This is less a reaction to last night, and more a comment on my observations this year and in particular in recent weeks sitting very close to the fence watching the team up close.
LOCK INS
Judd
Fevola
Waite
Thornton
Murphy
Simpson
Betts
Walker - injuries aside, I think he showed enough last year to indicate he is on the cusp of really stepping up - injuries though are a huge concern
Gibbs
Bower
Russell - I really think he is making progress. Not all players make the grade overnight, some take time. He only had 15 last night but I thought he played well. Also is quick, hard, and can grab it competently overhead now.
Houlihan - have been a critic of Ryan’s over the journey, however he has shown in recent times he has improved his ability to win the ball in the clinches and as we all know he is also a good kick (and that alone puts him ahead of a lot of others on our list). Was one of our better players in our last two games, and if you looked at the game closely last night you would conclude without a doubt Ryan is comfortably ahead of a number of players at the club.
Joseph - good little defender/tagger. Still just a pup so will improve. Gives his all and has real pace and I like it how he takes the game on and runs it out of defence - it’s uplifting for the team when he does this. AJ is a lock-in fo sho.
Setanta - I think he has shown enough to suggest he is a player for the future. Was lively as a forward for a few weeks straight, and also brings versatility. Our Paul Dear.
Kreuzer
Grigg - hasn’t gone on with it as much as we would have hoped after 2008, but has had injuries and I am confident enough he has enough tools to make the grade in time
Jamison - hasn’t had a terrific year but I think he is a good defender and is still only young, and he seems to be important for our structure
MAYBE/MAYBE NOT
Carrazzo - I might be overreacting to one bad night, but it’s clear he cannot be used down back or in midfield, because his kicking is a liability. This is why they usually use him as a defensive forward - because at least up there his poor kicking doesn’t hurt the team so much, and ironically he is a useful snap at goal. But the MC mucked up last night putting him on-ball. While he is a ball magnet, he is also still clearly unreliable by foot. Most weeks I look at the stats his % Eff is comparatively low. It happens more times than not. So statistically there is an argument for having concern about carrots long term. I Haven’t put him in the NOT UP TO IT or CAREER AT THE CROSS ROADS sections, because I think he could have a future as a defensive forward. But with the same token I am not prepared to slot him into the LOCK INS group simply bec if he has more games like last night where his usage is of huge detriment to the team, he will be out the door quicker thn speedy gonzalez.
Hampson - This one will surely cause much debate. His athleticism is exceptional. And I know he is still new to the game. But geeez, this guy fumbles a lot, and his kicking is still a looooong way off. These issues might be fixed over time, and I sure hope they will be, but right now I think it is impossible to say he is a LOCK IN, because he has such a long way to go with his skills.
Browne - tries hard but his usage has a serious question mark on it, so right now for me he is a 50/50 proposition. Would be a depth player at best.
Anderson - plays tight and can really lay a hard tackle, but kicking a huge worry
Armfield - a bit like Browne, he tries his guts out but his usage is a worry. Can turn it over by hand under pressure and we all know he sometimes muffs his kicks on the run. Still young though
Jacobs - not an athletic type like Hampson or Kruezer, but did OK early in the year so is a 50/50 to be a decent back-up, meat-n-potatoes ruck.
Warnock - I have him slotted in here simply because he has been incredibly injury prone so there’s no guarantees with him
Austin - is going close to being in the top category, but probably not quite there yet. Probably will be in that group by season’s end or early next year. I hope so anyhow.
CAREER AT THE CROSS ROADS
Wiggins - was looking good early this year as a lead up CHF, but then fell away badly and then we were reminded of his failing body. A fit Chief could have been handy last night, so that alone means he escapes the NOT UP TO IT tag, but geez, it’s only just, and I don’t hold much hope for him. It’s just that we have been writing him off for 9 years but he keeps surprising, so for me he has one more little life left.
Stevens - it’s no secret he has fitness issues. I think it’s fair to say that is inexcusable for a Vice Captain. Leopards don’t change their spots - unless he can turn it around 100% and convince the coach 100%, he should be traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder, whatever we can get for him.
Scotland - disposal has lacked hurt factor all year. Shadow of the player he once was. I know he missed the pre-season, but not sure that excuses everything as far as Scotto is concerned. 32 touches means nothing if you don't actually hurt the opp.
