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PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:40 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Blue Vain wrote:
aboynamedsue wrote:

If injuries were the only problem, why did we sack the coach?


Because we have a weak, reactive board and an impatient supporter group.



For how long now have we been building/rebuilding?

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:48 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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My main concern is, as BV says, our reactive supporter group. Sometimes the way things are stirred up borders on hysteria.

We'll have a patchy start because of quality opposition and new game plan, but we will have a crack at top 4 by the end of the year. People do forget the '11 WC final quickly, that to me is the measuring stick for mine for this side, not 2012.

Keep punching BV!


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:03 pm 
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Ken Hunter

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aboynamedsue wrote:
SurreyBlue wrote:
I agree wholeheartedly with the "above the shoulders" comment as well. My biggest concern with this group over the past few years.
However, I believe someone of Malthouses experience and standing should have no issue addressing it. That is the reason we pay him the big bucks.


He should be able to address it, but my point is that one summer is not enough time. It's a bigger job than most think. I reckon we'll need to be patient in 2013.


..this.. ..have been going on for a while now about our lack of experienced kpp's, and the fact that any kpp with versatility spends far too much time playing too many roles to become settled in any one of them..

..it takes years to get your kpps' capable of holding down their position, and every couple of seasons we've got new players trying to cut it.. ..meanwhile, the rest of the list continues to age, and at a 'faster rate'.. ..and we pin our hopes on the injury riddled and longshot spec. picks to become the seasoned spine we require..

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:07 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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aboynamedsue wrote:

What factual data have you offered? Simply telling me how many games were missed last year through injury is not relevant because I've told you that I don't believe injuries are the only problem. Of course we would have finished higher last year without injuries, but I do not accept that we would have been top 4 simply because of where we finished 2009-2011. Did you ever consider it a possibility that Semi Finals (2011) was as far as we could go with this group, at least under Ratten's game style? I posted on TC last pre-season (ie. before the injuries) that I thought we'd need a lot to go right to finish top 4 in 2012 and realistically I'd be happy to just make the finals.


Telling you about the games missed through injury is "not relevant"? :grin: Surely you're taking the piss?

In 2010, West Coast had a terrible injury toll and have a guess where they finished? bottom. wooden spooners. Yet they beat us in a semi final 12 months later! They fell further than Carlton and then made the preliminary final! With the same coach! Lucky they had the smarts to retain him in the face of criticism. They obviously didnt think he'd taken the players as far as he could with the game plan. So the theory about why the semi finals are some magical limit for Ratten dont hold up IMO? Ask Malthouse. Look where Collingwood finished in 2005 after a poor run with injury. I'll bet there were plenty of supporters saying he'd taken them as far as he could.
So history tells me teams will underperform significantly with a substantial injury list. Whether the coach is Mick Malthouse, John Worsfold or Brett Ratten If you dont have the cattle......

The facts are we went to Perth in 2011 and were within a goal of a prelim. With Judd out of form, Gibbs missing, Waite missing, Kruezer missing. Ratten and the Blues were lauded for their courage and performance. Yet look at the same group 12 months later.
It shows injuries can have a huge impact on a teams performance. Not just in players available but the extra load on the lesser players and the resulting loss of confidence that comes from diminished performance.



aboynamedsue wrote:
You also seem critical of the new coach's game style, yet sure we'll make the top 4. I find that a little hard to work out.


Go back and read the post. I said MM will come to his senses and hopefully he will. You cant go from being the second shortest kicking team in the competition to the longest on the whim of a coach. Malthouse is smart enough to understand we arent Collingwood and he'll adapt. Just as the players will.

aboynamedsue wrote:
Your post simply gives your opinions on players. Just as I have my opinions. They are not statements of fact.

Anyway, if you want data, check out Champion Data's assessment of our list in this year's AFL prospectus. They rate Carlton's list quality as 9th overall and our defenders as 14th in the competition. FWIW, I think that assessment is closer to the mark than yours and, coupled with the necessary adjustment period to implement the new coach's game style/plan, leads me to believe that we are likely to finish anywhere between 5th-12th in 2013.

I really really hope I'm wrong, but I simply can't see us as a top 4 team this year.


Champion datas assessment is based on opinion. Just like yours and mine.
History tells me we had a finals quality team for 3 years. It also tells me we had one of the worst injury lists of recent time in the one year we missed the finals.
History also tells me teams can bounce back to a preliminary final after one bad year of injuries. They're all facts, not opinions.
I'm happy to go with them.

