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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:02 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 23030
Location: Bondi Beach
Before we take on this challenge against the Saints it would be great to reflect again on the season at the half way mark.

We are sitting in 4th spot with the 3rd best percentage.

I jotted down some stats from AFL Teams on Fox tonight to share with you.

Carlton has the 3rd least numbers of turnovers resulting in scores against. That's great!

We have conceded 81 goals and 69 points from turnovers....but the news is not that as bad as it looks if you look deeper...and if we can improve just a little more in that area, I believe the tables will turn and we'll win a few of the close ones in the next 12 rounds; thanks to our improvement in our defense.

Team Goals Behinds Total

1. Saints 63 50 428
2. Cats 75 55 499
3. Blues 81 64 550
4. Lions 81 67 553
5. Swans 84 67 571
6. Hawk 83 74 577
7. Adel 86 61 577
8. Coll 85 75 585

The rest totals only

Ess 633
Port 679
WCE 680
NthM 688
Freo 721
WB 733
Melb 737
Rich 796

You can read what yoo want. Give us your slant.

My slant on it is:

The back 6 have held there own (contributing to our 117%)
They are making less errors
The midfield is supporting them better
The ball is in good hands taking the ball out and delivering well
The ball in the hands of the better exponents of disposals.
The rucks have stopped the bleeding in the tap outs

We have good developing bona fide defenders and good depth and we're getting games into them.

Defenders contributing this year:

Talls Jamison Thornton Bower Waite ...Austin Setanta (with Hartlett developing)
Smalls Armfield Browne Joseph Scotland Carrazzo ( till injured Johnson)
Midfield Judd Murphy Gibbs Grigg Stevens Simpson (with Walker to come in)
Forwards Betts Garlett Houlihan


All of the above have ventured into the defense with good effect. Some mids like Stevens and Simmo (as would Grigg) have played as attacking HB as well.
The forwards mentioned have played up to the defensive wings and the stats support that.

The rucks have also played a role in defense. Kreuzer Hampson (till injured Jacobs )

We have achieved some really good stats at the half way make to support the fact we have made huge improvement in all areas in 2009.

I reckon the ruck work has improved most of all and its flow on effect should not be underestimated (and we have Warnock and Jacobs coming back to let us release Kreuzer and Hammer forward). Naturally all the kids have taken another step forward in their development.

It's the depth we have which is really exciting me. In fact I believe we'll learn to and have learned to cover for injuries to Waite, Walker, Jacobs, Warnock. We are young and developing and expected to start peaking at 2011 onwards. But the news right now, half way in 2009 is really good which says a lot about our list (not just the 3 No 1 draftees).

We also have a coach who is learning a lot more about list, his plans and his match day executions.

The improvements in the midfield have allowed the coach to rotate them better than ever, and Bettsy, Yarran, Robinson and maybe even Garlett will develop their engines to run through the middle too in the future.

It's incredible that at the half way mark we are 3rd in so many aspects of the game behind the undefeated Cats and Saints and sitting at 4th on the ladder with the 3rd best percentage.

We have also lost 2 games by less than a goal and another 2 games by a couple of kicks. We're learning on every line, and the team is moulding slowly but surely.

Against that backdrop we should look at the defense with a lot of hope and we must accept the improvement of all our defenders and our defensive game...and I'm sure Ratts and the team are going to get better.

Good luck against the Saints tomorrow. We have a good chance to go 7-5 after round 12.

Discuss

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:12 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Sun May 22, 2005 11:58 pm
Posts: 4058
Location: South Yarra
bondiblue wrote:
Before we take on this challenge against the Saints it would be great to reflect again on the season at the half way mark.

We are sitting in 4th spot with the 3rd best percentage.

I jotted down some stats from AFL Teams on Fox tonight to share with you.

Carlton has the 3rd least numbers of turnovers resulting in scores against. That's great!

We have conceded 81 goals and 69 points from turnovers....but the news is not that as bad as it looks if you look deeper...and if we can improve just a little more in that area, I believe the tables will turn and we'll win a few of the close ones in the next 12 rounds; thanks to our improvement in our defense.

Team Goals Behinds Total

1. Saints 63 50 428
2. Cats 75 55 499
3. Blues 81 64 550
4. Lions 81 67 553
5. Swans 84 67 571
6. Hawk 83 74 577
7. Adel 86 61 577
8. Coll 85 75 585

The rest totals only

Ess 633
Port 679
WCE 680
NthM 688
Freo 721
WB 733
Melb 737
Rich 796

You can read what yoo want. Give us your slant.

My slant on it is:

The back 6 have held there own (contributing to our 117%)
They are making less errors
The midfield is supporting them better
The ball is in good hands taking the ball out and delivering well
The ball in the hands of the better exponents of disposals.
The rucks have stopped the bleeding in the tap outs

We have good developing bona fide defenders and good depth and we're getting games into them.

