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Round 7 - A Fascinating Stat
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Author:  DownUnderChick [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Round 7 - A Fascinating Stat
Interesting stat came up last on On The Couch about Round 7 and how the top 8 since 2004, has only charged once or twice by the end of the H&A season.

The stats were as follows:

2004 - 1 change
2005 - 1 change
2006 - 2 changes
2007 - 1 change
2008 - 1 change

From an analysis POV, it says to me that our planned fitness program to start the season off slowly and then build fitness to finish the season off strongly may not be the way to go.

We have rued a lot of losses in the first half of the season that we should have thought we would win [Ninthmond, Scum] and that would have seen us in the top 8.

Having said that, would our young team have finished games off strongly in the second half of the season as well as we have [Brisbane, Port, Bulldogs]?

What are everyone else's thoughts as the stat above is quite a glaring one IMO?
Author:  BlueGunners [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:19 am ]
Post subject: 
one thing you have to consider DUC, our game plan changed dramatically in round 4 onwards. The way we were playing in the first 3 rounds had more to do with that, than our actual fitness.

Yes we have gained fitness as the year wore on, but the biggest difference is the game plan, and that is why we lost our first 3 games and so comprehensively too. If we played the same style of game, we wouldn't be able to run off games like we do.

plus i dont think these stats mean a thing, just 6 weeks ago, saints and kangas were both outside the 8 and were struggling. Now Kangas is arguably the second best team in the comp. plus adelaide 4 weeks ago was all but gone. brissie and sydney were supposed to fight it for top 4. collingwood was on the way out. Thing change so quickly in footy that you can't use what the top 8 looks like after round 7 is anything more than a coincidence.

yes after round 7, it does show an indication of how a team is gelling together, and who looks like a player or if they have found solution to problems a team might've had in previous years, but i unless your top 2 or 3, it ends there.
Author:  DownUnderChick [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:38 am ]
Post subject: 
Habib wrote:
one thing you have to consider DUC, our game plan changed dramatically in round 4 onwards. The way we were playing in the first 3 rounds had more to do with that, than our actual fitness.

Yes we have gained fitness as the year wore on, but the biggest difference is the game plan, and that is why we lost our first 3 games and so comprehensively too. If we played the same style of game, we wouldn't be able to run off games like we do.

plus i dont think these stats mean a thing, just 6 weeks ago, saints and kangas were both outside the 8 and were struggling. Now Kangas is arguably the second best team in the comp. plus adelaide 4 weeks ago was all but gone. brissie and sydney were supposed to fight it for top 4. collingwood was on the way out. Thing change so quickly in footy that you can't use what the top 8 looks like after round 7 is anything more than a coincidence.

yes after round 7, it does show an indication of how a team is gelling together, and who looks like a player or if they have found solution to problems a team might've had in previous years, but i unless your top 2 or 3, it ends there.


habib, I thought our game plan had changed after the first 3 rounds because our fitness level was improving rather than a realisation that it wasn't working.

Regardless of teams performing badly etc and looking to fall out of the 8, the stat refers to the number of actually changes.

So although Adelaide were losing and look to be sliding and the same with the Roos and Sinners, there has only been one change to the 8 since Round 7.

This was Round 6 Top 8 ladder:

Geelong
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Adelaide
Sydney
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Brisbane Lions

This was Round 7 Top 8 ladder:

Geelong
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Adelaide
St Kilda
Sydney
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Author:  buzzaaaah [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
DUC. I hope that our lack of fitness in the first few rounds this year was a one-off as Justin Cordy strated from scratch. I don't believe that we'll be unable to run out a game Round 1 2009
Author:  TianaCon [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
I saw this too DUC & I hear what you are saying (I hope) & agree.

The top teams/clubs are making damn sure they are starting the season "strongly" so as to ensure they are sitting in the 8 when Rnd 7 (a third of the season over) comes.

If you liken the season to a "game" it's no different to starting the game well & then playing "comfortable" footy to maintain your position in the game, whereas, if you start badly, you are always playing "catch-up" footy.

We should be trying to first of all finish off strongly against the Hawks this week to give our guys something extra positive to think about over pre-season & then we need to be absolutely switched on right from the get go next season & endeavour to entrench ourselves in the 8 early. Must win the early games.

As these stats show, it is very difficult to "catch" the 8 after the first third of the season is over, so be there early imo. :) :)
Author:  Molly [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
Gee Habib, DUC et al...

this is some of the best discussion on this forum in ages, and it has hardly any replies! I hope some more learned types (than myself) are willing to reply, because I'd be interested to see a variety of views on this topic.

