nytdog wrote:
If we lose 4 or less games then so be it. But I would prefer to put our best team out there week in week out, so we can be competitive, because a competitive team develops more than a non competitive team getting thrashed every week. Plus we maintain moral, respect, members, sponsors, players, etc, etc. Continue to play the kids (which the MC are doing) as well as some senior players that are quality and deserve to be in the team (Lappin, Kouta, Lance).
And another good reason is that tanking to obtain early draft picks doesn't guarantee anything. It's not the way to go about it, as it only installs a poor culture at the club. I, as much as anyone, would love to have a whole bunch of early draft kids, but I would never condone putting out a losing team each week just for the sake of those picks. Certainly not before the last few rounds of the year. If we get the picks by playing well, but only winning a handful of games, then so be it - I'll happily take the picks then. But playing for picks is dispicable. It's not Carlton.
Below is an analysis of the last two grand final teams and the age and picks each player was. As you can see, the middle rounds of the draft (rounds 2 & 3) is where most players come from that end up being premiership players. That is because it is in that range that you have to successfully pick up solid, hard (but classy) workers of the team that gets you to a premiership.
It also shows that premierships are won by mature bodied teams not kids, so we have to be patient until our kids grow up. We must develop and nurture the kids as well as retain them and that can't be done by playing 22 kids each week and letting them get flogged.
Obviously there are a hell of a lot of intangibles that goes into developing a premiership team - coaching, luck with injuries, game plan and team work, etc. But I thought i would present some facts:
Age on day of GF - Player Name - Inital Draft Pick
Sydney 2006 Grand Final Team:
27 - Nic Fosdike - 3
21 - Jarrad McVeigh - 5
27 - Jude Bolton - 8
30 - Barry Hall - 19 (Trade)
27 - Nick Davis - 19 (Trade)
24 - Luke Ablett - 24
24 - Ted Richards - 27 (Trade)
23 - Lewis R-Thomson - 29 (Zone)
26 - Craig Bolton - 33 (PSD)
30 - Michael O'Loughlin - 40
27 - Adam Goodes - 43
24 - Amon Buchanan - 52
26 - Ryan O'Keefe - 56
22 - Adam Schneider - 60
22 - Nick Malceski - 64
30 - Brett Kirk - Rookie
25 - Tadhg Kennelly - Rookie
23 - Sean Dempster - 34 (FS)
25 - Stephen Doyle - 26 (FS)
25 - Darren Jolly - ??
29 - Leo Barry - Zone
28 - Ben Mathews - Zone
WCE 2006 Grand Final Team
27 David Wirrpunda - 1 (compensation selection)
33 - Drew Banfield - 1
23 Chris Judd - 3
21 Beau Waters - 11
25 Darren Glass - 11
23 Daniel Kerr - 18
24 - Quinten Lynch - 19
21 - Sam Butler - 20
22 - Mark Seaby - 22
31 Daniel Chick - 25 (Trade)
23 - Steven Armstrong - 25 (Trade)
27 - Rowan Jones - 28
26 - Tyson Stenglein - 29 (Trade)
25 Adan Hunter - 29
24 Ashley Hansen - 38
22 Adam Selwood - 53
29 - Michael Braun - 53
25 Andrew Embley - 57
24 Brett Jones - Rookie
27 Chad Fletcher - Rookie
25 - Dean Cox - Rookie
28 Ben Cousins - ?? (FS)
Points to note:
- Sydney average age = 25.6
- WCE average age = 25.2
- Sydney average draft pick* = 32.1 (2 Rookies, 2 FS, 3 Zone picks, not sure about D Jolly was a trade but dont know his initial pick)
- WCE average draft pick* = 24.6 (3 Rookies and one FS)
* taking out Rookies, FS, Compensation picks
Note: Ages have been rounded (up or down) to the nearest year.
Carlton's Current Squad
18 - Bryce Gibbs - 1
20 - Marc Murphy - 1
21 - Andrew Walker - 2
20 - Josh Kennedy - 4
21 - Jordan Russell - 9
25 - Dylan McLaren - 9 (Trade)
28 - Jason Saddington - 11 (Trade)
25 - Simon Wiggins - 15
19 - Shaun Hampson - 17
19 - Shaun Grigg - 19
19 - Paul Bower - 20
27 - Nick Stevens - 25 (Pre Season)
25 - Cain Ackland - 27 (Pre Season)
21 - Adam Hartlett - 25
18 - Mark Austin - 35
19 - Jake Edwards - 36
26 - Brendan Fevola - 38
31 - Matthew Lappin - 40 (Trade)
22 - Cameron Cloke - 43 (Trade)
27 - Heath Scotland - 44 (Trade)
23 - Kade Simpson - 45
25 - Jordan Bannister - 47 (Trade)
19 - Clint Benjamin - 51
18 - Joe Anderson - 67
23 - Brad Fisher - 72
25 - Ryan Houlihan - 73
20 - Anthony Raso - 77
21 - Luke Blackwell - 41 (FS)
24 - Jarrad Waite - 46 (FS)
28 - Lance Whitnall 49 (FS)
34 - Anthony Koutoufides - Zone
20 - Eddie Betts - Pre Season
26 - David Teague - Rookie (Trade)
24 - Setanta O'hAilpin - Rookie
24 - Brett Thornton - Rookie
23 - Andrew Carrazzo - Rookie
22 - Adam Bentick - Rookie
20 - Ryan Jackson - Rookie
24 - Ross Young - Rookie
20 - Craig Flint - Rookie
Average age is 22.4 and average pick is 31.6 (taking out the FS, Rookies, and Kouta - Zone pick). Given that a number of late picks are speculative and won't play in a premiership, the average pick would come down to the mid to late 20s which is good enough to do well. If we can't make it work in 4-5 years with the picks we have, then there is something very wrong with the development, coaching, recruiting and trading at Carlton. It means that we will never do well because we should have enough talent now (for 3-5 years time), comparing it with other successful clubs.
We have been near the bottom for long enough. It's time to bite the bullet and start making some in roads. That means to build a game plan and a solid foundation of competitive performances from here on out. We will get a high draft pick no matter what (given our current form) and we have virtually no chance of getting the priority pick because we will win at least 3 more games. So lets see the year out with at least another 6-7 wns to give us confidence for the next few years. That's the way you develop a team - by playing winning football. The 3rd or 4th pick in the draft should be just as good as the 1st or 2nd pick if we do the right scouting.
The West Coast Eagles should be a role model for the Blues. They have played finals football every year in the past 16 years since the AFL has been running except for 2 years where they finished 13 an 14. In that time they have played in 5 grand finals and have won 3 of premierships. They may even go on for a few more. They have never needed to tank because they have a culture of success. That's the same culture we have to develop. A culture where we can consistently stay at the top by the best recruiting, best resources, good player management, etc. Gone are the days where we can buy success. And we shouldn't fall into the trap of St Kilda or Richmond who's culture of losing gets them no where.
Ah my friend nytdog... your own argument is the problem we have.
When Lance and Kouta are "quality" in our side... we are poor...