FWIW, in my opinion, the list is better than it was 2 years ago. Lets hope I'm right and we're all celebrating some finals success..

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Last edited by Blue Vain on Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:47 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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You're being very selective with your facts BV. There's plenty of examples of teams that have not followed the 'incremental improvement' theory (eg. Haw make Semi Finals in 2000 and then Prelim in 2001 and then don't play finals again until 2007; Freo make the Prelim in 2006 and then don't play finals again until 2010; St K lose a preliminary final by a kick in 2004 and don't make the GF until 2009; WB play in successive Prelims in 2008-2010 and go no further...the point is you can pull historical examples out to support almost any argument).

By the way, I don't dismiss 'incremental improvement' (it's a very valid concept), but I do think you have to remember that it can be off set by other factors other than injuries - eg. a side might catch teams out for awhile with a certain tactic or game plan but then they get worked out; trends in game style change (sometimes due to rule changes) that adversly effect the team's style or the club is slow to respond to the changes; players go backwards or don't develop like you think they will (they are not robots); sometimes players and teams play 'above themselves' in a season and cannot sustain that level of performance; age catches up with key players; internal issues at a club; bad trade/recruitment decisions; other teams improve faster; even the draw can be a factor.

My point is, I don't think it's as simple as "we played EFs, then we played a SF, it automatically follows that a PF is around the corner". So many things can change from season to season. The step from top 8 to top 4 is almost as big as the step from top 4 to premiers. You've said you think we have the cattle to be top 4 in 2013. I have said I have my doubts about that and, in any event, I think it will take MM a large chunk of the season to ingrain his game style into the players so that they instinctively know what to do under real big game pressure.

And you're misrepresenting me. I have not said that injuries weren't a factor in 2012. I am saying that injuries are not the only reason we failed to make top 4 in 2012.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:33 am 
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formerly King Kenny
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Last I checked we haven't played for four points yet?

Until we have meaningful game(s) to review all comments are baseless IMO.

If you think preseason is good form, here is a fact for you, we were the second best team!


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:42 am 
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Stephen Kernahan

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King Kenny wrote:
Last I checked we haven't played for four points yet?

Until we have meaningful game(s) to review all comments are baseless IMO.


Actually, the pre-season competition has been a very good guide over the past 5 years. The winner has been top 4 every year.

King Kenny wrote:
If you think preseason is good form, here is a fact for you, we were the second best team!


I agree. Top 4 should be our expectation.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:10 am 
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Stephen Kernahan

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aboynamedsue wrote:
You're being very selective with your facts BV. There's plenty of examples of teams that have not followed the 'incremental improvement' theory (eg. Haw make Semi Finals in 2000 and then Prelim in 2001 and then don't play finals again until 2007; Freo make the Prelim in 2006 and then don't play finals again until 2010; St K lose a preliminary final by a kick in 2004 and don't make the GF until 2009; WB play in successive Prelims in 2008-2010 and go no further...the point is you can pull historical examples out to support almost any argument).


I agree. And thats what I'm asking others to do ABNS. Be selective with the facts.
Look at the injury correlation between Carlton in 2012, West Coast in 2010 and Collingwood in 2005. They didnt throw the baby out with the bathwater and demand a rebuild. They realised the impact injury had on their list and had the courage to stick fat. They were rewarded with instant improvement the following year.

We on the other hand caved in to the hysteria, sacked the coaching group and have radically revamped the playing style. :?
Yet 12 months earlier with a reasonable injury toll, we were 5 points off a prelim with a team that was 3rd youngest in the finals race from memory.

This team has the structure, ability and talent base to have success IMO. We just need an administration with half the courage and decision making skills we expect of the players.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 8:14 am 
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Stephen Silvagni
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We need to firstly beat the likes of Port and the Gold Coast rather than lose to them.

Second: we need to keep ahead of teams behind us like Richmond, Essendon* and Brisbane.

Third: we need to pass teams we are not far behind like St Kilda, North and Fremantle.

Fourth: we need to hope Collingwood still can't beat us.

Fifth: we need to finally beat Hawthorn.

Sixth: we need to beat the bottom sides every time we play them.

Then we may make the top 4. No time for snoozing in the AFL.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 8:44 am 
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Vale 1953-2020
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Blue Vain wrote:
aboynamedsue wrote:
You're being very selective with your facts BV. There's plenty of examples of teams that have not followed the 'incremental improvement' theory (eg. Haw make Semi Finals in 2000 and then Prelim in 2001 and then don't play finals again until 2007; Freo make the Prelim in 2006 and then don't play finals again until 2010; St K lose a preliminary final by a kick in 2004 and don't make the GF until 2009; WB play in successive Prelims in 2008-2010 and go no further...the point is you can pull historical examples out to support almost any argument).