NOT UP TO IT
Fisher - can still take a grab, but sadly that’s where it starts and ends. No longer a genuine threat up forward, and too slow by foot and in the modern game you can’t carry forwards who can’t chase and mow down players.
Bentick
Hartlett - Wow, how disappointing has this guy been??!! Absolute passenger. Non event. I’ll be staggered if he gets a game next week.
Hadley - I think he has had enough time now, and it’s clear he just can’t cover the ground quick enough. Sad but true.
Bannister - hard toiler but just not up to it
Johnson - this is a big call but I just think he is not good enough. He goes OK, but the bottom line is Riley said pre-season Johno has been round the traps a while now and needs to step up, and while he has had injury problems this year, I think I have seen enough of him to conclude he is not great one-on-one (a Simpson, for example is far more desperate one-on-one) and for a guy who was apparently recruited for his kicking, he shanks it and turns it over too much for my liking. I actually think it’s not just about kicking action. I think he is a lovely kick, but I think when under pressure he doesn’t have the poise and this is where a lot of his errors stem from. So, from what I have seen, he is just not up to it.
Edwards - just hasn’t done enough and now they are playing him down back which isn’t a good omen
Cloke - too slow by foot and also in terms of reaction times
UNKNOWN KIDS
O’Keefe
Tiller
Yarran - Some might slot him into a more positive category because he is a high pick, but I just think he is very young and hasn’t shown a great deal so it’s a bit early to confidently conclude he will make it because he could just as easily be one of those naturally gifted types who doesn’t end up getting enough of it for one reason or another. Will probably make it because he has skill, but it’s too early to be sure of it IMO.
Robinson - a bit like Yarran. Neither have really had startling debut years, so I just think unless a kid jumps out of the blocks you can’t be really sure they will make it. Both probably will. But until they show some consistency, I don’t think you can label them as guarantees.
All of this gives me 17 lock ins. Which means we need at least another 5 players to come-on or be brought into the club in the off season (and obviously more to counter injuries which are inevitable). We can all sit back and say Hammer is a player and so is Yarran etc etc, but until they start to put consecutive ‘error free’ games together, they are no lock in.
Judd
Fevola
Waite
Thornton
Murphy
Simpson
Betts
Walker
Gibbs
Bower
Russell
Houlihan
Joseph
Setanta
Kreuzer
Grigg
Jamison
Slotted into a team structure it gives us…
B Thornton, Jamison, Joseph
HB Waite, Bower, Russell
C Simpson, Gibbs, Grigg
FOLL Kruezer, Judd, Murphy
HF Houlihan, Setanta, ………….
F Betts, Fevola, Walker
Obviously the positions I have put players into above are subject to change. A Kruezer could end up forward if a Warnock gets injury free and finds form. But the point of this thread was to show where we’re at NOW, what players are lock ins. Some of you might query Russell and Houlihan, but geez, from where I sat close to the fence the last few weeks, Houlihan has been good in close, and is a top 2% kick, and Russell has been good and keeps getting better, albeit slowly but nonetheless he is getting there. Carlton fans sitting near me close to the fence last night were full of praise for the way JR went about his business last night.
I think most Premiership teams have a lot of luck with injuries, and usually have about 24-26 players who can do the job for the team on any given day, maybe with a few so-so types who get made to look good in a great team. So based on that, we need to find another 7 or so players who can be slotted into the LOCK INS group. Some will come from outside the club, but most will probably have to come from within the current list. It’s the Warnocks and Hampsons and Yarrans and Austins and Robinsons etc who need to step up.
Comparing us to Collingwood, who have more experience and it showed last night with their poise, let's hope a Yarran or even a Walker can become that X Factor up fwd, like Leon Davis. That's something we need, to make us more multi dimensional up fwd.
And let's hope over time Kruezer develops into a good fwd.
And let's hope we get better at clearances. We got hammered early last night in the guts. And too often we rely on Judd to get the ball.
And we probably need another Class A running half back. Waite maybe to do that when he gets back. But I think Johno was recruited for that and he hasn't delivered so it's back to the drawing board.
And obviously we need the young rucks to deliver.
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. Its politics, not everyone sees eye to eye on such matters.