First up, I am not discussing the merits of making the finals - just the probability of it happening...
...please note I ain't no mathemematics genius so I've thrown down the possibilities in the way I best know how - Grade 2 Style.
LADDER (D'uh!)
GEE 19 18 1 0 2,260 1,410 160.28% 72
HAW 19 15 4 0 2,066 1,598 129.29% 60
WB 18 14 3 1 2,093 1,705 122.76% 58
SYD 18 10 7 1 1,702 1,451 117.30% 42
NM 18 10 7 1 1,690 1,718 98.37% 42
ADE 18 10 8 0 1,657 1,558 106.35% 40
STK 18 10 8 0 1,689 1,671 101.08% 40
COL 18 9 9 0 1,890 1,727 109.44% 36
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BRI 19 9 10 0 1,904 1,892 100.63% 36
CAR 19 9 10 0 1,931 1,944 99.33% 36
RIC 18 8 9 1 1,852 1,965 94.25% 34
ESS 18 8 10 0 1,810 2,068 87.52% 32
FRE 18 5 13 0 1,633 1,736 94.07% 20
PTA 19 5 14 0 1,765 1,979 89.19% 20
WCE 18 3 15 0 1,385 2,080 66.59% 12
MEL 19 2 17 0 1,458 2,307 63.20% 8
Ok.
With Brisbane already losing, there is one thing we need to keep in mind now.
The 'Cheer on the Doggies' Scenario.
If the Dogs knock off North this week. (@ TS)
Then they knock off Brisbane next week. (@ G)
And we beat North next week. (@ TD)
We will be back in the 8.
From there, in the last two rounds Brisbane has:
Carl (G)
Syd (SCG)
and North Melbourne has:
Geel (SS)
PA (MCG)
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The 'Adelaide's Shit' Scenario.
Another avenue if either of North or Brisbane fire is Adelaide losing.
Adelaide have:
Rich (AS)
Ess (TD)
St. K (TD)
Dogs (AS)
Losses to a couple of these teams (as I don't rate Adelaide AT ALL I see this as a possibility) could see us leap-frog Adelaide before seasons end.
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The 'Saints/Pies Showdown' Scenario.
People may be cheering on St. Kilda (for apart from the obvious reasons, to give us the best chance of making the finals) - but in essence both St. Kilda and Collingwood have very easy draws in the run home.
ST KILDA play:
Coll (MCG)
Freo (S)
Adel (TD)
Ess (TD)
COLLINGWOOD play:
St. K (MCG)
Port (AS)
Syd (TD)
Freo (S)
What we'd need is either of these two teams to lose the majority.
There's no use in either team losing just one or two unless we plan to win our next three in a row.
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The 'Unlike Sydney' Scenario.
If Sydney knock off Freo they will be uncatchable, unless we win our last three and they drop their remaining all three games to:
Geel (ANZ)
Coll (TD)
Bris (SCG)
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Well there's a run down of the run home for the teams from fourth to tenth.
I didn't include teams beneath us, as for us to make the eight we'd need to win theoretically one - but realistically two and preferably three... and if this happens none of the teams beneath us will get a sniff.
