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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:02 pm 
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The Fevola - assessment thread has a quote from AIRCAV about the top 8 goalkickers kicking 20 goals. This led the user of the Blueseum ID (For today anyway) to have a look at the top 8 goalkickers for 2009 and compare to our last good year, 2001:

2001:
1. Matthew Lappin - 49
2. Lance Whitnall - 37
3. Anthony Koutoufides - 32
4. Ryan Houlihan - 28
5. Brendan Fevola - 27
6. Adrian Hickmott - 22
7. Brett Ratten - 21
8. Scott Camporeale - 20

2009:
1. Brendan Fevola - 89
2. Eddie Betts - 38
3. Marc Murphy - 31
=4. Bryce Gibbs - 15
=4. Kade Simpson - 15
=6. Ryan Houlihan - 13
=6. Matthew Kreuzer - 13
=8. Chris Judd - 12

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... al+leaders

Interestingly, the total goals kicked by the top 8 in both years both equal 226 goals, each from the top 8 performers. Good stat for those spruiking the benefits of the multi-prong forward line and highlighting that there doesn't need to be a loss of goalkicking.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:08 pm 
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And for those interested, our top 8 in 1995 kicked 266 majors...

1. Stephen Kernahan - 63
2. Brad Pearce - 52
3. Earl Spalding - 34
4. Matt Clape - 31
5. Greg Williams - 29
6. Anthony Koutoufides - 22
7. Dean Rice - 21
8. Mil Hanna - 14

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:13 pm 
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Robert Walls
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so we need about 10 goals a game from our top 8 goal kickers.

Who will they be in 2010?

Eddie Betts
Marc Murphy
Bryce Gibbs
Kade Simpson
Ryan Houlihan
Matthew Kreuzer
Chris Judd
???????

1.3 goals/game

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:32 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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2010
Top 8

Waite
Betts
Kreuzer
Henderson
Murphy
Yarran
Simpson
Judd

Support from

O'hAilpin
Robinson
Garlett
Houlihan
Gibbs
Walker
Carrazzo
Simpson


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 5:55 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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No probs providing inspiration!

My comment wasn't around the top 8 so much as the fact that the Premier averages 7 players who score in excess of 20 with a leading goalkicker around the 60+ mark.

Thats what we need to have.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:52 pm 
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Rod McGregor

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yibbida wrote:
so we need about 10 goals a game from our top 8 goal kickers.


Each? 80 goals a game???

Just give us the flag now!!!


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:09 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Bluey89 wrote:
yibbida wrote:
so we need about 10 goals a game from our top 8 goal kickers.


Each? 80 goals a game???

Just give us the flag now!!!


ummm no. Our top 8 goals scorers for the year need to kick 10 goals between them every week. With bonus goals coming from others.

Defense will be our key from now on. Need to play like Swans.....

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:32 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Quote:
2009:
1. Brendan Fevola - 89
2. Eddie Betts - 38
3. Marc Murphy - 31
=4. Bryce Gibbs - 15
=4. Kade Simpson - 15
=6. Ryan Houlihan - 13
=6. Matthew Kreuzer - 13
=8. Chris Judd - 12



The concerning thing is the bottom 6.

- Gibbs
- Simpson
- Kreuzer
- Judd
& yes, even Houlihan are all capable of kicking 25+ goals each next year.

Setanta & Henderson should both be given ample opportunities up forward and can add maybe 20+ goals each also.
(Note:- I seriously see Setanta more than capable of kicking 40 goals if we just left him there. He kicked 12 goals from 12 games this year being thrown around everywhere. Back Forward & Even Rucking again!)

But the interesting one is Waite.
He managed 10 goals from 9 games this year playing in a similar way to Setanta (ie, being thrown all over the ground). If we can leave him up forward he's easilly capable of kicking 50 goals a year. He managed 39 in 2005 playing second fiddle to Fevola.

So hopefully:

2010

1. Waite - 50
2. Eddie Betts - 40
3. Marc Murphy - 35
4. Bryce Gibbs - 30
5. Kade Simpson - 25
6. Ryan Houlihan - 25
7. Matthew Kreuzer - 25
8. Chris Judd - 25
9. Setanta - 25
10. Henderson - 20


In 2011 i'm expecting more from Henderson who i think will develop quite nicely!

