When I was 31 (Oct 2005) I wrote this on TalkingCarlton:

2006 will be a good year for travelling. Go and see the Pyramids. Or the Great Wall of China. Forget wins. Yup

2007 will be an improvement. Hmm...not really

2008 will bring hope. Shit yeah

2009 we'll be something. We're coming

2010 -2012 we'll be a force. It's on the cards

If we're to move over the threshold in 2009 we need to shove another side out of the eight. So who will it be?

Hawthorn - no chance

Geelong - ditto. Can't believe they only lost two games last year

Bulldogs - only if they have major injury concerns

Sydney - here's a chance. Looking shaky and have an aging list. I hope we beat them sensless in Sydney.

Adelaide - another who look to be on the decline. A definite chance to fall.

Collingwood - look pretty good early. They're usually there about.

St Kilda - If they fire on all cylinders they are top 8 material. Sometimes they misfire though. A moderate chance of falling, but just as likely to be in the 8.

North - if they play like they did against us they will struggle. It was mentioned in the call they have lost a heap of goals through Thompson and Grant which they will have to replace.

So at this stage, Sydney, Adelaide and North look like the teams most likely to fall with St Kilda a bit of a wildcard.

Thus, up to 4 clubs can move on in in 2009. You'd say Melbourne are no chance. Freo are crap, have a crap coach and would be long shots at best, yet in 2007 they made the grade. West Coast reckon they're finals bound in 2009 but they lack depth and experience. Brisbane are a bit one dimensional and will struggle away from the Gabba. Port are squibs.

That leaves us, Essendon*, and Richmond. A psychic on new years day reckoned Carlton and Essendon* would be the big improvers in 2009.

I heard somewhere that a team has come from outside the 8 one year to top 4 the next, something like 10 out of the past 11 years.

Richmond look less likely than they did perhaps last year?

Essendon* are quick, but they may suffer burnout come season's end.

So our odds are quite good if we play to the top of our game. I think we can move past Sydney and Adelaide and possibly North in 2009. Top 4 isn't out of the equation, though it will be tough.

Cue spooky music.




Hey verbs your physic.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

I'm with you verbs.

Great thread and post; it's the BIG question.

I believe we will pass Tigers and Lions from outside the 8 and also pass Swans, Crows, Dogs and Kangas for obvious reasons, but as we all know injury plays a big part in the sheme of things.

Fortunately, I see depth at the Blues. Yes I know no one can replace Judd, Fev, Waite and Jamo, but hey if they don't all go down simultaneously, I think we can cover them.

2009 is looking good in my books. Admitedly I was expecting top 8 in 2008, but we faired pretty well.

We can only get better and I expect top 4, let alone top 8.

The spooky music from Agro is the possibility of a flag in 2009.

Anything can happen....and we're in the BOX seat.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Agree with pretty much everything you wrote Verbs however I don't agree with the following:


I think Brisbane are a top 8 side and potentially top 4.....provide the likes of Brown and Black stay healthy.

Essendon* are unlikely to make the 8 IMO.....I think they'll win anywhere from 6-10 matches.

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There is no footy god

I think it is 15 years straight ie ever since top eight introduced that a team that didn't play finals the previous year has ended up in the top four the following year...

Every team has to have injuries, and some teams might lose players for the entire year....Our Best team on paper will Definately make the Finals, However what are our chances if Fevola went down with a season ending injury & Judd missed few games?


I mentioned those two names, because if any of them goes down, then we simply will struggle to make the finals.... I just wished that we had another capable forward who can kick 60-70 goals to help out Fev... but we just don't..... So fingers Crossed we have a mininal injury Free Season

By about round 5-6 we will know if Carlton are a finals chance.
We have to beat Richmond and Sydney in those early rounds to be a finals contender.

If we get some decent umpiring decisions*, we might be a chance against Essendon* too. They have got some good players - I watched them last night and they were impressive...just not many in the midfield at this stage.


So at least 2 out of 3 of these games have to be wins. If we can do that we are a good chance of playing finals.


* refer back to first round match of 2008 which was terribly umpired.
They even gave numerous free kicks to that diving soccer fullforward they have.

