TalkingCarlton
http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/

Have we improved? (2002 - 2006)
http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12355		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Monty Burns [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Have we improved? (2002 - 2006)
In my spare time over the last few weeks, I did some analysis of our last 5 seasons (2002 - 2006). Obviously, you can decipher statistics any way you want but I thought at least some of these might be interesting to you.

I've ignored Games Won / Lost - but looked at deeper stats


YEAR....................................2002.......2003.......2004.......2005.......2006

Avg Win Margin..........................8.............9...........22...........20..........20
Avg Losing Margin....................34...........51...........52...........43..........38

Ttl Qtrs Won............................28...........26...........35...........28..........32
Ttl Qtrs Drawn..........................1.............0.............1............2............4
Ttl Qtrs Lost............................59...........62............52..........58..........52

Goals Kicked.........................244..........259.........268..........293........257
Goals Conceeded..................337..........394..........328.........400........354
Varaince..............................(93).........(135)........(60).......(107).......(97)

Losses 1-20 pts.......................7..............4.............2.............5.............7
Losses 21-40 pts.....................5..............5.............3.............5.............4
Losses 41-60 pts.....................5..............2.............3.............2.............2
Losses 61-80 pts.....................1..............4.............1.............3.............3
Losses 81-100 pts...................0..............1.............1.............2.............2
Losses 100+ pts.....................1...............2.............2.............0.............0

# of times we kicked
more than 100 pts..................2..............4..............6.............8.............5

# of times we conceeded
more than 100 pts.................10............16............12............19..........16

Avg Score For.......................76............81............83............92..........81
Avg Score Against...............105...........122..........102..........121........110
Variance............................(29)..........(41)..........(19).........(29).......(29)


Obviously when looking at whether we have improved we'd need to take into alot of other things such as list improvement, injuries etc but I'm merely looking at our results....


With or Without Pagan.....GO BLUES!!!!!!
Author:  grrofunger [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
so what are you saying we have or we haven't !?!?

nice analysis and woulda taken a while to get thos figures together

but no we haven't improved at all :evil:
Author:  true_blue3 [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
i'd take this current list over the 2002 one anyday. we had no future back then, now we have:

murphy,
kennedy,
walker,
simpson,
russell,
bentick,
blackwell,
fisher,
o'hailpins,
jackson,
bower,
hartlett,
gibbs/hansen

to look forward to.
Author:  Jarusa [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Thanks Monty, you just saved me a heap of time. :lol: Great stuff!

I reckon it is a definite improvement.

While the 2002 and 2006 number do not look a lot different, the 2002 numbers were from an aging team on the decline, while the 2006 numbers are from a young team with their best footy ahead of them.

Those that say we have gone nowhere in 4 years are either ignorant or using hubris to support another argument.

I have not checked properly yet, but I think we have won around the same number of quarters this year as Richmond who finished ninth (again :lol: ). Just look at our 2004 quarters won only three more than this year but 10 wins instead of 3 and a half.


Author:  grrofunger [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
we have more to be optimistic about at the end of this year than we did at the end of 02

but face the facts - we were crap then and are crap now - big deal we won the same amount of quarters as richmond - they still came 9th and we still came last

we came last AGAIN!

its not good enough
Author:  Blue Vain [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
If we continue this level of on field improvement, we'll have the best list in the history of the AFL in 5 years!

Amazing is'nt it.
Be shitful for 5 years and your list improves.
The AFL system at it's best.
Author:  Jarusa [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
grrofunger wrote:
we have more to be optimistic about at the end of this year than we did at the end of 02

but face the facts - we were crap then and are crap now - big deal we won the same amount of quarters as richmond - they still came 9th and we still came last

we came last AGAIN!

its not good enough


So you would rather be ninth right now with the same amount of quarters won?




Author:  grrofunger [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
haha good one jarusa !!

no i will take pick 1 - but richmond are clearly better than we are regardless of the amounts of quarters won
Author:  seanpb [ Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
id like to join the growing list of ppl saying great stuff monty, really good work.

i do think we are in a better position that 2002, much better. having said that...id like to see pagan go. whether or not we can afford it or whatever its time for some change...in another thread a quite astute poster mentioned a decsion regarding denis must be made before trade and especially draft week, if someone is going to step in they deserve to have some say in who we pick up.

two more yrs of denis is a very long time.
Author:  Chitty's Finger [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
The thing I really like about your work and your stats is that up until 2006 the goal scoring was improving - that our forwards were maturing and getting better and despite the move to flooding we were still doing better.

