Talking Carlton Index Lochie O'Brien Kerryn Harrington Lochie O'Brien Kerryn Harrington CFC Home CFC Membership CFC Shop CFC Fixture Blueseum
It is currently Tue May 06, 2025 11:44 pm

All times are UTC + 10 hours




Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 2764 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120 ... 139  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 11:45 pm 
Offline
Harry Vallence

Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2007 11:51 am
Posts: 1291
Blue Vain wrote:
ColourMan wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
ColourMan wrote:
Dow is our best clearance player and our most durable mid.


You've posted it a couple of times now. Based upon which measures is Dow our best clearance player?



Jake’s post from the Paddy Dow thread…

“Some interesting stats on Dow which show his effectiveness at centre bounces.

Dow is already 4th at Carlton for Centre Clearances, only 2 behind Hewett in 3rd. This is despite only playing 4 full games (5 more as sub)

Even more impressive, he has the best rate of Centre Clearances per Centre Bounce Attendances at the club, and by some distance.

Dow has 20 CC's from 99 CBA's. so 20% of the centre bounces he attends he gets a clearance.

The next best are
Kennedy - 14% (18 from 131)
Cripps - 13% (55 from 426)
Cerra - 13% (34 from 259)
Docherty - 9% (11 from 126)
Hewett - 8% (22 from 274)
TDK - 8% (16 from 272)

Interestingly, Fog is also right up there with 19%, but its such a small sample size (6 from 31)

This kind of sums up what the Dow believers have always seen in him. He has the ability to read the play off the ruck contest, get hands on he ball, and then has an elite burst of pace and sidestep to get separation and avoid the tackle, resulting in a succesful clearance. These are the unique strengths which make him elite in this part of the game.

As long as he is working on his deficiencies and improving them, which appears to be the case, I think we need to hang on to him. The ability to win the ball from the centre bounce is too valuable to just let him go. I think most would be surprised to learn he's winning 50% more centre clearances than all our other mids, including Cripps.”


I'm a fan of Dow but being "our best clearance player" extends well beyond centre clearances. In our finals matches there was an approximate average of 5 centre clearances per quarter. So let's give Paddy his one possession based on the stats you provided. There's 4 possessions per game assuming he plays a full game which he rarely does.
There are also around 48 stoppage clearances per game. Dow averages 1.8. That is his downfall. Take him away from the centre bounce and his contribution drops away significantly. So suggesting he is our best clearance player is misrepresentation of the stats IMHO. Dow and others get clearance opportunities because Cripps is tagged and/or double teamed at many stoppages. And yet Cripps still averages 4.2 stoppage clearances per game.
The best players have multiple strings to their bow. Hewett can put the clamps on opposition mids. Cerra wins a lot more ball and uses it significantly better. Walsh is an elite runner. Dow's issue has always been that he offers good centre square value but little else. I'd be happy to keep him but I doubt we will. IMHO, he's not in our best 5 midfielders. The club have persevered trying to get him to add to his game but he hasn't been able to.


You talk about misrepresentation yet quote an average for Dow knowing full well that he’s often been the unactivated sub (or particularly under DT) spent little or no time in a midfield role even when he was played.

Dow’s centre clearance numbers
PA (sub) 2
WC. 4
Pies (sub 33% tog). 3
Saints 4
Demons 3
Suns 4
Giants 4

Since you brought up the finals, Cerra’s centre clearance numbers
Swans 0
Demons 2
Lions. 0

Hewitt’s centre clearance numbers
Swans 1
Demons 0
Lions 2

Happy to provide more stats I.e., Secondary Clearances, Score Involvements, Clangers

IMHO, he’s a better midfielder than Hewitt and Kennedy, and offers something different to Cerra. He’s also more durable than almost all of them and a better mover than most of them.

You used Hewitt as an example of a player with multiple strings to the bow!!

