TalkingCarlton
http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/

Giving Ourselves a Chance
http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=31142		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Sugarcane [ Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Giving Ourselves a Chance
A close look at the top eight in 2011 reveals that the 8 finalists largely resembled the most recent premiership sides/grand finalists. The AFL might argue the draft and salary cap ensures everyone gets their time in the sun, but the reality is the cycle moves slowly and once you find yourself in the upper part of the ladder you tend to stay there for some time. It stands to reason then once there you give yourself a chance of winning a premiership.

1 Geelong - 2011, 2009, 2007 premiers, 2008 grand finalists
2 Collingwood - 2010 premiers, 2011 grand finalists
3 Hawthorn - 2008 premiers
4 West Coast - 2006 premiers, 2005 grand finalists
5 Carlton - NIL
6 St.Kilda - 2009 and 2010 grand finalists
7 Sydney - 2005 premiers, 2006 grand finalists
8 Essendon* - NIL

Observations…

The above tells us Carlton stand the best chance of being the next NEW premiership side.

The Unlucky
Teams who were there abouts for several years but who missed out on a premiership - Bulldogs, St.Kilda

The Cycle
Teams who won the 2001-2004 premierships are now cellar dwellers (Port and Bris) while Ess (2000 premiers) and Carlton (1999 grand finalists) were long time cellar dwellers up until the last couple of years.

Up, Down and Up Again
Collingwood and West Coast were both top teams circa 2002-2005 and then spent some time down the ladder stocking up on draft picks before being top four sides again.
Author:  The Rhino [ Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
That tells us absolutely nothing, I'm sorry.
Author:  mikeychook [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
And so the thread ends.
Author:  blue in the face [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
Bit harsh Rhino. At the very least it shows that Carlton and Bummers are the fresh talent on the rise. It gives me greater confidence that we will be up for a quite a few years.
Author:  The Rhino [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
You need a graph to realise that?
Author:  TheBluesMuse [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 10:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
It's not a graph. :)
Author:  The Rhino [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
Deep.
Author:  TheBluesMuse [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
:lol:
Author:  Warby [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
Hey sugarcane.....you put in some research and posted up some thoughts.

Don't heed the knockers....some don't do anything; but bag those that do have a go.

We're all hoping for an improved season....no....we're expecting it.....they simply must improve; and pretty quickly while we've hopefully got Judd at his peak and 28.
Author:  The Rhino [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
Warby wrote:
Hey sugarcane.....you put in some research and posted up some thoughts.

Don't heed the knockers....some don't do anything; but bag those that do have a go.

We're all hoping for an improved season....no....we're expecting it.....they simply must improve; and pretty quickly while we've hopefully got Judd at his peak and 28.


Yeah...quite right. I should be adding to the discussion, much like you have.

Feel free to glance over the following statistics that I have knocked up. Feel free to request the Excel formulas that I used to come to these shocking conclusions at your leisure.

Tom Hawkins - 27 goals
Darren Jolly - 12 goals
Shane Mumford - 11 goals
Sam Jacobs - 3 goals
Matthew Leunenberger - 5 goals
Robert Warnock - 4 goals
David Hille - 20 goals
Aaron Sandilands - 6 goals
Zac Smith - 14 goals
David Hale - 19 goals
Mark Jamar - 4 goals
Todd Goldstein - 14 goals
Matthew Lobbe - 1 goal
Tyrone Vickery - 36 goals
Ben McEvoy - 4 goals
Dean Cox - 20 goals
Will Minson - 6 goals

What does this data tell me?

Geelong had the second most goals scored by their main ruckman this year, and won the flag? Coincidence? You decide!

This is evidenced further by Hamish McIntosh scoring 13 goals in 2010 and only 1 in 2011. Did they move up the ladder? No.

Richmond will come from nowhere to be in the box seat for 2012 flag, on the back of a projected tally of 360 goals in 2012 from Tyrone Vickery. Coleman AND the flag? KB will be happy!