In 2012..................Well the worlds gonna end anyway so who cares?? :wink:

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:19 am 
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Harry Vallence
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ryan2000 wrote:

In 2011 i'm expecting more from Henderson who i think will develop quite nicely!

In 2012..................Well the worlds gonna end anyway so who cares?? :wink:


The world's going to end in DECEMBER 2012. Der...

Some people...

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:36 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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fraser murphy wrote:
ryan2000 wrote:

In 2011 i'm expecting more from Henderson who i think will develop quite nicely!

In 2012..................Well the worlds gonna end anyway so who cares?? :wink:


The world's going to end in DECEMBER 2012. Der...

Some people...


COOL!

We win our 17th and then the world explodes thus making it impossible for Essendon* to overtake us!

:thumbsup:

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 1:15 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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1995 (premiers)
1. FF....Stephen Kernahan - 63
2. FP....Brad Pearce - 52
3. CHF...Earl Spalding - 34
4. HF.....Matt Clape - 31
5. C......Greg Williams - 29
6. RR.....Anthony Koutoufides - 22
7. FP.....Dean Rice - 21
8. C......Mil Hanna - 14

2001 (4th)
1. HF... Matthew Lappin - 49
2. CHF..Lance Whitnall - 37
3. RR....Anthony Koutoufides - 32
4. FP....Ryan Houlihan - 28
5. FF....Brendan Fevola - 27
6. HF... Adrian Hickmott - 22
7. C.....Brett Ratten - 21
8. C.....Scott Camporeale - 20

2009 (7th)
1. FF...Brendan Fevola - 89
2. FP...Eddie Betts - 38
3. R.....Marc Murphy - 31
4. C.....Bryce Gibbs - 15
5. C.....Kade Simpson - 15
6. HF...Ryan Houlihan - 13
7. R.....Matthew Kreuzer - 13
8. RR....Chris Judd - 12

2010 (?)
1. FF....Setanta - 40
2. FP....Betts - 30
3. CHF..Henderson - 40
4. HF....Houlihan - 25
5. HF....Yarran - 20
6. FP....Waite - 35
7. R......Kreuzer - 30
8. R......Murphy - 30

I don't know about this top 8 goalkickers kicking the equivalent of 266 goals being anything more than an indicator...an important one.

With players being thrown around more than a decade ago, I think it is what we get out of the player playing a particular position that counts most. You positioned to kick goals, so you're expected to kick goals.

These days, the HFF are moreso midfielders than traditional HFF. Nevertheless they are forwards.

So I expect the forward 6 (FF, FP, FP, CHF, HF, HF) to be settled and kicking goals.
I believe one of the FP's should provide a serious mismatch for the opposition with our rucks rotating through there (Warnock, Hampson & Kreuzer the bulk of the time...yes 3 ruckmen), and we have at least 3 mobile tall targets at all times (weather dependent). We have One of the ucks, Setanta, Henderson and Waite as the obvious choices for 2010.

We should be looking at the total goals teams in the top 4 kicked as the benchmark, then, the goals from their top 6 forwards and the goals kicked by midfielders and average that out per game.

I would prefer to have 6 forwards, 3 rucks and 7 midfielders (16) contributing to that benchmark tally, not the 266.

There's one striking fact and that is there needs to be a a key target with a 50- 60 goal a season goalkicker in the forwardline and the alternate avenue (other main forward) to kick around 40, and you'll find that in all the top 4 teams and the ones listed above....usually its the FF (Fev, Kerna) or CHF (J Brown, Spalding) or a HF (Lappin, Johnson) or FP (Pearce, Betts). These guys are the main target, unlike Carlton where Fev was the only target and as a result we missed/ wasted opportunities and became predictable with that strategy.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 1:21 pm 
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Nick Riewoldt 78
 Justin Koschitzke 48
 Stephen Milne 46
 Adam Schneider 34
 Andrew McQualter 22
 Nick Dal Santo 16
 Brendon Goddard 15
 Jason Gram 12
271

Cameron Mooney 46
 Steve Johnson 40
 Paul Chapman 37
 Tom Hawkins 34
 Shannon Byrnes 32
 Mathew Stokes 29
 Gary Ablett 27
 Max Rooke 24
269

Just for reference - 2009's better teams were perceived as being better defensive units by some way but still outscored our top 8 (if as per Bondiblue's post that is indeed the right metric).

