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| Author: | Siegfried [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 6:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Premiership window |
The recruitment of Watson, McCarthy and Mitchell got me wondering about the Club's thinking of how close we were to challenging for a flag, and what changes were needed to get us there. It seems to me that the Club decided that we weren't going to win a flag with the current crop of KPPs. If that is the case, and we are waiting for at least a couple of these new KPPs to establish themselves, then does that readjust our Premiership window? Hawthorn built a Premiership team around Franklin and Roughead (and the addition of some runners), but it wasn't until their 4th season that they won the flag. History suggests that they might have been lucky, getting on a role at the right time of the season. There was always the question in my mind of whether we had a window before Fevola retired. I didn't think we did, which is one of the reasons why I was happy to see him go, especially given we got a 10-year forward for him. Now the quetion is whether the window opens while Judd is still in his prime. If we are relying on Watson, McCarthy, Henderson and Mitchell to be our key tall spine in our Premiership, then that puts it at least 3 years away IMHO. The fact that we have some gun mids and some gun small forwards developing may bring it forward a year. I'll say our realistic window opens in 2013. |
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| Author: | SurreyBlue [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
Well if you listened to Blueman previously and with the "Korean" war looking likely, I would say CFC Premiers in 2011!!!! |
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| Author: | TheBluesMuse [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
2013..... |
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| Author: | DocSherrin III [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
Have said for about 4 years it (expectation) gets serious in 2011. Not wavering from that belief now. |
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| Author: | dane [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
I think it is severely hampered by wearing pale blue. |
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| Author: | camel [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
dane wrote: I think it is severely hampered by wearing pale blue. And giving Watson #10. |
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| Author: | Teddy Hopkins [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
camelboy wrote: dane wrote: I think it is severely hampered by wearing pale blue. And giving Watson #10. Thinking about it, John James was our best #10 and a CHB as is Watson. So its time #10 came good again. 2013 for mine but I am hoping earlier. |
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| Author: | The_Cranium [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
I reckon there are far too many of us who lower our expectations for fear of either being disappointed or perceived as arrogant. Maybe its something else, but most will try and tell you that its because they are a 'realist'. Any Hawthorn supporter who said they were a flag chance for 2008 at this time in 2007 would have been told they were being ridiculous. Collingwood supporters saying they were a flag chance for 2010 12 months ago would have been laughed at. There seems to be an awful lot of forever waiting. 2 years ago people were saying 2011 was the time to start having a crack. Now its 2013 or 2014. 2009 but fo a couple of bad losses that we should have won, we should have finished top 4. This year was a year to stop and take stock of things and rejig the side. Even so, at midway we were every chance to be top 4. It was a disappointing second half. For me, 2011 must be top 4 and anything less without mitigating circumstances (i.e. half the side blows out knees) must be viewed as a failure. Its time to start delivering on all the promise and potential. We need to put ourselves in a good position, top 4 and from there, well, who knows? Go Blues |
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| Author: | Hotcox [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
2011 |
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| Author: | Humpers [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
I think we are a chance in 2011 but realistically (i.e. > 25%) in 2012. |
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| Author: | bondiblue [ Wed Nov 24, 2010 10:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
I reckon there's a Judd era and a Post Judd era and we win flags in both. I thought that before the draft and following the draft we haven't just added talent but presssure for spots and 6 x 10 year KP Forwards and Defenders, plus 3 x 10 year ruckmen. Now you don't have to be Eisnstein to recognise that all we have to add to formula that is runners. We got plenty with a few more stepping up in 2011. If Austin/ Setanta make CHB their own (like Setanta did as a CHF in the legendry "Santa and his Helpers") then everything else falls together down back with plenty of pressure for the 3rd tall and we're sorted. Like Doc, 2011. I'm sticking to 2011.... see thread Judd post and pre era thread (no link) 30-35% is worth the bet. Last year I had $1K on the Blues spread to win flag, GF, Top 4 and Top 8. with$500 of that on the top 8. Remember we weren't supposed to make it in the post Fevola, Stevens era... and post Bannister Edwards Bentick & Hartlett. WE were 7 wins 4 losses (and we could've been 9-2), so we were doing well enough to be figured as a good bet to make they 4. We're a mush better team than that...I should say list...a better list. The addition of Kreuzer Laidler and Collins. Another preseason into Gibbs' engine, Judd goal kicking, Murphy strength and goals, Simmo's goal kicking, and there's your engine room. Maybe McLean may be good enough to be considered a 'new' recruit. Then there's the couple more in their 2nd-4th year that step up and make the grade (considering we have 23 under 23): Who'll step up? Plenty. Try and write up a list of the players you can't fit into the 2011 midfield and you'll see we've got depth like the Pies did in 2010. It's amazing. All of them get another preseason into them. What if one of Watson, McCarthy or Mitchell step up this year? I reckon Watson will surprise and Mitchell looks ready made to me. Diugan was picked to play too. Top 4? .............No worries Prelim vs Doggies? ..........No worries GF Saints vs Carlton? ............No worries I've got the same money on them next year. I'll win with the Blues making 8,4,prelim,gf .........and premiers will be a bonus...and I'll clean up. Window Wide Open Right NOW Bring it on! |