Unfortunately we are projected to come 14th next year due to Robbie Warnock being no good in front of goal. Remember when he had that chance to win the game against Geelong last year and hit the post? Not a coincidence. This was a clear indication that we aren't as good as Geelong at getting our ruckman to kick goals. Just look at those who scored less.

Sam Jacobs = PLAYED at Carlton once.
Matthew Leunenberger = SUPPORTED Carlton as a boy.

This tells me that our forwards coach, John Barker is discriminating against talls and refuses outright to teach them how to kick goals. This is further evidenced by our lack of talls in the forward line which has been highlighted by 425, 134 Herald Sun articles in the off season.

So what do I propose?

Well, I don't think it's a coincidence, but Robert Warnock is the brother of the Gold Coast's Matthew Warnock.

Robert Warnock also wears the #11 jumper.

Matthew Warnock plays full back.

The last #11 to play in a Carlton premiership, was the big Duke, Earl Spalding.

Matthew Warnock also plays with Gary Ablett, argued by some to be the best player in the league and earning up to 1.8 million dollars a season.

Our last full back when we were crap was Luke Livingston

Luke Livingston was only 192 cm, whereas Robert Warnock is 206cm.

Many great coaches will argue that a champion team is better than a team of champions. Therefore the Gold Coast will focus on having Matthew Warnock as good as Gary Ablett.

Sydney have Heath Grundy who is proficient at playing both full back and centre half forward.

Sydney also beat us in 2010 in a close qualifying final.

Sydney lost to West Coast in 2006 Grand Final, thanks largely to Adam Hunter swinging between centre half forward and full back.

DNA-testing-advisor.com reckons that approximately 25% of DNA is shared by siblings.

Therefore, the only way we can win the flag this year and even compete with Tyrone Vickery's 360 goal haul, is to have Robert Warnock alternating between centre half forward and full back, given that he could arguably statistically be anywhere between 7% (the difference in height between him and Luke Livingston) and 600% (the difference in salary between his and Gary Ablett, who will now be as good as his brother, Matthew's salary) better than what he is now.

If we as a team are 600% better this year we should expect to win roughly 84 games this season. Maybe enough for a top 4 finish???

Actually, shit, I reckon you're right Sugar..
Author:  BlueMark [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
The Rhino got a knock back on New Years eve, methinks

And he is still cut about it.
Author:  The Rhino [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
I maintain you led me on though..
Author:  TruBlueBrad [ Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
:lol:

Now imagine if you'd put that much effort and time into some analysis that does tell us something.
Author:  dane [ Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
The Rhino >>>>>>>>>> VB
Author:  kingkerna [ Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
BlueMark wrote:
The Rhino got a knock back on New Years eve, methinks

And he is still cut about it.

couple of letters missing there?
Author:  kkk [ Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
I'd like to get the current odds on Tyrone Vickery kicking 360 goals this year (before it becomes common knowledge).

BTW, if TV kicks his projected average in round 1, we're stuffed.
Author:  Warby [ Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
kkk wrote:
I'd like to get the current odds on Tyrone Vickery kicking 360 goals this year (before it becomes common knowledge).

BTW, if TV kicks his projected average in round 1, we're stuffed.


:lol:
Author:  Megaman [ Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
The 360 is what he is projected to kick after getting donuts in his round 1 game
Author:  Blue Vain [ Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
kingkerna wrote:
BlueMark wrote:
The Rhino got a knock back on New Years eve, methinks

And he is still cut about it.

couple of letters missing there?


:lol:
Author:  Sugarcane [ Fri Jan 06, 2012 3:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Giving Ourselves a Chance
The Rhino wrote:
That tells us absolutely nothing, I'm sorry.


Geez, I thought it illustrated that Carlton are the one side out of a possible 12 sides who are punching with the most successful sides of the past seven years, and therefore, are arguably best placed of the remaining 12 sides to be the next new premiership side. The fact we have made the finals 2 years running now probably backs this theory up.

I apologise if this is not new news to you. In the future I will make sure I consider whether you are already aware of my thoughts, before I post them on TC.

Have a great weekend Rhino.
Page 1 of 2 All times are UTC + 10 hours
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/