Ok so last year was a shambles, I turned 30 the same day Hawthorn flogged us by 100pts and the Club went down like cough medicine (Sorry had to clean it up a bit
).
Anyway all the rage the week before the game was Carlton had arrived, the two up and coming young gun teams were emerging, the game had reached blockbuster proportions, rumours flying around Buddy wouldn't play, he didn't and bang, we ended up smelling like pooh.
Big game syndrome had hit Carlton a few times this year and we have failed miserably, except against Collingwood
Player Stats:
Blues: Carrots (30p, 19h, 7cle), Fev (3g), Simmo (26p), Bentick (10t)
Hawks: Sewell (33p, 5cle, 7cp, 9t), Hodge (29p, 20k, 4g, 7t, 5cle), Mitchell (26p, 9i50, 4cle), Ladson (3g), Boyle (3g), Croad (3g), roughead (5g, 9m)
Team Stats:
- Hawks had 70 more disposals
- Hawks had 13.5 disposals per goal
- Hawks had 8.3 disposals per scoring shot
- Hawks won the hitouts 50 to 21
- Hawks won inside 50 60 to 35
- Carlton had a 20.3% disposal error rate
- Hawks had 16 bounces to 4
Intresting that Fev kicked 3 goals from 35 Carlton inside 50's, so tonight if we can get around 70 inside 50's that could mean around 6 goals to Fev
I've heard a rumour that Keiran Perkins has been in Fev's ear this week.
Team Changes:
Blues
In - Anderson, Grigg, Bower, Stevens, Judd, Kreuzer, Cloke, Armfield, Hampson
Out - Ackland, Blackwell, Bannister, Carlos, Whitnall, Saddington, Lappin, Kouta, Wiggins
Hawks
In - Franklin, Renouf, Williams, Rioli, Dew, Murphy, Stokes
Out - Smith, Crawford, Jacobs, Boyle, Taylor, McGlynn, Ellis
Tonight's Matchups:
Waite vs Franklin
Bower vs Roughead
Croad vs Fev
Anderson vs Rioli
Sewell vs Judd
Bentick vs Mitchell
Gibbs vs Hodge
Armfield vs Bateman
The key is stopping the run of the Hawks, if we let them run they will kill us, Bateman is generally the barometer in this department so somoene needs to be given the job, my first choice would be Army who has the pace and intensity to match him.
Inside the packs Campbell will feed Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis and Sewell at a rapid rate, Benchy has a huge job tonight, he had been smashed against the quality centreman head to head when we have needed him most.
Stevo will be probably be let loose again, if Young is his man we could be in trouble as Young has the penetration in his kicking to hurt us, unless Stevo does the hard yards both ways.
Birchall, Guerra, Dew, Young, Ladson all like to play loose, so putting my kick it to Fev game plan aside, we need to use these boys opponents in our F50, if we do that the Hawks players will tighten up and the game will start to be played on our terms man on man.
The zone defense of Hawthorn can be beaten as Richmond showed. If our foot skills are up to it we need to chip and put around it , force the Hawks to man up and come to us, then run in numbers through it. I'd implement the pick 'n' roll play across half forward, hit the lead up target, run past for the handball and shoot.
I haven't mentioned Buddy yet
lets hope Waitey is on or it could get ugly, second in line would be Bower who should start on Roughead with T-Bird taking Williams.
I'm lookng forward to the game, I'm hoping it will be a real hard battle, finals type game. We should treat this game like a final as it will give our boys a great deal of experience heading into next year, especially if we can get a win on the board.
My Tip is the Hawks by 33pts. Only because we will have the 2nd or 3rd quarter lapse that hurts us every week.