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| Author: | missnaut [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 8:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
Humpers wrote: I think we are a chance in 2011 but realistically (i.e. > 25%) in 2012. yeah I agree with this. Outside chance next year - would need a few things to go our way, such as good run with injuries and teams around us to falter - but 2012 I think we have a good chance. |
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| Author: | blue4 [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 8:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
2011 and no excuses bar serious break down in injuries. |
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| Author: | kots1234 [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
2011. We cannot rely on the new recruits to win us one. If they do come on as we hope then it extends our window for a few years but still from 2011 we have to be a shot. Hendo with a full year at the club at CHF will only see him get better. Waitey being allowed to settle up forward will only improve his game also and if our younger mids like Murphy, Gibbs together with Judd can stay healthy I see no reason why we cannot win it in 2011. BUT - yes there is a but - our backline must stay healthy. The two players that we can least afford to get injured in our side are Jamison and Bower. If they can play out the year I think we will do very well. |
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| Author: | Blue Monday [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
2011 maturing and learning to play team football 2012 opens the window 2013 provides a legitimate shot If you include this years recruits - then talent, quality, committment and belief of the playing group to win a premiership is no doubt there. Its a question of how the TEAM to mature, learn how to play together, understand their strengths and limitations almost intuitively. That is still a year away and the saints and maggies have this covered. 2011 will reviel a more intuitive style of playing together to the point of possibly earning a home final but increased hardness, strength and height show through in 2012-2013 |
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| Author: | JK [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
The fact that people have the attitude that 2013 is the year we push for a flag is beyond me. Any team in the top 4 has their premiership window open as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about you guys, but top 4 is the expectation for 2011. Anybody who says our window only opens in 2013 is going to be satisfied with finishing in the bottom reaches of the 8 again and a first up elimination final played somewhere in this vast country. Get a grip people. 2011 is when we aim for top 4, and that means 2011 is when we are a legitimate shot at #17. |
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| Author: | bondiblue [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 1:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
Josh Kaplan wrote: The fact that people have the attitude that 2013 is the year we push for a flag is beyond me. Any team in the top 4 has their premiership window open as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about you guys, but top 4 is the expectation for 2011. Anybody who says our window only opens in 2013 is going to be satisfied with finishing in the bottom reaches of the 8 again and a first up elimination final played somewhere in this vast country. Get a grip people. 2011 is when we aim for top 4, and that means 2011 is when we are a legitimate shot at #17. Logical. Top 4 gives us a Double Chance. Get into a Prelim and win it, then after that it aint just a 25% chance anymore, it is 50/50. |
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| Author: | Blue Monday [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
Logical perhaps.. but realistic ? I'm as optimistic as the next believer but... lets put down those tinted Ray Bans for a second... Arguably there are a few clubs in 2011 with windows opened wider than ours ? If (big if) we made it to top 4 and then double chances, blah blah blah, won a flag, it would be perceived to have been pinched. (which obviously I'd be more than happy to accept ) |
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| Author: | bondiblue [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
Blue Monday wrote: Logical perhaps.. but realistic ? I'm as optimistic as the next believer but... lets put down those tinted Ray Bans for a second... Arguably there are a few clubs in 2011 with windows opened wider than ours ? If (big if) we made it to top 4 and then double chances, blah blah blah, won a flag, it would be perceived to have been pinched. (which obviously I'd be more than happy to accept ) True. We're talking top 4 here. I can't see why that's not realistic. It's a natural progression from where we've been. Do you think the top 4 will be the same as last year? Pies Cats Aints Dogs Who are these other clubs? We're a BIG chance, and it has nothing to do with rose coloured glasses. Have a look at our list and even ask opposition supporters where to for Carlton. I'm hearing the general expectation is Carlton to make the 4 and Aints, Cats and Dogs most likely to slip out. It's all guess work....educated guess work. |
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| Author: | The_Cranium [ Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Premiership window |
I think the dogs and the cats will drop back next year. Saints will continue to bore teams into submission and be around the mark but by no means a certainty for top 4. The pies you would imagine will be up there. I think there are genuinely 2 and perhaps even 3 of the top 4 places available to teams such as Carlton, Freo, Sydney and Hawthorn. The window is definately ajar next year and there only needs to be a bit of luck along the way for it to be wide open |
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