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Season Half Full
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Author:  Jarusa [ Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Season Half Full
Following on from Our Odds for the Top Four after round five it is now time for another look halfway through the season.

Seeing as we are in the top four after eleven rounds I thought I would have a look at how many teams manage to hang on to a top four place to the and of the season after being there in round 11. Based on the last ten years our odds at the moment are:

To make the Eight:

85%
(was 73% in round 5)

To make the top Four:

62%
(was 40% in round 5)

More here: http://www.navyblueblog.com/archives/160

The very unusual even grouping of teams on 5 or 6 wins means that this analysis might get blown out of the water because the margin for error this year is much smaller than in years past.

But I prefer my season's half full. :cool:
Author:  ThisIsWhoWeAre [ Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
if we finish top 6 i will blubber like a little girl.
Author:  DesEnglish [ Mon Jun 08, 2009 9:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
I almost cant believe that we can make the finals....it just seems unthinkable given what we've been through. I look at the development in players like Bower, Murphy, Kreuzer and the emergence of Hammer and AJ and cant help but get a little movement in my pants :oops:
If we can beat the Bombers and Freo which are 50/50 games based on earlier results and win the games we should against Melbourne and North we're just about there....fingers crossed and go Blues!!!
Author:  Jarusa [ Mon Jun 08, 2009 9:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
I think it will take a while to sink in that we are actually pretty good.

Lots of supporters are just so used to the team being crap for so long it is going to take a while to break out of the negative mindset. I think TC is a bit of a reflection of that.

If you just look at the raw numbers, over the last 10 years, of the 40 teams who have been in the top 4 at the end of round eleven, 38 have gone on to play finals.

That's a 95% chance of finals.

Yeah, yeah, we can still miss, but it is looking good based on history.
Author:  SA Blue [ Mon Jun 08, 2009 9:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
11 wins and a good % will get us in. That is 5 wins in the second half with a very reasonable draw. Our aim should be top 6 to pretty much ensure a Melbourne based final.
Author:  4thchicken [ Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
we have the luxury of an additional 'free win' due to our high %. Effectively we are 7wins/5 losses from 11 matches :)
Author:  Humpers [ Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
SA Blue wrote:
11 wins and a good % will get us in. That is 5 wins in the second half

Yep - the St Kilda and Geelong matches are important in that we can't afford to be lose by too much in order to maintain our strong %.
Similarly we need to give Melbourne a good flogging.
Author:  House [ Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Season Half Full
Humpers wrote:
SA Blue wrote:
11 wins and a good % will get us in. That is 5 wins in the second half

Yep - the St Kilda and Geelong matches are important in that we can't afford to be lose by too much in order to maintain our strong %.
Similarly we need to give Melbourne a good flogging.


Agree the Saints game is important - when we win it, we'll send shockwaves through the game -and people will know we can beat anyone!
I can't wait till everyone expects to win every game - I'm sure the players expect to win every game - the supporters owe the club the same expectation!!
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