As far as I'm concerned, they call all get the @#$%&! outta the way...

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Cheap Bike Insurance
Selling Baseball Cards

That's the ticket Sparky

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Against Essendon*??? Does this image ring a bell?

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WADA medical director Dr Alan Vernec describes Essendon* FC drug case as biggest scandal in team sport the world of sport has seen. #WC2WB

#GUILTY

"It was a very good year, It was very good year...!"

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Just because I'm offended, doesn't mean I'm wrong.

Essendon* were basically at full strength last night against the lions and scraped in by 2 points .If brown black and Power had played they would have won for sure.

If ratten goes in with the all out attack game plan like last year and goes for a 20 goal shot out we will lose as they have more options up forward than we do
If we are to beat them we need to play ugly and stop their run .

First 6 games will define the year we need to be at least 3 and 3 by round 6

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

I think Sydney and North are vulnerable and the rest will stay. Richmond and Carlton should make it in their place but I would be surprised if we fininsh in the top 4.
I agree with the injury bit. If Fev goes we will be looking for goals from unlikely cources. Waite. Walker. Fisher. Kreuzer at FF.
If Judd goes we will suffer greatly but we do have a pretty good midfield these days and so we might struggle through.
Fev is the worry IMO.
Round One is a MUST if we are to get the psycho right for the year.

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Let slip the Blues of war (with apologies to William Shakespeare) (and Sir Francis Bacon, just in case)

North are struggling. Sydney are on the edge. Port, Brisbane, Essendon* and our good selves are on the climb.

Richmond bottom four.

St Kilda are clicking well.

Expect Hawthorn to rise as the year goes on.

At this stage I can only really see Hawthorn and Collingwood coming in. Hopefully we aren't one of the two to drop out. Smashing Sydney will firm our position up nicely.

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"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

We are getting ahead of ourselves a bit here .

Just been beaten by a cr@p team with an injury list a mile long .

One week at a time .

At this stage North Melbourne are the only team showing definate signs of a significant decline . Sydney did beat last years premiers .

Brisbane and Port Adelaide are on the up . Put us in that mix as well . 3 teams for 1 spot . 19 weeks to go . We need to improve a lot on last weeks effort .

One week at a time !!

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Get the facts first.
Then you can distort them at your leisure.

If we have to rely on umpiring then we are not going to make it. If we are good enough the umpiring will be irrelevant.

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"our electorate seeks less to be informed and more to be validated." Sad times.

North and Sydney definitely struggling. Swap Hawthorn for Adelaide and I'm not too far off the mark. Everyone has pretty much written off the Hawks and North for 2009. Sydney are right on the edge.

Quite possible all three will fall. One of Carlton, Essendon*, Port and Brisbane to miss with the other three playing finals in 2009 replacing Hawthorn, North and Sydney.

Not sure I'd write off the Hawks just yet, but a loss this week would seal the deal for mine.

north never really stood a chance. . The luck i have is that after 'not rating them' for 3years, by continuing to hold that mindset the chances are they'd fall sooner or later. . .they're pretty bad.

Hawthorn i still wouldnt write off (although theres no evidence lately to justify such a claim)

And sydney likewise i wouldnt write off. . . Port adelaide may fall into the eight, they're with Essendon* fighting for that last spot.

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Cuck Follingwood

Final 8

St Kilda
Geelong
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Adelaide
Carlton
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
------------
Sydney
Essendon*
Hawthorn
West Coast
Fremantle
Nth Melbourne
Richmond
Melbourne


FINALS Week 1

Adelaide V Port Adelaide (Adelaide Win)
Carlton V Brisbane (Carlton Win)

St Kilda V Collingwood (St Kilda Win)
Geelong V Bulldogs (Geelong Win)

FINALS Week 2

Collingwood V Adelaide (Collingwood Win)
Bulldogs V Carlton (Carlton Win)

FINALS Week 3

St KIlda V Carlton (Carlton Win)
Geelong V Collingwood (Collingwood Win)

GRAND FINAL

Carlton V Collingwood (Carlton Win)

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*(grow - fun - gah)

Yeah but whatabout your whataboutism.