Defenders contributing this year:

Talls Jamison Thornton Bower Waite ...Austin Setanta (with Hartlett developing)
Smalls Armfield Browne Joseph Scotland Carrazzo ( till injured Johnson)
Midfield Judd Murphy Gibbs Grigg Stevens Simpson (with Walker to come in)
Forwards Betts Garlett Houlihan


All of the above have ventured into the defense with good effect. Some mids like Stevens and Simmo (as would Grigg) have played as attacking HB as well.
The forwards mentioned have played up to the defensive wings and the stats support that.

The rucks have also played a role in defense. Kreuzer Hampson (till injured Jacobs )

We have achieved some really good stats at the half way make to support the fact we have made huge improvement in all areas in 2009.

I reckon the ruck work has improved most of all and its flow on effect should not be underestimated (and we have Warnock and Jacobs coming back to let us release Kreuzer and Hammer forward). Naturally all the kids have taken another step forward in their development.

It's the depth we have which is really exciting me. In fact I believe we'll learn to and have learned to cover for injuries to Waite, Walker, Jacobs, Warnock. We are young and developing and expected to start peaking at 2011 onwards. But the news right now, half way in 2009 is really good which says a lot about our list (not just the 3 No 1 draftees).

We also have a coach who is learning a lot more about list, his plans and his match day executions.

The improvements in the midfield have allowed the coach to rotate them better than ever, and Bettsy, Yarran, Robinson and maybe even Garlett will develop their engines to run through the middle too in the future.

It's incredible that at the half way mark we are 3rd in so many aspects of the game behind the undefeated Cats and Saints and sitting at 4th on the ladder with the 3rd best percentage.

We have also lost 2 games by less than a goal and another 2 games by a couple of kicks. We're learning on every line, and the team is moulding slowly but surely.

Against that backdrop we should look at the defense with a lot of hope and we must accept the improvement of all our defenders and our defensive game...and I'm sure Ratts and the team are going to get better.

Good luck against the Saints tomorrow. We have a good chance to go 7-5 after round 12.

Discuss


good post.

We have improved, but a couple of comments

Scores from turnovers might be a misleading indicator of defensive performance. Firstly, you need to know how many turnovers teams commit, where they're committed, then you need to take into account the style of play across the ground - do midfielders overcommit and get caught out on the rebound, or do they hold the structure?

I like the mix in the backline with Armfield being a key. If he can play like last week and still give us some run while being a stalwart defender then along with Browne Scotland and Joseph we have a reasonable mix of smaller backs, which complements our mobil-ish tall backs.

We can come up with all kinds of reasons why we're a legitimate top 4 team, but we'll know by rnd 22. Carlton is on the right track, but in reality, we'd be one of the weakest rnd 11 4th placed teams in recent times.

I can't wait for tomorrow's game. I think we'll learn heaps about how good we are or aren't, and there will be less room for speculation about "where we're at". We've been ok, but i can't help but feel we're flattered by our ladder position and percentage.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:33 pm 
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Robert Walls

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:44 am
Posts: 3136
bondiblue wrote:
It's incredible that at the half way mark we are 3rd in so many aspects of the game behind the undefeated Cats and Saints and sitting at 4th on the ladder with the 3rd best percentage.

We have also lost 2 games by less than a goal and another 2 games by a couple of kicks. We're learning on every line, and the team is moulding slowly but surely.



Were it not for simple errors (that will be reduced as the group gains experience), we would should be 3rd. We'd only have needed to win 1 of those close games...

Consider the following...

Interrupted seasons of the following 'top' liners
Fev (heel/buttock impeding performance)
stevens (2 games suspension)
walker (unsighted due to injury)
warnock (unsighted due to injury)
carazzo (missed 8 games due to injury/fitness issues)
scotland (missed 4 games due to injury/fitness isues)
waite (missed 2 games due to injury, out for season)
wiggins (missed 4 games due to injury/fitness)
grigg (missed 8 games due to injury/fitness)
jamison (missed 2 games due to injury/fitness)
fisher (largely unsighted due to injury/fitness)

In previous years had we had such an injury list 1/2way through the season, we would be nowhere near the top 4, and more likely around the bottom of the ladder

Then take into account that we have put a significant investment in kids this year - we've invested 51 games into our 'youngsters' (defined as those who started the season with under 20 games of experience) ie hampson, austin, browne, armfield, joseph, jacobs, yarran, gartlett, robinson.

We've also managed to squeeze another 40 games into our 'veteren' kids (defined as sub 33 games ie 1 1/2 seasons experience)...
kreuzer - 20 career games prior to 09
bower - 24 career games prior to 09
grigg - 25 career games prior to 09
jamison - 21 career games prior to 09
johnson - 31 career games prior to 09
bentley - 21 career games prior to 09

Thats 91 games into players that had under 33 games experience prior to the 09 season.

