I want us to play unsociable football
Not too much of that lately

coming from you, this should mean something, since you're somewhat of a connoisseur of embarrassment. but strangely, i feel nothing.

Interesting take.
You posted less than half the statistics originally. I just completed the picture with the information you failed to provide.
I don't recall you mentioning “Lies, damn lies & statistics.” or qualifying information for select games when you originally posted a select portion of the statistics.

For the record, I understand the stats don't tell the full picture but the data is a reflection of what's actually occurring. I understand there are contributing factors but the statistics are a highly valued indicator. That's why the clubs all obtain the information of Champion Data and no doubt make decisions based upon that data.
When they go to Mark Twain, I might start reconsidering my position.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

The Answer is simple for us Posters.
The Answer is not what you or I or anyone at TC says it is.
Some of us are punters and deal in absolutes. Risk takers
Some of us are thinkers and think of possibilities. Risk averse

101 Stats: lets start here

Statistics can be used in a misleading fashion, to trick the casual observer into believing something other than what the data shows.

A misuse of statistics occurs when a statistical argument asserts a falsehood. It may be accidental but nonetheless misleading. When its pushed purposefully for the gain of the manipulator, its still misleading. When the statistical reason involved is false or misapplied, this constitutes a statistical fallacy.

When a statistical test shows a correlation between A and B, as some seem to have as their sole crux, its not that simple, because there are usually six possibilities (NOT ONE):

1. A causes B.
2. B causes A.
3. A and B both partly cause each other.
4. A and B are both caused by a third factor, C.
5. B is caused by C which is correlated to A.
6. The observed correlation was due purely to chance.

You see its not that black and white as some want me to believe. I'm not programmed to believe and be gullible. Search for the truth, look at ALL the possibilities, the probabilities, and somewhere in there you will find the truth, which may be stuffed up by some thing as simple as the weather, especially the decision to play 2 rucks (see I'm arguing there for one ruck in bad weather, because its a possibility therefore a consideration)

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

ITS AS SIMPLE or as complex AS THIS

IMO there's 2 important reasons Vossy must consider before he makes a decision on 2 rucks.

1. Does he want 3 tall KPFs (Eg Harry Charlie TDK/SOS) to stretch the opposition because they can't match them in height and deters them to play 2 defenders on a KPF. He must consider the strengths of the opposition's backline when the ball hits the floor. With one of the KPFs (Fwd Ruck) giving the ruckman a chop out without robbing us of our structure 2 KPFs

2. If Vossy chooses one ruck, he must consider the chance of the sole ruckman being injured, by accident or on purpose (dependent on the disposition of the opposition: player and coach), and if injured does Vossy have cover to fill the ruck. He may decide to play no ruck, and plan on our midfield group to try and read the oppositions ruck/ midfield positioning.

None of us know what he would do if Carlton are in a do or die Final. Call it the Grand Final, Your decision/ position here on TC is an easy decision given there's no consequences, and you can base your position, which seems to be our win loss with 1 ruck vs 2 rucks, whereas Vossy's decision has serious consequences. There's no 2nd chance.

What I know from experience is the game played against the opposition in the Grand Final, will be a different game against the same opposition played during the H & A. Why? As mentioned before, the players selected may be different, maybe sore, form, weather, ground, opposition selections, opposition learnings.

I admire both our rucks. Their stats speak for themselves. I admire the team and coach. I prefer option one with 3 KPFs because I believe the fitness of our team this year is enough to play 4 quarters (look at the TOG of our subs this year) and on the big stage TDK has marked and kicked goals as KPF/Ruck See GWS this year when GWS was undefeated and we challenged them and won convincingly, and last years Final against Melbourne when TDK marked and kicked goals.

In Vossy I trust. In TC, Im just debating, and my opinion counts for zero at the selection table, but don't call Vossy an idiot if he selects 2 rucks or 1. We know its a tougher choice than typing a post with a limited POV.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

We won the Melbourne Final because of the 2 rucks IMO

TDK as a KPF was a big reason we won against Melbourne in the Final
TDK took TWO huge marks and kicked TWO huge goals as a result in the first quarter
That set us up, and gave us a great start. We gained confidence and belief we could win.

No one can deny Pitto played a big role in that game too regardless what braithy keeps saying about 2 rucks being a failure last year.
Without Pitto in the ruck, TDK wouldn't have kicked those goals.
Without Pitto in ruck doing Gawns head in, and maiming him by jumping into Gawn and kneeing him we would not have won imo.

Lets also thank Goodwin for last years result too; the coach who last week decided to go in with no ruck.

Those who think ruck isn't important, are those who have never played midfield.
Whether you had a dominant ruck, or a dominated ruck, you would know how important they are.
I feel bad when 90kg Kennedy goes up against 110kg Xerri.
Those who can't see Charlie doesn't kick goals when Harry's in the ruck are turning a blind eye.

