cecil89 wrote:
Cripps kicked 6 goals in 20 games, that's not 0.7 per game. Kreuzer is also a tad under 0.7 with 9 goals in 13 games. Bell is no longer here.
You're asking for Kreuzer, Gibbs, Murphy, Boekhorst, Kerridge and Cripps to average a goal a game each to hit the 'pass mark' of 120 goals as a group. Call me a pessimist, but I don't think they'll get near that.
I was going off the AFL's stats page, so they may have rounded up some of the averages, and Cripps was an error on my part, he was right after Shuey in the table I was viewing and I must have counted Shuey's average against his.
That's still not a short list, and even the sides that have dominant forward groups (Hawthorn, West Coast and Sydney) still have a decent list of outside contributors.
Let's say the attacking midfield group is the following: Kreuzer, Kerridge, Buckley, Thomas, Murphy, Gibbs, Boekhorst, Graham and Cripps; 9 names.
Would 130 goals from those names, if they played all 22 games, be a ridiculous thing to expect in a successful season? Because that's about what I'm talking about, having settled into the maths and stats of it all.
That's working from the idea that the forward line isn't going to have multiple 40+ goal kickers, though that may happen in time. You're also hoping for 0.6/game from your better defenders like Tuohy and Docherty, then maybe a healthy 0.4 from Simpson and Byrne.
That leaves about 125 goals from the 'true' forward group of Wright, Casboult, Everitt, Walker and the one name we pick out of the rest, or about 25 goals a piece. If they outpace 1.2 goals per game per player, then the burden on the midfield and defence is lifted. If some of the others not mentioned (that would be regulars in the 22) bob up for a spare goal here or there, that's pressure taken off those expected to score.
If we're averaging 14 goals a game, we'll win more than we'll lose, especially with the new interchange rules. That's the long term target.