I agree. And thats what I'm asking others to do ABNS. Be selective with the facts.
Look at the injury correlation between Carlton in 2012, West Coast in 2010 and Collingwood in 2005. They didnt throw the baby out with the bathwater and demand a rebuild. They realised the impact injury had on their list and had the courage to stick fat. They were rewarded with instant improvement the following year.

We on the other hand caved in to the hysteria, sacked the coaching group and have radically revamped the playing style. :?
Yet 12 months earlier with a reasonable injury toll, we were 5 points off a prelim with a team that was 3rd youngest in the finals race from memory.

This team has the structure, ability and talent base to have success IMO. We just need an administration with half the courage and decision making skills we expect of the players.

I agree with most things you say BV, even in this thread. The only hole in your analysis is there is no explanation for the Port Adelaide and Gold Coast losses imo, and very little accounting for the Essendon* and St. Kilda ones either. I don't think injuries give the whole picture there.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:05 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Didnt see the game I only watched wookies replay- But if that is Micks Game plan we better start looking for a replacement now. dominated the first 15 minutes and the entire 2nd quarter should have been 40-50 points up at half time and the game should have been all over .
If we keep bombing it long down the line and into the forward 50 we are going to get smashed week in week out . Its the dumbest game plane there is going . I'm hoping its not what we are going to see in the season proper it will be devistating to watch they ball rebound out of the forward 50 over are heads time and time again

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:22 am 
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Ken Hunter
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You have to admit it will give you a certain satisfaction/enjoyment though

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:29 am 
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John Nicholls

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Sydney Blue wrote:
Didnt see the game I only watched wookies replay- But if that is Micks Game plan we better start looking for a replacement now. dominated the first 15 minutes and the entire 2nd quarter should have been 40-50 points up at half time and the game should have been all over .
If we keep bombing it long down the line and into the forward 50 we are going to get smashed week in week out . Its the dumbest game plane there is going . I'm hoping its not what we are going to see in the season proper it will be devistating to watch they ball rebound out of the forward 50 over are heads time and time again


I felt sick watching it too. It can't be the plan. Surely we were foxing. It looked like an old pagan plan where we kick long to a contest where we are outnumbered and the opposition spoil then run off with it and score easily on the counter. So Pagan. Very predictable.

Surely there is more to it. I am hoping we are just in a hard training phase and and could not run the plan properly so devised something else that was simple but not effective. More important to be fit as fiddles for the first month.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:36 am 
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Harry Vallence
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I am probably a "glass half full" sort of person so I generally think as far as Carlton is concerned that there is the makings of a very good side based on our current list and I do expect us to be a top 8 side this year.

Where we actually end up willl be influenced by, like it is for most teams, by the amount of momentum we can create over the course of the year. Winning, just like losing, can become a habit. If we can be 3-2 by Round 5 then I think we will be able to develop some very strong momentum as the season progresses.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:55 am 
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Stephen Silvagni
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club29 wrote:
Sydney Blue wrote:
Didnt see the game I only watched wookies replay- But if that is Micks Game plan we better start looking for a replacement now. dominated the first 15 minutes and the entire 2nd quarter should have been 40-50 points up at half time and the game should have been all over .
If we keep bombing it long down the line and into the forward 50 we are going to get smashed week in week out . Its the dumbest game plane there is going . I'm hoping its not what we are going to see in the season proper it will be devistating to watch they ball rebound out of the forward 50 over are heads time and time again


I felt sick watching it too. It can't be the plan. Surely we were foxing. It looked like an old pagan plan where we kick long to a contest where we are outnumbered and the opposition spoil then run off with it and score easily on the counter. So Pagan. Very predictable.

Surely there is more to it. I am hoping we are just in a hard training phase and and could not run the plan properly so devised something else that was simple but not effective. More important to be fit as fiddles for the first month.


bring back Ratts ?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 12:18 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Geeez five years and six weeks.. and some people want more of Ratts??

Thats one eliminational final.....

And of course the players wouldnt get over the top of WC... they couldnt overcome any hurdles thrown at them under the Ratts regime...