I digress. This is about the dumb decision Goodwin made to not select 2 rucks in the Final.
Goodwin selected Gawn to play as the sole ruck and left Grundy out of the team.
Of course they could work together, but Goodwin thought not.

In the Final it was obvious the only player we had trouble with in our backline was when Gawn went there for a rest.
Every time he went forward he marked and had a shot at goal. Thank god for those post he hit.
He's the best ruck in ther land, but he CAN play forward too braithy. He can kick goals from outside 50!

Luckily for us, when Gawn wasn't in the ruck Pitto and TDK dominated, so Gawn in the forwardline for the game wasn't an option, and a case of Robbing Peter to pay for Paul.
Melbourne had momentum in the last but had no dangerous marking targets.
If Grundy, fresh or not, played in the ruck in the last, and Gawn stayed forward they would have won.

So much for 2 rucks failing us on that day.

Fast forward this year, we enjoyed our biggest turnover score with 2 rucks against GWS.

When things click they click.
I believe we will be even more switched on in Finals and make every opporunity count.
ie TDK will be dangerous as the 3rd kahuna. and we all know what he can do in the ruck too.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

FINAL OPTION: BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

TDK as the sole ruck
Pitto as the sub.

I would be content to play only one ruck in the first 22 with Pitto as the sub incase we have injury, which means 2 KPs whilst TDK rucks and 1 KP when TDK rests.

If there's no injury to TDK (fingers crossed) and we want to stretch the oppositions backline, we can bring a fresh ruck in the last, or when Voss sees fit to run amok in the ruck and also play as the extra mid, just as Pitto has shown he can be this year, and TDK can go to the forward line as a 3rd option.

I'm sure everyone has heard the saying, players get slower as the game runs deeper, but rucks don't get any shorter. TDK will have a height advantage over most 3rd defenders. If our small can run the 3rd Defender around all game before TDK goes down there, I think that will help his cause too.

TDK and Pitto in the ruck have been clearance machines. Both great in the first ruck role. A fresh Pitto, against a tiring banged up opponent.

Finally, if Grundy, Briggs type is the opposing ruck against TDK in a Final, and TDK is being bullied, Pitto is there to bring in to go into battle with his bigger body

If we play Freo in a Final, Darcy and Jackson will be rucking. I think Vossy would play the 2 rucks from the get go, or apply the above strategy and bring in Pitto if needed.

There are too many reasonanble options to play the 2 rucks to totally dismiss the idea.

Given TDK will be off his feet for the next 4-5 weeks, I can't see him rucking for 80% of the time, but I expect him back for Finals or a Final. I would put money on it that Vossy will play 2 rucks if he selects TDK to play. Its an option, easy to dismiss but no way its not an option for Voss.

Bottom line, I'm sure Vossy hasn't made up his mind till he gets to Finals, knows who his opposition is and knows the players he has on hand to pick from. That's a reasonable thing to do. Hey?

In Vossy I trust.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

TL;DR

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

FMD, this hooha has been going back and forwards for 18 months. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
The only certainty is Vossy and the MC wont be coming here for us to solve their issues.

Let's hope we win games and finals no matter the composition of the team.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

Mate, the extra data was appreciated. I wasn’t trying to obfuscate the facts by leaving the other side out of the data set. My intention was to show that it’s impossible to draw any conclusions from the win-loss record of the two-ruck games in isolation.

That’s where the argument was. I’m glad we’ve moved on… the kids haven’t, but I’m happy to drive off without them. They’re not mine.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

And just so we a can put a stop to fake news and makey uppey numbers about last year's make up lets have a look at the last 2 years with our rock selections and results:

So braithy, you have said all year that not only this year, but last years results also show us that 2 rucks didnt work.

Whilst I agree there's more intelligence to add that raw numbers, lets look at the raw numbers and refer to them instead of hearsay.

I'm expecting to see a stop of using last years numbers as a reference point.

You will be surprised to see that Pitto plays more than 60% TOG.

In fact he's played 87%, 86%, 84%, 85% 83% 81% Ruck, proving braithy's assertions false news, whilst proving Pitto can offer the team braithy's 80% benchmark.

% = TOG for Pitto.