I’m not sure what you’re referring to with your last sentence. He has been outstanding in the State League, ramped up his possessions and become a goal kicker. He’s always been professional, and when selected at AFL level, he performed…

I agree Cripps gets all the opposition attention, and rightly so, he’s our superstar! However Cripps and Dow (in a supporting role) did combine very effectively together…

And that Dow will be elsewhere…


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 11:54 pm 
Offline
Robert Walls
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:29 pm
Posts: 3844
Location: Canberra Town!
I'd rather keep fisher than pick 40+ unless it's all about stock piling points for the campo twins next year - but I'd worry about that next year as they will likely change the rules anyway.

fisher is good depth at worst

retain unless we get an offer that satisfies. pick 19 from the swans seems perfect if Norf want to be considered decent trading partner during their rebuild.



Sent from my SM-A336E using Tapatalk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:06 am 
Offline
Robert Walls
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:29 pm
Posts: 3844
Location: Canberra Town!
peabody wrote:
killpies wrote:
peabody wrote:
On trade returns, I think we would be doing very well if we can get a 3rd rounder for either of Dow or Fisher. More likely to see early 4th, pick swaps or futures.

It is only natural to want to see a return on our draft investment, but we have very little leverage with players so clearly out of our best 22. What leverage we do have isn't worth using for the very minor pick upgrades it might net us.

I am more frustrated with the lack of development we put into them, and also with the rationale behind their drafting in the first place. Dow, LOB, SPS, Stocker, Setterfield etc all walked into the club with the same glaring deficiencies they walked out with. You don't get 2nd round picks in exchange for players like that.

A player with 2 yrs to run and 100 games under his belt, being offered a 4 +1 yr contract. You don't get much more leverage than that


Yes, and that is why we will get something in return for Fisher (cf. Dow).

It still won't be that much. We can threaten to Fisher hostage in the VFL to squeeze the maximum return out of North. But even then we're talking moving a couple of places up the draft (maybe future late 3rd to mid-early 3rd round).

But that stance carries risks as well as potential rewards, notably the corrosive effect of having a player at the club who desperately doesn't want to be there. Players take notice of that sort of treatment.

I don't think the coaching staff rate him in our best 28. We should be happy with any return we can get.
Fish has been nothing but professional and was even quoted as loving the group and the club by his manager while they were softening the public before the official trade request . either way it's already done. no way we allow a medical if he's "required". pretty sure it's next years we might give u a pick but still take it away Barnaby French piik

Sent from my SM-A336E using Tapatalk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 7:40 am 
Offline
Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17943
ColourMan wrote:
IMHO, he’s a better midfielder than Hewitt and Kennedy, and offers something different to Cerra. He’s also more durable than almost all of them and a better mover than most of them.


A better mover? What does that even mean? He has a better running gait? No bone vibration? I'm tipping 17 other clubs would take Cerra before Dow and throw in a first rounder for good measure. What he offers different to Cerra is poor ball use and poor decision making. That's not a positive.

I'm not here to bag Paddy Dow. I like the kid and would like to see him succeed in Navy Blue. But suggesting he's our best clearance player and better than Kennedy, Hewett and comparable to Cerra is very difficult to justify. And using that as an opportunity to bag the club and the football department is poor form IMHO. They've given Paddy years of opportunities and I have no doubt they'd love to see him succeed. But he hasn't. It's in his best interests to see if he can improve in another environment.

_________________
Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.


Last edited by Blue Vain on Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 8:23 am 
Offline
Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 2:15 pm
Posts: 21399
Location: North of the border
Cunningham , Sam Durdin and Marchbank have all signed on for next year

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/14472 ... -the-blues

_________________
If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:27 am 
Offline
Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17943
Sydney Blue wrote:
Cunningham , Sam Durdin and Marchbank have all signed on for next year

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/14472 ... -the-blues


:thumbsup:

Glad they kept Durdin. I thought he was a good chance to be delisted.

_________________
Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:38 am 
Offline
Rod Ashman
User avatar

Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:05 pm
Posts: 2698
Sydney Blue wrote:
Cunningham , Sam Durdin and Marchbank have all signed on for next year

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/14472 ... -the-blues



Happy with all of that.