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 9:26 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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The Blueseum wrote:
Nick Riewoldt 78
 Justin Koschitzke 48
 Stephen Milne 46
 Adam Schneider 34
 Andrew McQualter 22
 Nick Dal Santo 16
 Brendon Goddard 15
 Jason Gram 12
271

Cameron Mooney 46
 Steve Johnson 40
 Paul Chapman 37
 Tom Hawkins 34
 Shannon Byrnes 32
 Mathew Stokes 29
 Gary Ablett 27
 Max Rooke 24
269

Just for reference - 2009's better teams were perceived as being better defensive units by some way but still outscored our top 8 (if as per Bondiblue's post that is indeed the right metric).

From the Blueseum


WOW, that was quick. Thanks for the info.

I have no doubt that defensive pressure whether its from the back six, midfield or forwardline determines what score needs to be kicked to win. As Ratts said in his recent 1 on 1 interview, the less points we have kicked against us, the less goals we need to kick to get over the line.

The KPI's show that we have improved in both areas points for and against, so the trend is in the right direction. Fev really had nothing to do with the defensive improvement, but he did on the scores for.

It's obvious from the examples from the incomparable Bluseum that the spread of goal kickers to be up there is an obvious prerequisite for success, but also the avearage across the top 8 is much higher than I anticipated. Looking at Geelongs spread is what I would consider as our goal, whereas the more defensive StKilda have a reliance from there top 3 goalkickers to get them over the line. StKilda also created a VFL/AFL record for the lowest score against in a season, so that should also be factored in the equation.

Will we see something like the above 2 from Carlton in 2010?

1st Geelong: 46, 40, 37, 32, 29, 27, 24 = 269
2nd Saints : 78, 48, 46, 34, 22, 16, 15, 12 = 271

Give me Geelong's spread anyday (their forwards seem to have done their job across the board)

46 (Mooney)...CHF..Waite
40 (Johnson)...HF...Walker
37 (Chapman)..FP...Betts
34 (Hawkins)...FF...Henderson
32 (Byrnes).....FP...Setanta
29 (Stokes)....HF...Kreuzer
27 (Ablett).....M....Murphy
24 (Rooke).....HF...Judd

Interesting exercise. I tried to pick the most obvious goalkickers for Carlton and it seems I've found 5 talls, 2 more talls than Geelong use in their orwardline.
Sydney Blue said yesterday, we need lots of runners and avoid being too top heavy. He suggested that we don't play more than 2 talls in the forwardline. There's credence in that, but then again a horsed for courses policy should also be considered to suit the ground, weather or to stretch the opposition whilst not jeopardising balance.

I think it dependes on how often, and how we bring the ball into our forwardline, and what tactics we use to free up options. I'm sure we had more forward 50 entries than Geelong in 2009, so the supply should cntinue to be there in 2010 without Fev.

We really need to get the balance right. Perhaps players to be considered in our forwardline to create more balance will be the likes of Houlihan, Yarran, Robinson, Gibbs, Garlett and Simpson. Question is, can we extract more than 24 goals a piece from those guys? I think we can.

Lots of work to be done over the preseason. As Blue Vain once said drills drills and more drills will give the players confidence in what they are doing when they have and haven't got the ball.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 9:49 pm 
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All of a sudden Houlihan is being touted as one of the potential saviours down forward. Interesting that only a very few posters have consistently had him in thrir best 22 for about three years.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:48 am 
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Great posts bondi. One of the key factors there is that Betts, Murphy, Waite (and Fisher) have been the only Blues on our current list to have kicked 30 goals plus in a year (maybe add Judd) over the same era we've had the extremely dominant key forward. Big questions over whether Fish would be given the opportunity again to get near 39 goals that he managed in 2007 (?).

I have no doubt Waite could kick 50 if played permanently forward - on some opponents he could have kicked some big bags.

Murphy is an interesting one; can we honestly expect him to do better than 2009?

Will our midfield movements allow Judd to play forward a bit more (what did he kick in 2009 - 11 goals 19 or something like that?)

