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Uppers and Downers
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Author:  Jarusa [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Uppers and Downers
Back into the stats. 8)

Decided to do a comparison of how players are travelling this year compared to last.

Using the stats from the good people at www.finalsiren.com I basically compare the average 'output' per game (dreamteam like score) of each player, 2006, vs 2007.

When I did this though most of the players ended up with negative scores, meaning they are doing worse this year compared to last (the fourth column in the table below). I then had a look at the team as a whole and it is averaging much less possession in 2007 than in 2006. This might be because of a return to a longer kicking gameplan?

Anyway, I adjusted the figures so that the team difference between years is taken into account and the number in the last column are what results. The precentage is how much better or worse each player is doing so far this year.

Still early days of course but a few observations:

- Fisher and Walker big improvers on last year
- No surprise that Whitnall and Waite and so far the biggest downers
- These numbers do not do Setanta justice, despite the negative score you would have to say his year has been better than 2006 already, the move to full-back is the factor with the numbers.
- Kennedy slightly better than last year so far which is suprising given how much criticism he has been getting on TC

Image
Author:  The Tyrant [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
not another Ben Cousins thread!
Author:  grrofunger [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
proves stats are misleading -

JR has been better this year too
Author:  Jarusa [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
grrofunger wrote:
proves stats are misleading -

JR has been better this year too


:lol: I like it, the only thing stats can prove are that stats are misleading. But how can they prove that if they are misleading to start with? :wink:

The JR one would be similar to Setanta, used as a tagger this year and the stats do not reflect his output in terms of controlling opposition midfielders.
Author:  The Tyrant [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
Jarusa wrote:
grrofunger wrote:
proves stats are misleading -

JR has been better this year too


:lol: I like it, the only thing stats can prove are that stats are misleading. But how can they prove that if they are misleading to start with? :wink:

The JR one would be similar to Setanta, used as a tagger this year and the stats do not reflect his output in terms of controlling opposition midfielders.


Jar.... is it possible to overlay ave minutes-per-game in this? or is that part of your output assumptions?
Author:  Jarusa [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:26 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Tyrant wrote:
Jarusa wrote:
grrofunger wrote:
proves stats are misleading -

JR has been better this year too


:lol: I like it, the only thing stats can prove are that stats are misleading. But how can they prove that if they are misleading to start with? :wink:

The JR one would be similar to Setanta, used as a tagger this year and the stats do not reflect his output in terms of controlling opposition midfielders.


Jar.... is it possible to overlay ave minutes-per-game in this? or is that part of your output assumptions?


I wish I could, that would give a much better comparison.

If anyone knows where I can get those sorts of stats you know who to contact! :)
Author:  nytdog [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
I like Tyrant's suggestion of factoring in time on the ground. Wiggen's 2007 average stats would certainly improve if this was done. Some other players like Murphy will probably go down.

Do the stats include one percenters? Obviously there are other intangibles it won't include like if the player beat his opponent (like when Setanta gave that soft cock Lloyd a bath).
Author:  grrofunger [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
Jarusa wrote:
grrofunger wrote:
proves stats are misleading -

JR has been better this year too


:lol: I like it, the only thing stats can prove are that stats are misleading. But how can they prove that if they are misleading to start with? :wink:

The JR one would be similar to Setanta, used as a tagger this year and the stats do not reflect his output in terms of controlling opposition midfielders.


:lol: ya know im only messing with ya jars .................right :wink:
Author:  Deano Supremo [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
I hate stats.

HATE 'EM.

The dream team culture has ruined the average footy fan.

Inside 50's are a perfect example. ooh, look, player A had 6 inside fifties. Pity they were all hospital mongrel punts marked by the opposition.

GIVE ME FOOTBALLERS, NOT POSSESSION COLLECTORS
Author:  Jarusa [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Deano Supremo wrote:
I hate stats.

HATE 'EM.


I'll pretend you never said that. 8)
Author:  tommi [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ahhhhh Mr Wolf..........

you've DONE it again................!


kindest regards tommi
Author:  Chitty's Finger [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
You need to apply a Game Plan Conversion Factor for 2006 v 2007. 2006 stats went nuts with the flooding we had going on, many of the defenders simply were drowned with stats increases. Scotland, Thornton, whitnall etc. all benefitted from waxing with each other. OUCH!

But in 2007 it looks different to this point. Not sure what the game plan conversion factor would be but our stats 2005 v 2006 were in different ballparks.
Author:  oledarknavyblue [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Deano Supremo wrote:
I hate stats.

HATE 'EM.

The dream team culture has ruined the average footy fan.

Inside 50's are a perfect example. ooh, look, player A had 6 inside fifties. Pity they were all hospital mongrel punts marked by the opposition.

GIVE ME FOOTBALLERS, NOT POSSESSION COLLECTORS


Now my son starts hooraying when an oppsition player on his dream team gets points....whats that crap....hes oppsition..hes scum...we dont want any of theirs to ever touch the ball..and every team we play we want to score NIL
Author:  The Tyrant [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
STATS ARE THE DEVIL'S WORK!!!!
Author:  jimmae [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:24 pm ]
Post subject: 
No wonder Kade has been having trouble... split personalities.
Author:  Jarusa [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ando the Wonderkid wrote:
You need to apply a Game Plan Conversion Factor for 2006 v 2007.


I did Mr Athorn. The last column ramps up each players stats to reflect 2006 averages. :wink:
Author:  Kaptain Kouta [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
Deano Supremo wrote:
I hate stats.

HATE 'EM.

The dream team culture has ruined the average footy fan.

Inside 50's are a perfect example. ooh, look, player A had 6 inside fifties. Pity they were all hospital mongrel punts marked by the opposition.

GIVE ME FOOTBALLERS, NOT POSSESSION COLLECTORS


QFT!
Author:  Warby [ Sat Apr 28, 2007 6:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Deano Supremo wrote:
I hate stats.

HATE 'EM.

The dream team culture has ruined the average footy fan.

Inside 50's are a perfect example. ooh, look, player A had 6 inside fifties. Pity they were all hospital mongrel punts marked by the opposition.

GIVE ME FOOTBALLERS, NOT POSSESSION COLLECTORS


Damn Straight !
Author:  bluedog [ Sun Apr 29, 2007 3:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Tyrant wrote:
STATS ARE THE DEVIL'S WORK!!!!


Therefore,

STATS = Collingwood
Author:  Car17on [ Sun Apr 29, 2007 9:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
One of the main reasons I have become more interested in AFL each year is the statistics. They can make or break a player, and the same numbers can be used both in favour or or against the same player! If only I had the knowledge you guys had, then I'd be able to get into them more!
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