The only thing I have to add is that there was an article by Rohan Connoly (I think) before we played Essendon* the second time stating that after round 3 Ratten had decided our gameplan needed to change and we had to become more accountable.

So it is possible that our fitness wasn't actually all that bad in round 1-3, but we were just being shown up strategically rather than on a physical basis. Regardless, I am sure that the boys will really get well prepared in the offseason. I think that missing the finals by the small margins that we will is going to galvanise the team. Everyone saw the effect that one good match in round 22 had on Hampson's offseason last year, and I am sure that others will really look to lift their efforts this summer too.
Author:  BlueGunners [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
DUC, Full credit to Justine Cordy, but i strongly believe our game plan has contributed to our fast fitness development too which maybe in liaise with Cordy's program.

Last year, we had the worse final quarter record imaginable. Actually I think I heard at 3qrt of the pies game (round 4) that our stats were we won some 3 out of the last 30 odd last quarters or something to that range.

Now last year we played totally attacking footy. it was pagan's style. we scored the 4th highest in the FOR column, however as we all know, the worst by a country mile in the AGAINST column. Our first option was to run, and kick forward. and when the ball moves forward, so does most of our team. this looked good, and gave us a lot to cheer about, but by the 4th quarter, we'd be gone, or even late in each quarter where we continually conceded goals which just breaks our momentum and all the good work we worked our but of for, is gone in 2 or 3 minutes off "taking a breath" time.

We all recognised how our game changed against collingwood. Ratten (most likely under the advise of Cordy) recognised that we don't have the fitness to play that game, and opted to change our style. At the end of each quarter, rather than taking a breath while the opposition had the ball, we take a breathe while we have the ball, and just kick it around.
Rather than every mark we take, we just kick it quickly, now we look what our options are. Rather just stampeding forward whenever the ball heads that way, we have players that wait back.

With that, and of course the fitness regime Cordy has for us, we done a 180degree, from being the league worst fit team, to the leagues best.

This has also helped in the belief that we can come back from any realistic margin.

So I wouldn't worry about us starting slowly next year just so we will gain fitness as we did this year, we will be ready from the get go, and who knows, after round 7 we might be top 3 and guaranteed at finals finish 8)
Author:  klakker [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
It's always good to get the wins up early . I played over 300 games of Victorian country football , and it's hard to make finals if you don't have a good start . It also seems to take a toll in the fitness area if you have to win every game in the last few rounds just to make the grade , then win 3 or 4 finals on the trot .
Author:  frank dardew [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Agree
Slow start cruelled our chances -lost to Richmond Essendon* Saints early all winnable games - we have improved fitness as the year went on - but in early games really played a number of players who were horribly underdone - stevens judd hadley to name 3 had very late/ordinary fitness bases for the start of the season - perhaps in retrospect 3 of your main midfielders being included in the team at this time wasnt necessarily the right way to go ie play one or two but not 3 when none are match conditioned

When was the last time we got a good start to a season 2001 -happened to be the last time we made the finals -next year 2009 absolutely critical we get a good start - BEAT Richmond in the first game and have Plan bcd IN CASE RICHO HAS A DAY/NIGHT OUT

Really happy with where we have got this year BUT driving past the G today in the sunshine hard not to be slightly disappointed that we are not playing finals this year - two games against Essendon* were shocking -the second was perhaps the worse where we played like hollywood fashion plates because we were in the 8 and started as red hot favourites -just had to turn up to win - allowing them to lead in the first quarter by more than 30 points-got even worse in the second -oplayed 15 minutes of football -getting beaten by Angus Monfries -the guy with the orange boots

The first loss against Tigers really hurt as well
A very good season but nevertheless a lost opportunity
Author:  Adam Chatfield [ Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think its a combinatoin of thing to how we improved after round 3

1. The improved fitness of Judd & Stevens
2. Greater cohesion with a team which had never played together before
3. We have had a great run with injuries (I know we have had some but our top 6 have basically played all games in Fev, Judd, Stevo, Gibbs, Murph and Waite)
4. Still a hangover from last year in the early rounds, still not knowing how to win.

I would be surprised if we started as slowly next season.
Author:  teagueyubeauty [ Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:04 am ]
Post subject: 
The start to the year infuriated me because of the fact we didn't put players like Walker in for operations earlier than we did at the end of last season. The fact that Walker reinjured himself in the first praccy game when he could have had an extra 4-5 weeks building the strength of the shoulder before playing made my blood boil.

I hope the same things don't happen again this year, i speak in reference to Jamison.
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