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To start off I think the following are in contention for a recall (in order):
Armfield, Lucas, McLean, Thornton, Watson, Kerr
And the following are in contention for the chop (in order):
Joseph, Betts, Russell, Carrazzo, Gibbs, White, Hampson
I think the Swans will drop Sam Reid, and I'm unsure as to whether they will replace him with a tall or a small. They're fine up forward and in defence, but they may opt for a second ruckman and have Jesse White permanently in the forward 50.
LRT is in no danger of coming into the side, Pyke and Seaby are both a chance, while I'm unsure on the status of Lewis Johnston and Spangher.
With that in mind, I don't think that Sydney are going to be able to stretch us, and if they do it'll cost them elsewhere. On that logic, White stays in the team ahead of Watson. At the other end, Hampson has a huge opportunity to stretch them in their similarly short defence, provided he times his run at the ball effectively when leading. I think Walker will cause problems for anyone of Mattner, Kennelly and Richards, so he can effectively play as a tall in this line-up. Ditto Waite, who will probably be manned by Grundy if he's not on Hampson. With all of that in mind, you can put a line through Thornton for this week.
Through midfield, marking ability will come to the fore in the shoebox that is the SCG, as well as a propensity for quick hands and clean kicks over 25-40 m. Physical strength to compete with the Swans midfield is a plus, but I think the aforementioned criteria are more important. That makes Gibbs & Russell safe, puts Carrazzo & Joseph in the firing line, and brings Lucas right up the ranks. It also encourages us to release Murphy, Robinson, Judd & Scotland into more open midfield roles, bringing McLean into the mix.
Finally, I think Eddie's performance, while good, simply isn't good enough when we're crying out for play through midfield. Garlett made it all the way down to the defensive 50 at times against Adelaide, and has shown a willingness to push down to HB with regularity. Betts has barely made it past the wing in many games, and has got himself in marking contests at HB when he has.
I'm not saying we need small forwards who can double as wingman, but they need to take their turn in supporting the midfield as well as providing frontal pressure, and I don't think Eddie was up to scratch in that department. I think you can see the holes in his performance statistically:
5 kicks, 10 handballs, 4 inside 50s, 7 tackles, zero 1%ers, 7 contested possessions, 1 clearance, 1 free awarded (1 against), 3 marks, zero bounces, zero goal assists.
To me that says Eddie didn't play at stoppages except in the forward 50, didn't link up particularly much through midfield, didn't apply that much pressure on the oppositions run with his tackling, and work hard enough to get a break from his opponent in the middle in order to open up the game with some run and carry. It says he worked to be at the fall of the ball, but couldn't break away, resulting in a bunch of possessions in the clinches that fizzled into hot handpasses to team mates.
Compare that to Jeff:
9 kicks, 4 handpasses, 4 inside 50s, 1 rebound 50, 7 tackles, 2 1%ers, 6 contested possessions, zero clearances, 1 free awarded (2 against), 3 marks (1 inside 50), 1 goal, 2 behinds, 1 bounce, 1 goal assist.
More run, more aiding his team mates, more work through midfield and more chances on the scoreboard, without missing out on frontal pressure. All that, and in less possession of the ball.
My personal conclusion? Eddie is now regularly second to the football, or at least as his opponent directly on his tether. That's not good enough, and I think we should seriously look at Armfield to come in, provide the pressure, and apply himself as a midfield option when required. That also opens up an avenue for midfielders to rotate through the forward line.
In conclusion:
Out: Betts, Carrazzo, Joseph
In: Armfield, McLean, Lucas
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