And then the final question - Betts. To me, particularly as 2009 progressed, Betts reverted back to the opportunist 10-12 stat a game forward pocket. A very good one, im not doubting that. But does this type of player work better (more goals) being in and around a dominant key forward, and will he have to change his game a lot more for a multi-prong forward line? Bottom line question - can we expect him to keep improving?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:52 am 
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molsey wrote:
Will our midfield movements allow Judd to play forward a bit more (what did he kick in 2009 - 11 goals 19 or something like that?)


http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... %3A+C+Judd

Judd has managed 29 goals twice in his career. Until this year he was keeping his average of one goal per game, but this year it dropped back a little.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:28 pm 
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The Blueseum wrote:
The Fevola - assessment thread has a quote from AIRCAV about the top 8 goalkickers kicking 20 goals. This led the user of the Blueseum ID (For today anyway) to have a look at the top 8 goalkickers for 2009 and compare to our last good year, 2001:

2001:
1. Matthew Lappin - 49
2. Lance Whitnall - 37
3. Anthony Koutoufides - 32
4. Ryan Houlihan - 28
5. Brendan Fevola - 27
6. Adrian Hickmott - 22
7. Brett Ratten - 21
8. Scott Camporeale - 20

2009:
1. Brendan Fevola - 89
2. Eddie Betts - 38
3. Marc Murphy - 31
=4. Bryce Gibbs - 15
=4. Kade Simpson - 15
=6. Ryan Houlihan - 13
=6. Matthew Kreuzer - 13
=8. Chris Judd - 12

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... al+leaders

Interestingly, the total goals kicked by the top 8 in both years both equal 226 goals, each from the top 8 performers. Good stat for those spruiking the benefits of the multi-prong forward line and highlighting that there doesn't need to be a loss of goalkicking.

From the Blueseum


Carrots, Setanta, Stevens and Garlett all kicked 12 goals too.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:34 pm 
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yibbida wrote:
The Blueseum wrote:
The Fevola - assessment thread has a quote from AIRCAV about the top 8 goalkickers kicking 20 goals. This led the user of the Blueseum ID (For today anyway) to have a look at the top 8 goalkickers for 2009 and compare to our last good year, 2001:

2001:
1. Matthew Lappin - 49
2. Lance Whitnall - 37
3. Anthony Koutoufides - 32
4. Ryan Houlihan - 28
5. Brendan Fevola - 27
6. Adrian Hickmott - 22
7. Brett Ratten - 21
8. Scott Camporeale - 20

2009:
1. Brendan Fevola - 89
2. Eddie Betts - 38
3. Marc Murphy - 31
=4. Bryce Gibbs - 15
=4. Kade Simpson - 15
=6. Ryan Houlihan - 13
=6. Matthew Kreuzer - 13
=8. Chris Judd - 12

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... al+leaders

Interestingly, the total goals kicked by the top 8 in both years both equal 226 goals, each from the top 8 performers. Good stat for those spruiking the benefits of the multi-prong forward line and highlighting that there doesn't need to be a loss of goalkicking.

From the Blueseum


Carrots, Setanta, Stevens and Garlett all kicked 12 goals too.


Indeed they did. If you look at goal averages from 2009:

Goals
1. Brendan Fevola - 3.87
2. Eddie Betts - 1.73
3. Marc Murphy - 1.35
4. Jeffery Garlett - 1.2
5. Brad Fisher - 1.14
6. Jarrad Waite - 1.11
7. Setanta Ó hAilpín - 1
=8. Andrew Carrazzo - .80
=8. Cameron Cloke - .80
10. Nick Stevens - .70

And remove Fevola and Stevens, you get 9.1 goals a game from the remaining players.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:37 am 
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Another point worth noting:

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... aying+List

The players that we've lost in the forward line bar Fev didn't add much at the end of the day:

Hartlett, 3 games, 0 goals
Edwards, Nil
Stevens, 17 games, 12 goals
Bentick, Nil
bentley, 5 games, 2 goals
Bannister, 2 games, 2 goals

Fevola, 23 games, 89 goals

Add to this the injuries / likely forward spots for improvement:

Setanta 12 games, 12 goals in 2009
Waite 9 games, 10 goals
Walker, 6 / 2

+ Garlett, Yarran playing more football in 2010...


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 8:52 pm 
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It goes to show that we do have goalkickers without Fev.

We have talls, mids, smalls and rucks who can chip in to kick winning scores week to week.

Waite
Setanta
Henderson

Houlihan
Judd
Walker
Carrazzo
Murphy
Gibbs
Simpson

Betts
Yarran
Garlett

Kreuzer
Hampson
Warnock

I think the MC have an easier jon in 2010 than they did in 2009. Top 4 for mine.

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