Well said Stealth,
Sometimes the truth hurts, but you've got to say it as you see it, with an open ear for better suggestions, and of course with poise.
I think your point is that we became the weakest club in every way with the exception of our history. We hit the lowest of the low, and no one, not even histoy's greats such as Pagan, Matthews, Roos, Worsfold, Malthouse, Sheedy, Parkin or Barrassi could have helped us.
We were in the same mental state as anyone who had lost all their assetts, money, friends, family, dignity, hope...a big black hole for 5 years.
As for the part:
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i really doubt that there would have been another coach around that could have done much better
...well, that's a farfetched opinion...but I know what you mean...it's a possibilty, (but I doubt it) albeit a couple more wins per season, and maybe less spoons.
We did however find friends, family, money, assetts, dignity and hope... and all of these things came from within, not from Pagan.
"No pain No gain" is so true and our pain started long before Pagan. For me, the pain started when our once in generation star had his knee smashed in the final by Knights of Richmond in 2000...we lost our Messiah...we also tied up our money in damaged goods after that...and then the rot set in.
Pagan's timing is bad luck. He read the situation and he made the choice to take the offer; no one held a gun to his head, so he has to take some responsibility for a stagnant 5 years. IMO as the on field boss, Pagan is responsible for his choices, and consequentually, mistakes that he made for this club, he is accountable for. He must take some responsibility, and Stealth you should also be considering this in your 'balanced' post, and not discount his position and his part in some of our failure; after all he's the head coach.
Pagan has had his 'ups' (with a bit of luck), and is having his 'downs' (some bad luck), but despite the fact that Pagan came to a black hole, he hasn't help change a thing for the better (for whatever reason); we did it from within. Our change of fortune, should have been in part from the Head 'super' coach Pagan, but it wasn't, it was our white knight Richard Pratt. We should never forget that, even when the great man passes away.
We can make excuses and feel sorry for Pagan, and I have and do, but when I have to judge Pagan as a success or as a failure (black and white), I would have to consider him a failure, so much so, that I truly believe a different coach could have done a better job than Pagan.
For this reason, I can't entertain the thought that retaining Pagan, let alone picking Pagan to coach, is good or has been good for Carlton in the new millenium.
Like SA Blue said, and I lean the same way:
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I too have questioned about whether Pagan is the right fit, and tend to think it is time for a fresh start.
The right new coach will be better for Carlton moving forward with this young list of 'hard knocks'; another Pagan will be a catastrophe.
If we get the right next coach, with this list, both he and Carlton FC will be on the gravy train for at least the next decade; but it's time for a change. To remain stagnant and wait for things to change, tio me, is to continue the status quo; a big risk.
It's time to change the coach for the better.