aboynamedsue wrote:
What factual data have you offered? Simply telling me how many games were missed last year through injury is not relevant because I've told you that I don't believe injuries are the only problem. Of course we would have finished higher last year without injuries, but I do not accept that we would have been top 4 simply because of where we finished 2009-2011. Did you ever consider it a possibility that Semi Finals (2011) was as far as we could go with this group, at least under Ratten's game style? I posted on TC last pre-season (ie. before the injuries) that I thought we'd need a lot to go right to finish top 4 in 2012 and realistically I'd be happy to just make the finals.
Telling you about the games missed through injury is "not relevant"?

Surely you're taking the piss?
In 2010, West Coast had a terrible injury toll and have a guess where they finished? bottom. wooden spooners. Yet they beat us in a semi final 12 months later! They fell further than Carlton and then made the preliminary final! With the same coach! Lucky they had the smarts to retain him in the face of criticism. They obviously didnt think he'd taken the players as far as he could with the game plan. So the theory about why the semi finals are some magical limit for Ratten dont hold up IMO? Ask Malthouse. Look where Collingwood finished in 2005 after a poor run with injury. I'll bet there were plenty of supporters saying he'd taken them as far as he could.
So history tells me teams will underperform significantly with a substantial injury list. Whether the coach is Mick Malthouse, John Worsfold or Brett Ratten If you dont have the cattle......
The facts are we went to Perth in 2011 and were within a goal of a prelim. With Judd out of form, Gibbs missing, Waite missing, Kruezer missing. Ratten and the Blues were lauded for their courage and performance. Yet look at the same group 12 months later.
It shows injuries can have a huge impact on a teams performance. Not just in players available but the extra load on the lesser players and the resulting loss of confidence that comes from diminished performance.
aboynamedsue wrote:
You also seem critical of the new coach's game style, yet sure we'll make the top 4. I find that a little hard to work out.
Go back and read the post. I said MM will come to his senses and hopefully he will. You cant go from being the second shortest kicking team in the competition to the longest on the whim of a coach. Malthouse is smart enough to understand we arent Collingwood and he'll adapt. Just as the players will.
aboynamedsue wrote:
Your post simply gives your opinions on players. Just as I have my opinions. They are not statements of fact.
Anyway, if you want data, check out Champion Data's assessment of our list in this year's AFL prospectus. They rate Carlton's list quality as 9th overall and our defenders as 14th in the competition. FWIW, I think that assessment is closer to the mark than yours and, coupled with the necessary adjustment period to implement the new coach's game style/plan, leads me to believe that we are likely to finish anywhere between 5th-12th in 2013.
I really really hope I'm wrong, but I simply can't see us as a top 4 team this year.
Champion datas assessment is based on opinion. Just like yours and mine.
History tells me we had a finals quality team for 3 years. It also tells me we had one of the worst injury lists of recent time in the one year we missed the finals.
History also tells me teams can bounce back to a preliminary final after one bad year of injuries. They're all facts, not opinions.
I'm happy to go with them.
FWIW, in my opinion, the list is better than it was 2 years ago. Lets hope I'm right and we're all celebrating some finals success..