GO BLUES!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:42 am 
Offline
Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
Same. Marchy and DC were able to get back on the park. Marchy improved as he once again picked up the pace of AFL footy. DC started well but dropped off yet has some traits we lack - breakaway speed, clean hands, composed and generally good user off both feet.
S.Durdin very handy depth player.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:48 am 
Offline
John Nicholls

Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 12:18 pm
Posts: 9608
Location: Australia
Hopefully a full pre season will see Cuningham last all the way through next year.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 10:03 am 
Offline
Bruce Doull
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:06 pm
Posts: 35660
Location: Half back flank
Drewgirl wrote:
Im sorry but i find it bull that we have no leverage and we just let him walk where he wants. He will only be a free agent if we delist him and that would be just silly. If by logic all out of contract players just walk to the clubs of their choice then why have a trade period. True Dow can walk in the pre season draft but thats on him as someone else may take him before he gets to where he wants.

So if he is not willing to work with us and get traded, i would chuck him in the draft and he can take his chances.

So Mr Dow, there is West Coast, North Melbourne, Hawthorn etc that may snap you up before St Kilda.

We trade for everyone. We wanted to trade for Jack Martin but Gold Coast didnt want to at the time as they were being stubborn. We risked it and got him in the end but that doesnt always work.



Sam Edmund just said it'll be St Kilda, & there will be a trade. And his mail is normally pretty good.

_________________
#DonTheStash


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 10:11 am 
Offline
Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
The bloke running/moderating the chat on the foxsports website reckons we'd get aints pick in 30s for Dow but will be a lot of back and forth and wont get done till late.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 10:42 am 
Offline
Stephen Kernahan
User avatar

Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:08 pm
Posts: 16771
Location: Melbourne
Blue Vain wrote:
Sydney Blue wrote:
Cunningham , Sam Durdin and Marchbank have all signed on for next year

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/14472 ... -the-blues


:thumbsup:

Glad they kept Durdin. I thought he was a good chance to be delisted.


:thumbsup: 1 year to prove he can play AFL.

Regards Cazzesman

_________________
Ricky Gervais - “Everyone has the right to hold whatever beliefs they want. And everyone else has the right to find those beliefs f***ing ridiculous.”


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:06 am 
Offline
Craig Bradley
User avatar

Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:09 pm
Posts: 6047
I’m pleased with one year deals for Cunningham & Marchbank. S Durdin could have gone either way IMO (27 y.o. who has played one game in two years) but they obviously see something in him.

_________________
It's never as good as it looks and it's never as bad as it seems.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:10 am 
Offline
Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:26 pm
Posts: 4719
Location: Parliament House, Canberra
The Swans have cash to splash and if Paddy has told us he’d be willing to go there then we can tell SOS that Sydney will trade for him so if you want him, hand an ok pick over.

SOS works for St Kilda now. He is the enemy as far as I am concerned and we should not be doing him any favours nor do I expect Austin to either.

_________________
"A good composer does not initiate. He steals."

- Igor Stravinsky


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:13 am 
Offline
Bruce Doull
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:06 pm
Posts: 35660
Location: Half back flank
Don't the Swans already have their hands full with Jordan, Adams, & Grundy?

Sent from my Nokia G21 using Tapatalk

_________________
#DonTheStash


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:50 am 
Offline
Serge Silvagni

Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:31 pm
Posts: 932
Marchbank and Cuningham deserving of one year extensions given their resurrections. If (and I know it’s the massive if), they can both get proper pre seasons in, they should go up a level next year. Cuningham especially looked tired after 11-12 consecutive games which he may never have done in his career.

Haven’t seen much of S Durdin but he’s cheap key position depth / insurance that could come in if needed. I’m ok with him getting another year given the drop off from Young.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:03 pm 
Offline
Ken Hunter
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 9:02 pm
Posts: 13155
Location: Melbourne
One year is sufficient for Cunningham and Marchbank based on their history and their form.

Also surprised re S Durdin but perhaps they figure if Cunningham and Marchbank can get back out there so can be.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:30 pm 
Offline
Ken Hunter
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 8:32 am
Posts: 10471
Sydney Blue wrote:
Cunningham , Sam Durdin and Marchbank have all signed on for next year

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/14472 ... -the-blues


:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:57 pm 
Offline
formerly Fevola

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:57 pm
Posts: 4744
No. Its a fake account.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:57 pm 
Offline
formerly Fevola

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:57 pm
Posts: 4744
No. Its a fake account.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 2764 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120 ... 139  Next

All times are UTC + 10 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 137 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group