Craig_Bradley wrote:
My old man was in a pessimistic mood like a lot on here, writing off our top four chances after our third loss of the year. He was looking over the fixtures for the Coasters and the Hawks, basically saying they'll win 7-8 each and we'll get stuck in Perth in week two of the finals ... if we even make it that far.
So - a little perspective.
The top four over the past four years have looked like this in terms of points:
2010 - 70, 68, 62, 56
2009 - 80, 72, 60, 60
2008 - 84, 68, 62, 52
2007 - 72, 60, 60, 56
Moral of the story is - with 9.5 wins already on the board and 9 games to go - we need 5 wins to push past the 14 wins barrier and, if recent history is worth anything at all, we'll finish top four. We need 5 out of 9. It's not a huge ask.
Plus, we have five games against bottom eight teams to go - Tigers, Dogs, Bombers (feels good!), Roos and Saints. Plus winnable games against the Hawks and the Dees. So whilst injuries and fatigue are a bit of a concern, it's still so much ours to lose. In fact, if we drop any of those games, it will be well and truly our fault.
Just trying to make those glasses look half-full, after a rough 24 hrs.
A win against the Tigers this week and we'll be back in the groove!
I think 15.5 will get us top 4, so 6 wins out of the last 9 shall do it.
Put it this way, if we beat Richmond and Hawthorn lose to Collingwood, we will be back in 3rd. Don't know why Hawthorn are home and dry for top 4 because they beat an insipid Essendon*.
Sides will drop games, history suggests Collingwood and Geelong will drop at least 1-2, 3rd usually wins no more than 16, 4th usually 15, and 5th I can't ever remember winning more than 15.
Still an awful long way to go, not everything will remain static personnel wise. Hawthorn's outs could hurt them against better opposition (no Rioli will hurt this week), Eagles have no real injuries at the moment, but if something happened to Cox, Glass or Kerr it would hurt them. Collingwood could lose this week, and if we win we are suddenly only 2 premiership points behind them.
If we lose to the Tigers though, we can then begin to panic.