Ponkstar wrote:
Stefchook wrote:
I think the point isn't so much where we are currently on the ladder. It's more can we win enough games now to make the 8. I'd suggest not. I don't think we're good enough yet to win 10 and 1/2 games out seventeen. And although we've had 2 games on the road, we're yet to come against many of the better sides. We'll struggle to make it.
But who are the better teams - that's my point. Not Port or Brisbane on current.
Of those we are yet to play, I don't think we are in the same league as St Kilda and probably the Dees - you can't tell me that if we put it all together we can't beat any of the other lot?
Our draw from here on: Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong, Melbourne (OO), Adelaide (away), Sydney, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs (Darwin), West Coast (away), St Kilda, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon*, Kangaroos.
I don't think we can beat Geelong, West Coast or St Kilda.
I think it's unlikely we'll beat Adelaide away.
I think Brisbane and Port Adelaide will be very tough once they regain some of their players (as they should by the time we play them).
I doubt we'll beat Sydney, as we haven't beaten them in yonks.
I think Western Bulldogs in Darwin will be pretty tough.
Of the remaining 9 (or even remaining 11, if you include Sydney and Western Bulldogs), they're all winnable. But given what we've seen so far. And given where we are development wise. There's absolutely no chance that we'll win them all. We're not good enough or consistent enough to expect to win a whole lot of games on the trot.
So even if we 'pinch' some of the other games (and I think we'll beat Melbourne at OO), I can't see us getting near the 10 and 1/2 wins we'll need from here. Basically, I think, those early 'stumbles' will cost us a chance of creeping into the finals this year.