4 rounds in and we have the following (recognising some have played only 1 game):

Jeff Garlett - 3.0
Setanta - 2.5
Yarran - 1.75
Eddie Betts, Simpson - 1.5
Henderson - 1.25
Houlihan, Judd, Waite - 1

From the Blueseum

WOW, that was quick. Thanks for the info.

I have no doubt that defensive pressure whether its from the back six, midfield or forwardline determines what score needs to be kicked to win. As Ratts said in his recent 1 on 1 interview, the less points we have kicked against us, the less goals we need to kick to get over the line.

The KPI's show that we have improved in both areas points for and against, so the trend is in the right direction. Fev really had nothing to do with the defensive improvement, but he did on the scores for.

It's obvious from the examples from the incomparable Bluseum that the spread of goal kickers to be up there is an obvious prerequisite for success, but also the avearage across the top 8 is much higher than I anticipated. Looking at Geelongs spread is what I would consider as our goal, whereas the more defensive StKilda have a reliance from there top 3 goalkickers to get them over the line. StKilda also created a VFL/AFL record for the lowest score against in a season, so that should also be factored in the equation.

Will we see something like the above 2 from Carlton in 2010?

1st Geelong: 46, 40, 37, 32, 29, 27, 24 = 269
2nd Saints : 78, 48, 46, 34, 22, 16, 15, 12 = 271

Give me Geelong's spread anyday (their forwards seem to have done their job across the board)

46 (Mooney)...CHF..Waite
40 (Johnson)...HF...Walker
37 (Chapman)..FP...Betts
34 (Hawkins)...FF...Henderson
32 (Byrnes).....FP...Setanta
29 (Stokes)....HF...Kreuzer
27 (Ablett).....M....Murphy
24 (Rooke).....HF...Judd

Interesting exercise. I tried to pick the most obvious goalkickers for Carlton and it seems I've found 5 talls, 2 more talls than Geelong use in their orwardline.
Sydney Blue said yesterday, we need lots of runners and avoid being too top heavy. He suggested that we don't play more than 2 talls in the forwardline. There's credence in that, but then again a horsed for courses policy should also be considered to suit the ground, weather or to stretch the opposition whilst not jeopardising balance.

I think it dependes on how often, and how we bring the ball into our forwardline, and what tactics we use to free up options. I'm sure we had more forward 50 entries than Geelong in 2009, so the supply should cntinue to be there in 2010 without Fev.

We really need to get the balance right. Perhaps players to be considered in our forwardline to create more balance will be the likes of Houlihan, Yarran, Robinson, Gibbs, Garlett and Simpson. Question is, can we extract more than 24 goals a piece from those guys? I think we can.

Lots of work to be done over the preseason. As Blue Vain once said drills drills and more drills will give the players confidence in what they are doing when they have and haven't got the ball.

In all the quoted historical top 8's there are at most 2 "tall fwds" in each team's top 8.
Kouta was a tall mid who drifted fwd, which made him dangerous but he was not a dedicated tall fwd at the time.

To have Waite, Hendo, Setanta and MK in our top 8 goalkickers seems to go against how fwd structures have worked over recent times.

Current running rate on goal kicking for the full year looks like:
Setanta = 54
Betts = 50
Yarran = 38
Garlett = 35
Murphy = 28
Houlihan = 25
...Waite perhaps 30 +

exactly the sort of spread that leads to success. Give it to me any day vs Fev.

Another point worth noting:

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... aying+List

The players that we've lost in the forward line bar Fev didn't add much at the end of the day:

Hartlett, 3 games, 0 goals
Edwards, Nil
Stevens, 17 games, 12 goals
Bentick, Nil
bentley, 5 games, 2 goals
Bannister, 2 games, 2 goals

Fevola, 23 games, 89 goals

Add to this the injuries / likely forward spots for improvement:

Setanta 12 games, 12 goals in 2009
Waite 9 games, 10 goals
Walker, 6 / 2

+ Garlett, Yarran playing more football in 2010...

All of a sudden Houlihan is being touted as one of the potential saviours down forward. Interesting that only a very few posters have consistently had him in thrir best 22 for about three years.

Well at the end of the H&A we almost had our 6 Blues with 20 goals or more; our 6th player being Yarran with 19:

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... aying+List

Betts 42
Garlett 37
Waite 33
Setanta 26 (noting however he hasnt been preferred in the seniors for some time)
Henderson 23
Yarran 19

And just outside:
Murphy 18
Simpson 17
(Judd 14)

From the Blueseum

Well at the end of the H&A we almost had our 6 Blues with 20 goals or more; our 6th player being Yarran with 19:

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php? ... aying+List

Betts 42
Garlett 37
Waite 33
Setanta 26 (noting however he hasnt been preferred in the seniors for some time)
Henderson 23
Yarran 19

And just outside:
Murphy 18
Simpson 17
(Judd 14)

From the Blueseum

(Robinson 14)