In other words, each week we have had at least 8 players with under a year and a half of senior football in them playing in our first 22 (actual figure is 37.6% of potential games played)

Yet despite the extensive injury list+the number of kids being played and a developing/shit coach, we are 4th on the ladder (statistically 3rd in most categories).

Makes you wonder why there have been so many wrist slashing posts on these boards sometimes :)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:56 pm 
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Robert Walls

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:44 am
Posts: 3136
btw as a comparison

saints have put 48 games into kids (sub 1 1/2 season experience prior to 09) - mcevoy, jones, gwilt, geary, eddy, dawson. Jones is 25, mcevoy is just under 20, the others are 21-23 (by the end of 09)

cats have put 40 games into 'kids' - djeurkka, gamble, hawkins, hogan, lonergan, mumford, taylor. Lonergan is 25, the others are generally 21-23 (by the end of 09)

dogs have put 72 games into 'kids' - addison, callan, everitt, grant, harbrow, higgins, hill, picken, stack, tiller, ward, wight, williams.
Callan is 25, ward, hill, grant will be 20ish by seasons end, others 21-23 range


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 12:09 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Sun May 22, 2005 11:58 pm
Posts: 4058
Location: South Yarra
4thchicken wrote:
btw as a comparison

saints have put 48 games into kids (sub 1 1/2 season experience prior to 09) - mcevoy, jones, gwilt, geary, eddy, dawson. Jones is 25, mcevoy is just under 20, the others are 21-23 (by the end of 09)

cats have put 40 games into 'kids' - djeurkka, gamble, hawkins, hogan, lonergan, mumford, taylor. Lonergan is 25, the others are generally 21-23 (by the end of 09)

dogs have put 72 games into 'kids' - addison, callan, everitt, grant, harbrow, higgins, hill, picken, stack, tiller, ward, wight, williams.
Callan is 25, ward, hill, grant will be 20ish by seasons end, others 21-23 range


You're eithrer contending or rebuilding (unless you're Hawthorn :mad: or Richmond :lol: ). the top 3 are all contending- most of the rest are rebuilding, including us.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 8:34 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 23030
Location: Bondi Beach
This week are defense was further weakened when we had Thornton out with a hamstring to join fellow tall Waite who is out for the year.

Austin is the last minute replacement for Thornton.

So how was the defense going to fair against the Top of the Table undefeated Saints with their twin towers and plethora of genuine forwards.

The defense was again fantastic to keep the Saints to 16.8

Bower had the game's superstar Reiwoldt. Whilst Reiwwoldt scored 5 goals, mostly from hard leading in the open and good passes from his midfield, Bower really exploited him the other way. Bower is brilliant at breaking the limes.

Add Austin and all of the sudden we have some genuine pace back there. I couldn't believe the burst of pace Aussie showed.

Jamison's spoiling is a master class. He blanketed on inform Kozi and used his body well to nudge him out of contests. Like the other tall defenders Jamo found space to help break the lines. His disposal was really good this week.

These tall blokes with the support of Scotland, Armfield and Browne were a class act. What happened to Milne and Scneifer? It was like Mr Freeze got to them and froze them motionless.

That was the best game I'd seen Browne play. My jaw dropped at some of the things he did last night. Yes, CJ69 and other Browne fans, Browne is the real deal; I'm convinced.

This defensive group will be compared with some of our great past defensive combinations.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 9:51 am 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 9:29 am
Posts: 6418
Location: Casa Da Carlton - The Place to Be
good posts guys, and i agree, which is why i have been perplexed at some of the comments on this board the last few weeks.

all year we have been up there in the stats.

really, with a little more experience in the side, a little more composure, we could easily be sitting on the ladder in third, with 10 wins, 2 loses.

bombers by 4
hawthorn by 4
fremantle by 7
saints by

a little bit more composure, a little bit more experience, and we could very easily have won all four of those games. Our away form is a little bit of a concern, but that is to be expected considering the youth of our side, and history showing that youth doesnt travel well.

in someone i think its actually better that we have dropped some points, if we where sitting 10w/2L there would be alot of talk about our side, as it is there is a little, but not as much if we where 10/2, and for us as the developing side that we are, we are positioned about right for us.

hehe, its fair to say, i have been very happy this year with what we have done, with the exception of the adelaide game, for the first time in a long time, we can talk of making finals, and it not be based on nothing bt hope. we should make finals, and we should continue to improve, and thats the kicker for me.


we are competing with the best and holding our own, yet we are far from the best of our ability, we are only going to continue to improve IMO, can the same be said about a side like the saints? not IMO, they are playing near their best football, yet we are nowhere near it :)

good times ahead for the blue boys, bad times ahead for everyone else.

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