2023

1 -D … RICH - (TDK / Young) v Nankervis
2 -W …GEEL - (TDK / Pitto) 53% v Stanley & Blicavs
3 -W …GWS - (TDK / Pitto) 54% v Flynn
4 -W … NM - (TDK/ Pitto ) 69% v Goldstein
5- L … ADEL – (TDK) 14% v OBrien Pitto inj 10 min mark
6 -L … STK - (Pitto / Young) 84% v Marshall
7 -W … WCE - (Pitto) 85% v Williams
8- L … BRIS - (Pitto) 87% v McInerney
9- L … WB - (Pitto) 78% v English
10- L … COLL- (Pitto) 81% v Cox & Cameron
11- L … SYD- (Pitto/ TDK) 83% v Grundy & Maclean
12- L … MELB … (TDK) v Gawn & Grundy
13- L…ESS … (TDK) v Philips a& Draper
14- W … GCS … (Pitto/ TDK) 70% v Witts
15- W … HAWK …(Young) v Meek & Reeves
16- W … FREO …(Young) v Darcy & Jackson
17-W … PA … (TDK) v Lycett
18-W …WCE …(TDK/ Young) v Williams
19-W …COLL … (TDK/ Pitto) 76% v Cameron & Cox
20-W … STK … (TDK/ Pitto) 72% v Marshall
21- W …MELB …(TDK/Pitto) 66% v Gawn & Grundy
21-W …GCS … (TDK/ Pitto) 70% v Witts
22-L … GWS … (TDK) v Briggs

F- W … SYD … (TDK/ Pitto) 61% v Hickey & Maclean
F- W …MELB…(TDK/ Pitto) 76% v Gawn
F-W …BRIS … (TDK/ Pitto) 67% v McInerney

ONE RUCK

W 2 TDK - 2 Young- PITTO = 5
L 3 TDK – 1 PITTO = 4 (incl 1 Final)

TWO RUCK

D = 1 (Young/TDK) = 1
W= 11 (Pitto/TDK)
W= 1 (TDK/Young) = 12 (incl 2 Finals)
L = 2 (TDK/ Pitto)
L = 1 (TDK/Young) = 3 (incl 1 Final)

SUMMARY

One Ruck W 5 L 3
Two Rucks W 12 D 1 L 3

2024

1 -W … BRIS … (TDK) v McInerney
2 -W … RICH…(TDK) v Nankervis
3 -W … NTH … (TDK) v Xerri
4 -W … FREO …(TDK) v Jackson
5 -L …ADEL … (TDK/ Pitto) 50% v Obrien Pitto Off ground 5 mins left with 16 pts lead
6 -W …GWS … (TDK/Pitto) 68% v Briggs
7 - L … GEEL …(TDK/Pitto) 66% v Stanley. Won every stat except Bad kicking cost us
8 -L …COLL …(TDK/Pitto) 68% v Cameron & Cox last minute goal by Daicos
9 -W …MELB …(TDK/ Pitto) 73% v Gawn
10-L…SYD … (TDK/Pitto) 78% v Grundy Maclean Pitto played with broken finger
11-W…GCS … (TDK) v Witts first game back from injury
12-W … PM …(TDK) v Soldo
13-W … ESS …(TDK) v Goldstein
14-W … GEEL …(TDK) v DeKoning & Blicavs
15-W … RICH …( Pitto ) 75% v Nankervis
16- L … GWS … (TDK ) v Briggs
17- L … WB … (TDK) v Briggs
18-W …NM …(TDK) v Xerri
19 Better win
20 Better win
21 Better win
22 Better win
23 Better win

ONE RUCK

W 9 TDK
W 1 Pitto =10
L TDK = 1

TWO RUCKS

W 2 TDK/ Pitto = 2
L 1 TDK/Pitto when Pitto off ground and only one ruck on ground
L1 TDK/Pitto
L 2 TDK/Pitto last minute loss and TDK’s worst game in years v Swans = L4

SUMMARY

One Ruck W10 L 1

Two Rucks W2 L3

Every game is different for a lot of different reasons.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Its the Ruck Thread

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

I can drink to that.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

Come on BV

Its the ruck thread FFS.

Its only been going for less than a week.

Lets have a balanced approach, and look at the other side of the statistics; the complex ones Champion Data doesn't provide ie considerations Coaches must consider beyond the simple stats.

Of course the Coach and MC see more and consider more than the raw data from Champion Data. You do too. You know the game.

Champion Data is just a starting point. Hoyne isn't GOD. Ofcourse he wants to to promote his product. He makes money from it. He provides content for the repetitive SEN
He doesn't say that Champion Data is the beginning and end of the conversations or considerations, quite contrary. He says Champion data is indicative, and a starting point. There's more to the game than his data, such as injury, coaches moves, coaches tactics....

Come on. Come to the side of reason and open mindedness of the possibilities and options.

Mark Twain was not a dumb person. He is relevant to this discussion.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

jeez you can talk and talk eh ...

Dees outplayed us the whole night .... ultimately we won bcos of one of our few turnovers that night. weitering cuts it off and rolls it back into the middle to ollie. game over.

turnover is king. it's what wins games and it's what the premiers do better than any other team in the comp.


3 talls in a forwardline is never going to apply the pressure you need to win. it's really simple.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

If only................

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I'm shocked to be sitting here

Doesn't know what he's missing out on .

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All my dangerous friends