This is just the skeleton of an article I am working on. If anyone would like to add anything to be included it would be much appreciated.

We all know that Key Position (KP) players are important to the fortunes of the team. In Carlton's case we have been without our number one Full Back and Centre Half Back for much of the season.

Just how important are KP players anyway?

The following table shows the percentage of games played by the five first pick KP players (FB, CHB, CHF, FF, R) for each team. As you can see if you structure it from most KP game down to least it gives a pretty good imitation of the current ladder. 3 of the top four are in the top four of the KP Ladder and 3 of the bottom four are in the bottom four of the KP Ladder. In fact 10 of the 16 ladder positions are within 2 places of each other.



The big exceptions are Hawthorn who is high up on the KP Ladder but still low on the actual ladder, this might be explained by a relatively poor playing list.

On the other hand StKilda appears very low in the KP Ladder but 9th on the real ladder, indicating perhaps that their playing list is very good, i.e. their non-KP players are making up for the KP players absence.

Thanks to the halford for help with this.

What does this mean?

Are KP really that important?

Would love to hear opinions which may help pad out a nice article for the CFC site.

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Don't think we're down the bottom because we're missing a dud backman.

Amazing correlation really.

Would be nice to see it alongside games missed by best 22 and by regular midfield rotation 9say 8-9 players).

I wonder if anyone could complie such a comparison....

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...... I think they call it depth.

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As has been noted elsewhere, its not so much that Livo and Tbird are the league's best CHB and FB or not, but having those guys in the line up allows us to "structure up" much better. All of a sudden the pressure is slightly relieved from guys like Teague who can now pick on someone his own size and Lance can create in the F50.

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and campo/lance get a run for their monies with all the Livo bashers!

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

but we're currently first on a little known thing called the "KY Ladder". I'll let you all work out how it's calculated...

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Good analysis Jarusa. It would be interesting if you could add a '3 key midfielders' argument as well - whats the correlation of wins if you've got your spine and your best 3 middies. Perhaps a part 2?

I think in your article you could actually show some sympathy for Bombers and Pies fans who are in the same situation as us. COmment on coming back frmo injury for some big men is pretty hard too.

I think the Hawks are more to do with form/passion, which they are now playing with. The team we played is a bit different to the guys that wallped the Dockers, they were magnificent, a fast running midfield.

i think everyone knows how i feel about this issue.

KP are the most vital.

The dont have to be the best players in the league for them to be super important for team structure.

But take out 2 KP players, like ourselves and collingwood have had for much of the season and you team struggles.

its a fact

and thanks to jarusa - the stats prove exactly what i am talking about.

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Got to love the stare Down by Setanta on Llyod

An interesting post it gets you wondering . another interseting fact is the Coaching Ladder.
1 Flag for the top 12 postions on the ladder
13 flags for the bottom 4 positions on the ladder
Is it the changing of the gaurd or has their past success finally caught up with them .

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I think you multiply the angle your chest makes with the floor by the height of the table you're bent over, right?

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Congratulations CK95

Bluehammer - correct!

btw, love the signature..

"Think once, think twice, think don't drive your car on the pavement.."

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hahahaha nice get Stretford.

"And this...cricket bat, with a freeze block nailed to it...

is your car. "

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Congratulations CK95

give me a spine and i'll give you a cup!

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

You want opinions? Ok. I think it's nice effort, but I also think how you present data is just as important as what's in it. It's only a nice little statstical correlation because you've got them arranged by decending order of time KPP have played. The eye is drawn to that and you dont't pay too much attention to the third column which is all over the shop.

You should really ordered it by Ladder position, group it up by how many competition points they've actual won, with the KPP% as the third column.

It doesn't look anywhere near as clear cut then. You'll find you've got teams like Melbourne, Adeliade and Sydney who have had their "first choice" KPP play 10% more game time than us for 50% more competition points. And Port and Hawthorn who had them for 20% more game time for negligible more competition points.

Personally, I think all it really shows is that Collingwood and Carlton have the least depth, Port has no excuses for where they are, West Coast and Geelong with no injuries KPP are more consistent than St Kilda with injured KKP, and Danny Frawley was a crap coach. There's not really any suprises in there I don't think.

You've obviously also made assumptions about who a teams starting 5 are which is very clear cut for some teams and arguably less so for others. For example, I've heard opposite fans make all kinds of stupid claims about who is a KKP for the Blues (let alone a first choice one) simply because they're not as familiar with our list .... and not even Kevin Sheedy knows who Essendon*'s first choice ruckman is

I'm not questioning your football knowledged, but these assumption may or may not have effected your %s in a statstically meaningful way so you might want to consider listing those players you used in an appendix to your article so that people can decide for theselves whether your assumptions were valid.

you also have to confirm what positions we are talking about as well.

i would consider the spine to be the KP.

Full Forward
Centre Half Forward
Centre/Ruck?
Centre Half Back
Full Back

i think its debatable whether the spine consists of a Ruckmen or an on baller. I would tend to think the the Ruckman is more important to the teams structure than lets say a on-baller.

so i would suggest

Carlton
Full Forward - Brendon Fevola
Centre Half Forward - Lance Whintall
Ruck - Barnaby French
Centre Half Back - Bret Thorton
Full Back - Luke Livingston

Collingwood
Full Forward - Chris Tarrant
Centre Half Forward - Anthony Rocca
Ruck - Josh Fraser
Centre Half Back - James Clement
Full Back - Shane Wakelin

Essendon*
Full Forward - Matthew Llyod
Centre Half Forward - James Hird
Ruck - Matthew Allen
Centre Half Back - Scott Lucas
Full Back - Dustin Fletcher

Brisbane
Full Forward - ??
Centre Half Forward - Jonathon Brown
Ruck - ??
Centre Half Back - Chris Scott
Full Back - Mal Micheal

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but jarusa - i would be very keen for you to work out these details and lets us know how it all pans out.

IMO - i think as i have stated as well, these are the positions that are very very hard to cover regardless of the depth of your squad.

And IMO i dont think its any coincidence that Collingwood, Essendon*, Carlton and Brisbane are all bottom 4 considering the injuries the teams have all had to their "spine"

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Well, I provided the list for Jarusa, and yes, there were a few that I wasn't sure about. I think I said Hille was Essendon*'s best ruckman, but if it's Allan, the percentages won't change all that much anyway.

Prez, I had a few different ones to your choices there - said Kepler Bradley was Essendon*'s CHB and Lucas the CHF, said Presti and Wakelin were the KP defenders for Collingwood instead of Clement and Wakelin - but it's immaterial. These sorts of things can be debated until the cows come home. I'd almost guarantee that not one person here would have exactly the same view on what I think each team's spine is.

Jarusa, it's a good start, but I'd like to see which parts of the spine have been most missing. I mean Collingwood has lost its ruckman and CHF for the majority, and we've lost the key defenders. Perhaps something along the lines of splitting up the spine would be interesting as well.

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Thanks everyone some great suggestions. Keep them coming.

For those interested in the KP players chosen, the halford's list can be found here: http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB2/vi ... 2526#52526



I used that pretty much exactly, except for maybe one or two differences.

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And how about a gigantic matirix showing what KPPs each team was missing when they played each other and what the result was!!!

Or if you want to go for bonus points, showing which games clubs elected to play KKP out of position (like say Whitnall at CHB) even though it stuffed their structue even more than being short a KPP in the first place.

Gee we're not very demanding are we