UP FOR TALKINGCARLTON SUPERCOACH 2009 YET?

Here we go round the mulberry bush....

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Let slip the Blues of war (with apologies to William Shakespeare) (and Sir Francis Bacon, just in case)

Our development might be on track, but don't forget that there are now 17 other teams we need to consider as well. Whilst we might be getting better, so too, I dare say, are they. Jury is out on how the Pies will go with Bucks at the helm, or how Geelong will go after their retirements. Until we can go into games knowing full well we can slaughter all and sundry, it's a case of getting ahead of ourselves. Games last year like the 2 WCE ones, the dogs, the pies and the most important bogey of all, the hawks, we were just found wanting. I think a preliminary this year is a fair prediction, any further than that I just think we'll be out of our depth.

Closer than any time in the last decade.

Whether that's close enough remains to be seen.

I for one am a believer for various reasons. I haven't been as confident of a shot before the coming season. Hopefully my faith is well placed.

... will this change into a discussion on topics such as how Jordan Russell is washed up and how he shouldn't have finished 2nd in the 2010 JN count?

Only then can this match the level of BigFooty

I can read a lot into the stats provided by BB...so thanks BB.

We know that CFC had an excpetionally high injury list in 2011.
We were plagued by injury in the finals in particular to our bigmen in the finals. see table above.

The probability of a repeat of the injury list is lesser in 2012 imo, and I would put money on it that Kreuzer, Waite, Hampson, Gibbs, Russell and Curnow will not all be unavailable in the 2012 finals campaign. Surely lightning doesn't strike the same spot twice.

I know we will improve with the addition of the abovementioned to our finals campaign in 2012. IMO, and in the opinion of many CFC and footy followers in general, we were only one KPF down from beating WCE in the final last year, (or maybe an umpire decision in favour of Walker).

We will overcome the shortfall next year with a deeper KP list with the addition of the abovementioned, Rowe and Mitchell to do the job we need to do to win that flag.

Every Carlton supporter has the god given right to wear Blue coloured glasses. Relax Rhino, Carlton supporters are all right and on our team. They are a bit bias, that's all. The enemy wear Black and White/ red/ yellow or a combo of those colours.

We're about 8 and a half months away from our next flag.
So pretty close.

Geez, you blokes are tough. I usually write topics for threads and go into minute detail. I am aware that I am long winded and often get accused of too much detail and many complain about the length of the post. I have made an effort to shorten my posts and you guessed it, someone says that there isn’t enough detail. Well @#$%&! me with a feather.


One point that has come up in this thread, both here and on the other forums, is that certain players missed x number of games, but would they have been selected if fit? I have gone to great lengths to research the ins and outs and the reasons published by the club. I have been able to get a reasonably accurate picture of how many were due to injury. EG: If Joe Bloggs was omitted from the team in round 16, but played in the Bullies, we can reasonably deduce that he was dropped. By the same token, if Fred Nurks was listed as injured and not available for round 16 and then returned via the Bullies in round 18; he is still underdone, but not up to AFL fitness. I have not counted these players as injured. In short, I have been fairly conservative classifying them as injured.


The following list is the games these guys missed minus the tune up games in the two’s:


Games missed due to injury:

Kreuz: 12 – inc Semi Final

Panther: 11 – inc Semi Final

Sugar: 10 – inc Semi Final

Jamo: 10

Hammer: 10 – inc Semi Final

Emu: 10 – inc Semi Final

Hendo: 9

Curnow: 9 – inc Semi Final

Carrots: 5

Rusty: 5 – inc Semi Final

Ellard: 3

T-Bird: 3

Duigs: 2

Laids: 2

Robbo: 1

_________________
2002:> "In their Masters Chambers
They Gathered for their Feast
They Stabbed us with their Steely Knives
But They Just Can't Kill The Beast!" <2016

THE BLUEBAGGER BEAST IS BAACKK!!

Sorry. Can you please provide more detail....

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Never argue with idiots. They drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience!!!

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