aboynamedsue wrote:
As a regular at VFL games, I've noticed for sometime now that Watson seems to get very harshly marked by TC posters in comparison to Mitchell. I think they are both similar in many ways - oversized juniors who both look good with the ball in their hands, but the rest of the time they don't appear to have the tools to play AFL. Mitchell actually seems slower and less agile than Watson. I don't think I've ever seen Mitchell cause a turnover or chase anybody down (as I've seen Casboult do). He struggles to get separation from his opponent so he won't take many uncontested marks in the AFL, and he hasn't shown that he's much of a contested mark threat either. And he's no good as a #2 ruckman. With the exception of kicking, Mitchell suffers considerably in comparison to Casboult at the same age. FWIW - Watson is a better VFL player than Mitchell by some distance at the moment, IMO.
I'm well aware of Watson's limitations, and he still gets taken apart at times in the VFL, but I'm prepared to give him another year to mature and see if an extra season under Malthouse makes a difference. If he can somehow improve his intensity to defend (fitness or mental issue?), his overall agility and his ability to collect ground balls below his knees, he could still make it. There's a number of "ifs" there, but I think he's worth another year. If you saw him in the VFL and he wasn't on our list, I think most of us would be very interested in him as a late draft pick or rookie pick. The problem is that he was a first round pick. That's not the player's fault though.
As for Mitchell, I know he's had injuries but, after 3 years on the list, he hasn't shown enough IMO. People will say "the delivery to him in the VFL is no good" - which is a valid point, but that's got nothing to do with his inability to put any real defensive pressure on the opposition and it's got nothing to do with the fact he hasn't been able to make himself into a viable #2 option in the ruck or in defence. Even if he isn't marking it as a forward, I'm concerned that he lacks the mobility to get to contests and spoil the opposition's loose man in defence. Opposition marks in our forward 50 are enough of a problem for us already. They will run off him too. I know this sounds harsh, but he looks to me like a one position player that is well short on the agility and endurance required to be a modern day AFL forward. Unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat in the last 6 weeks of the VFL season, I think he'll be delisted. In an ideal world, you might give him another year to develop too, but I don't think we can afford that luxury. Depending on who else is available and what we do with our list (ie. whether we can secure another tall forward via trade/draft), we might throw him a lifeline via the rookie draft.
McCarthy is line-ball, IMO. I've posted several times now that over the last 3 years he has rarely looked the part as a key defender. For a fairly big man (196cm & 93kg), he doesn't play tall. He played his best footy as a HF/Wing towards the end of last year under Harris. I can't see him making it as a HF/Wing in the AFL, so unless he can turn himself into that key defender we're crying out for, I think he's in big trouble. Injury has come at a bad time for him this season. He might have enough athletic attributes to buy him another season, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make the hard call on Pat too.
We've got about 6 weeks to reassess, but at this stage I think the following will be delisted:
Davies
Duigan
Joseph
Mitchell
Collins*
ROK*
Ellard, Laidler, McCarthy & White are four others that will be closely looked at, particularly if we need to make space on our list for trades and/or more draft picks, and Scotland may retire.
Hammer = trade bait. I'd keep him unless we can use him as part of a trade to address other needs. Who knows, he may end up being a very large pair of steak knives in a deal to get us pick #1? (eg. our first pick + Yarran + Hammer for pick #1 + GWS third round pick).
Nobody is 'untradeable', but I would be particularly surprised if the club doesn't suss out what interest is out there for Yarran, Jamo, Warnock & Robbo. You'd think all would have trade currency, especially Yarran.
Rational analysis ABNS.
I keep asking but seemingly no one has the answer: Are Watson, McCarthy and Mitchell contracted for next year?
Generally speaking first-year players get two years when picked up and another two years if re-contracted.
I know that doesn't have to be the rule but if the aforementioned are indeed subject to the standard, then they won't be de-listed.
McCarthy was chased by Port last year and we may have just offered him two years. In fact, I'd be surprised if he wasn't given two.
Mitchell may have been given only one year but that may depend as to how early Malthouse became part of the process through list discussions.
SENIOR:
Davies, Joseph and
Duigan can't survive.
ROOKIE:
Collins and I feel
Dale may be as good as gone.
Others that may look at being traded or even de-listed:
SENIOR:
Laidler. Just doesn't look as though he's in the good books for one reason and another and with McInnes taking up the third tall post and Bootsma favoured, there may be no choice for Laids.
White: As good a guy that he is and as good a pre-season he's had, it may just depend on what we may be looking for whether he survives or not.
Ellard: Out of sight, out of mind with Davey and he is out of contract now also. Similar to White.
ROOKIE:
O'Keeffe: Back into the NB team this week and as tough as it will be, he has some time to look good. MM really liked him through the pre-season.
Curnow: Wouldn't be surprised should we trade him.
Scotland must retire to make way.
I doubt Yarran will be on the table but there are others that may just be offered out.
One of the rucks will have to go. Both are contracted though so it may not be as easy as many may suggest.
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