jimmae wrote:
Let me put this out there unequivocally:
Simpson played 82% of the game for 40 possessions. One number is way up on his usual, the other way down. Scotland was also just as effective statistically while being down on his usual TOG numbers.
How did this happen? Lucas being in the team supports their roles and provides another tireless runner in midfield. He managed 21 possessions from 77% game time (which are excellent numbers).
People excluding Lucas from the team and keeping Russell in his current form are boggling my mind. We have Duigan and Laidler to do what Russell does in defence, and we have Scotland, Carrazzo, Lucas & Simpson to exceed his output in midfield. It's just not his year, and we can run through the reasons (*coughMEDICALFITNESS&PHYSIOSTAFFcough*) ad nauseam another time.
Interesting stats to present in favour of keeping Lucas in, instead of Russell. Personally, I wouldn't credit his inclusion as the sole reason for Simmo having a night out - the Saints put zero time into him. I do agree Lucas adds even more pace and offensive ability to the team than Russell, which increases the personnel rotations we can have through those roles, but I don't think that's what we need, we have plenty of run. In addition, while Lucas was good in the first half vs the Saints, I thought he dropped away significantly in the second - I certainly wouldn't categorise him as a tireless runner just yet.
Russell's game to me was just as strong as Lucas' in terms of the statistics you want for a player in his role - 18 possies, 94% efficiency, 4 R50s, 3 tackles, 2 1%ers - I don't get those on here panning his form for the night. I think we want someone other than Yazz who has Russell's ability to play aggressively and use the ball well from deep in defence - Duigan struggles with his ball use, Laidler doesn't have the pace and Joey doesn't have the confidence.
And my general concern is that the biggest risk is that we fail like we did on Saturday night around the clearances and in getting belted in the tackle count - and when it comes to choosing between #2 and #9 on that basis, I'm preferring Russell. To me, it's an area of Lucas' game that just isn't there yet.
Accept that there's arguments for both but think Russell edges Lucas out at this point. Will be very interesting to see which way they go.