Most players had had enough of Ratts also....Especially the main group

So was never any chance of coming back from where he was at

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 12:41 pm 
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John Nicholls

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Rexy wrote:
club29 wrote:
Sydney Blue wrote:
Didnt see the game I only watched wookies replay- But if that is Micks Game plan we better start looking for a replacement now. dominated the first 15 minutes and the entire 2nd quarter should have been 40-50 points up at half time and the game should have been all over .
If we keep bombing it long down the line and into the forward 50 we are going to get smashed week in week out . Its the dumbest game plane there is going . I'm hoping its not what we are going to see in the season proper it will be devistating to watch they ball rebound out of the forward 50 over are heads time and time again


I felt sick watching it too. It can't be the plan. Surely we were foxing. It looked like an old pagan plan where we kick long to a contest where we are outnumbered and the opposition spoil then run off with it and score easily on the counter. So Pagan. Very predictable.

Surely there is more to it. I am hoping we are just in a hard training phase and and could not run the plan properly so devised something else that was simple but not effective. More important to be fit as fiddles for the first month.


bring back Ratts ?


Lets see how Malthouse goes first. I was lead to believe last year that it all had nothing to do with the players and all to do with the coach by the "realists" .

I am keen to see how that goes.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:56 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
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Rexy wrote:
club29 wrote:
Sydney Blue wrote:
Didnt see the game I only watched wookies replay- But if that is Micks Game plan we better start looking for a replacement now. dominated the first 15 minutes and the entire 2nd quarter should have been 40-50 points up at half time and the game should have been all over .
If we keep bombing it long down the line and into the forward 50 we are going to get smashed week in week out . Its the dumbest game plane there is going . I'm hoping its not what we are going to see in the season proper it will be devistating to watch they ball rebound out of the forward 50 over are heads time and time again


I felt sick watching it too. It can't be the plan. Surely we were foxing. It looked like an old pagan plan where we kick long to a contest where we are outnumbered and the opposition spoil then run off with it and score easily on the counter. So Pagan. Very predictable.

Surely there is more to it. I am hoping we are just in a hard training phase and and could not run the plan properly so devised something else that was simple but not effective. More important to be fit as fiddles for the first month.


bring back Ratts ?


Not for me but lets not reinvent the wheel. The team performed poorly last year with some mitigating circumstances.
We aren't a basket case that needs a total transformation.

For the record, I'm not against Malthouse bringing a longer kicking strategy but lets at least try to keep possession back of centre! Admittedly, Saturday night had little to with our long kicking though. We were demolished out of the middle so the weight of numbers was always going to hurt us.
Wiley needs to get his head in the job quickly. We've been a very good midfield unit for years now and our scoring from stoppages as been as good as most. Our midfield structures were woeful at times on the weekend so hopefully that can be rectified asap.
If we can control the midfield stoppages, we're a very potent team.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 4:48 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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We have a middle of the road list that is mature enough to do well if everything goes our way.

Unfortunately, there are a lot more clubs with mature lists this year than in 2011, for example.


Malthouse needs to work a miracle in getting the team to master a new game plan, and for that game plan to be suitable to handle the best that some very smart coaches will throw at it, all while requiring the players to develop the steel and culture to perform as a team at a high level consistently.

That is a very tall order. And it requires a healthy list and significant improvement in output from most of our senior players - Kreuzer, Hampson, Warnock, Yarran, Garlett, Judd, Gibbs, Jamison, Henderson, Waite, Laidler, Simpson, Walker; plus half a dozen young players need to make big strides, notably Lucas, Tuohy, Casboult, Bell, Watson.

It can be done and it has been done, but it's a long shot. And to say that we're due or "it's our time" or look at history and project from that is probably kidding oneself.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:55 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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aramari wrote:
We have a middle of the road list that is mature enough to do well if everything goes our way.

Unfortunately, there are a lot more clubs with mature lists this year than in 2011, for example.


Malthouse needs to work a miracle in getting the team to master a new game plan, and for that game plan to be suitable to handle the best that some very smart coaches will throw at it, all while requiring the players to develop the steel and culture to perform as a team at a high level consistently.

That is a very tall order. And it requires a healthy list and significant improvement in output from most of our senior players - Kreuzer, Hampson, Warnock, Yarran, Garlett, Judd, Gibbs, Jamison, Henderson, Waite, Laidler, Simpson, Walker; plus half a dozen young players need to make big strides, notably Lucas, Tuohy, Casboult, Bell, Watson.

It can be done and it has been done, but it's a long shot. And to say that we're due or "it's our time" or look at history and project from that is probably kidding oneself.


Yes. Its far easier for one to claim "we're a middle of the road list" and back it up with jack shit

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