Then 2006 hit and Fevola kicked 84 goals and next best was..... Betts with not much.

At the same time Waite and Fish were either shocking or injured and Whitnall found himself minding Rocca and others. So most of our half forward line fell away. So how good could we have been if Waite was 2005 Waite rather than 2006 Waite?
Author:  nightcrawler [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Nice work, did you lift that out of Pagan's powerpoint slides from Tuesday night?

I think those stats demonstrate that overall we've stabalised and are starting to improve again, and to a certain extent the fact that Waite and Fisher were missing for much of the season.

The worrying stat for me is "games we would have won without Fevola" which is ZERO. If he goes down next season they can just give us the spoon and the first two picks straight up.

For what it's worth I still think 2003 was our worst season by far.
Author:  Kaptain Kouta [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 8:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
Where I think we have improved is that a lot of the rabble-rousers, and stirrers have been removed from the Club, and a team ethos of Carlton being bigger than the individual is being re-built. This rebuilding of the team spirit, and respect for Carlton, which in its own way was being eroded by the selfish deadwood, must result in better on-field performances as the kids, the foundations to carlton's future, mature.
Author:  jim [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 8:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
Jarusa wrote:
Thanks Monty, you just saved me a heap of time. :lol: Great stuff!

I reckon it is a definite improvement.

While the 2002 and 2006 number do not look a lot different, the 2002 numbers were from an aging team on the decline, while the 2006 numbers are from a young team with their best footy ahead of them.

Those that say we have gone nowhere in 4 years are either ignorant or using hubris to support another argument.

I have not checked properly yet, but I think we have won around the same number of quarters this year as Richmond who finished ninth (again :lol: ). Just look at our 2004 quarters won only three more than this year but 10 wins instead of 3 and a half..


We've improved as individuals, no doubt, but sadly, as a team, we've gone backwards, the latter which is sadly the coach's.......and the idiot's kept him. Player's improve a individual's for various reasons, which can because of, or in spite , of the coach. 3 1/2 wins is 6/12 less than 10, very significant irrespective of how one looks at it. Qtr's won mean f@ck all if you're not winning games. We had alot of qtr's won and closer games due to goals in junk time. I look at the 2 spoons, with a list that's better than what we had in 2004 and the 2005 Wizard Cup as more of a guiode as to how we're going. Progress is one thing but wins on the board is another, and while we don't expect finals we expect something much better than 3 1/2 wins. I don't expect much now in the next two years unless anothe ticket gets over the line at the AGM. Given they won't be as spineless as the current board, that'll probably be the death knell for the coach
Author:  Blue Vain [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
Jarusa wrote:
I have not checked properly yet, but I think we have won around the same number of quarters this year as Richmond who finished ninth (again :lol: ). Just look at our 2004 quarters won only three more than this year but 10 wins instead of 3 and a half.




How'd you go Jar?
Have'nt heard from you yet.


(The only thing Denis gave away and its bullshit!) :wink:
Author:  blueman [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:32 pm ]
Post subject: 
The basic problem is

that because we have fallen so far

and

the task required to get back is so large

in a competition where the standard is very high and getting higher,

a very large amount of the work that is needed to improve will not show for a very long time.

For all his faults, Denis Pagan's methods belong to another time and look outdated, but they are basically correct.

This creates the impression that things are not working, and they are not progressing, when in fact they are, but because of our terrible situation, progress seems painfully slow.

However there might be very a big rush in improvement at the very end of proceedings.
Author:  Chitty's Finger [ Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Just to add to your work I was trying to work out how much if any Pagan has turned over the list for games and found that:

2004: 248 games were played by those 23 or under
2005: 254 games were played by those 23 or under
2006: 305 games were played by those 23 or under

This is against 22*22=484 games per year and also players on the list get older every year so say someone like Fev is excluded from 2006. Thats says something, sortof, that we are moving to younger players overall and maybe they are getting a chance.

Also we had 152 games in 2006 from those 25 or over, down from 181 games in 2005 but both are about double what we had in 2004.

About 30% of games played for the Blues this year were played by players 21 or under which would and could have been higher but for MURPHYs injury. That was 147 games. There were 137 in 2005 and 167 in 2004 but in 2004 we had a few younger players do really well in Waite, Norman, Deluca, Houlihan and Bannister who have either gone or got older over the same time period.
Page 1 of 1 All times are UTC + 10 hours
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/