Well if Barny goes down at the moment we have Prenda.,, assuming Longmuire wants to come to Carlton and we cant trade early picks thats the board rules.. how are we going to land him???
Not only will he help Fev out because he can take a contested mark and he is mobile but he can help French out...

Ots not like we need a very good CHF ruckman is it??
We can add him to what we have plus two top 6 picks .. hes only like 23... and we can start going forwards. why win 10 games get pick 9 (not elite but lets wait and see) when we can stock up???Were shit anyway!!!! Its not like were a gun side and im saying..hey stop everything.. lets not chase a premiership.. lets play the kids and have a crack at a couple more guns.. were in the bottom 4 list wise with clubs shooting past us..

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What Pagan should do is say look guys you got the next 7 games to show me you can win at least 4 of this games if not i'll be blooding the first year players.If we just win 1 game or 2 we will be 4 wins and a draw in 14 games with 8 games left and just play the kids.

I reckon he has something planed for the next 2 months he will make up his mind who is leaving at the end of the year by the end of those 2 months and it wont suprise me if he tells some ex stars they not needed next year if we came 13 ,14 or 15.

I would like to see a broader strategy than just 'lets go for top six picks'.

Sure give it a go if you want, just as long as it not the only thing we are relying on, on its own it is a plan that is only one shitty attitude and a chronicly injured player away from failing.

Over the last ten years:

Number 1 picks with premiership medals = 0
Number 2 picks with premiership medals = 1 (heffernan )
Number 3 picks with premiership medals = 0
Number 4 picks with premiership medals = 0
Number 5 picks with premiership medals = 0
Number 6 picks with premiership medals = 0

In other words of all the 60 players in the top 6 spots in the draft to have been picked up in the last ten years, only one has been able to make the BIG DIFFERENCE and help their side win a premiership.

Mediocrity has not turned into premiership glory on a regular basis yet.

Should our plan be longer than 10 years?

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sure there are risks with drafting... but if you happen to have a priority pick youre hedging your bets. (which is what smart investors do when they spread the risk over blue chip stock instead of going after the speculative it stocks for instance).. but then you also forget one major thing in those statistics you show.. whats your major source of bringing talent into the side???

the not so smart investor will just pick out a few speculative stocks and put their future in that.

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Pretty much what Tyrants said, picks in the 1st and 2nd round of the draft will bring talent into the side. Priority picks are nice if they come along but are not always a magical answer. We should try to trade to get some more picks in the top 30, does not really matter where but we need to be active in the first 2 rounds.

Geelong has had no trouble picking up good solid team players in the first 2 rounds of the draft.

Not disagreeing that priority picks is one way to succeed, but there are others as well. And if we do happen to win 8 or 9 games this year then we have to concentrate on getting as many picks in the first 2 rounds as we can.

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I dont support not trying and giving 100%...you cant expect to develop kids like walker and Simpson by doing that and you need to win games to keep the spirit in those kids.

I would like to see Russell, Hartlett(when fit), Bryan,Blackwell given some games through the year and blooded but probably not on mass together.
Its interesting that Collingwood, Essendon* and us are all in the same hole and I'll be watching with interest how the other two try and dig themselves out.....Pies played several new kids and got clobbered by Freo.....I reckon Mick might be going the play the kids on mass route....see who can play but really be looking at finishing bottom three and getting the early picks and having the cheque book ready..obviously Eddie and Mick have given the year away given the desperate attempt to lure Brown.....it also creates the illusion you are doing something off the field and diverts from the on field stuff...

I think we will get a top ten pick by normal means but we probably need another and that means trading for one.....

The results of this poll at the moment are...

Should we bottom out?
Yes
40% [ 27 ]
No
59% [ 40 ]

Total Votes : 67

Common...... let's get some more YES votes and present them to the Club so the boys know what needs to be done.

What a ridiculous thread. Who ever voted YES, you should be ashamed of yourselves. Wooden spoon would mean the club is in tormoil again with an even bleaker outlook than what we had in 2002. Is that what you relly want? In the long run what happened this weekend may turn out to be a good thing.

What they said!

How does the saying go? Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics: Let's do this analysis again in 5 years when StK, Geel and WCE have shared th eflags around!

Jarusa, doesn't Des Headland have a medal around his neck?

Great point, would be interesting to follow this for th eop 10

haha, yep he is the other one, now 2 out of 60.

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Must be nice to predict the future so accurately. What are the lotto numbers going to be this week?

btw Geelong has not had 1 pick in the top six in the last 10 years, so you will have to leave them out. Might stuff up your prediction.

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Jarusa, I think what Rod is saying is that it takes several years for sides to win flags after getting top picks in the draft for a year or two in a row. Stats show most top 5 picks in the draft make it to either become stars or regular senior players.

Of course, a lot depends on how well you trade, too. These variables and a thing in football called 'injuries' play a part, too.

Yeh, I know exactly what Rod is saying. I was surprised it took so long for someone to bring that point up.

I was just trying to show that top 6 picks do not necessarily guarantee a premiership. But that may get blown out of the water if St Kilda and Freo win the next 5 premierships. Then again it may not.

FWIW out of those 60 top picks in the last ten years this is how it breaks down for each club

Fremantle 7
StKilda 6
West Coast 5
Brisbane 5
Hawthorn 5
Western Bulldogs 5
Essendon* 4
Sydney 4
Richmond 4
Carlton 3
Melbourne 3
Port Adelaide 3
Fitzroy 2
Collingwood 2
Kangaroos 2
Geelong 0
Adelaide 0

Brisbane is interesting, out of their 5 top picks,
Rory Hilton
Luke Power
Des Headland
Damian Cupido
Jared Brennan

they have already traded away 3 of them.

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You wouldn't put too much money on Brennan staying for much longer either...

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Richard Pratt - A Carlton legend.

Why not?

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"You are being watched. The government has a secret system. A machine that spies on you every hour of every day. I know because I built it." - Finch

He's hardly set the world on fire. Lethal doesn't seem to have too much time for hugely talented, lowly motivated types (ie Headland).

Wouldn't be surprised to see him shopped around come seasons end.

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Richard Pratt - A Carlton legend.

Well he has been injured quite a lot (hasnt played since Rd 1 due to injury)

When he has played, he has set the world on fire. Still very young, and as we know, young footballers take time to develop (wiggo )

I'd love him at the blues

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"You are being watched. The government has a secret system. A machine that spies on you every hour of every day. I know because I built it." - Finch

Fair enough

I'm still smarting after the LA fiasco, not sure if I want another highly talented headcase (if that's the case with Brennan, not suggesting it is).

Time will tell I guess...

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Richard Pratt - A Carlton legend.

Never said anything about finishing last.
Just finishing in the bottom four so we are able to get our hands on two quality youngsters.

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Writer for SuperCoach Paige www.scpaige.com.au
Twitter - @johnfeeney24