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I'll have another crack at a preview....
B: Laidler Jamison Duigan
Reckon Duigan has taken the mantle of our number 1 midsized defender from Russell, for a varying amount of reasons. Who he takes is going to be a tough call. I'd like to see him given the job on O'Keefe, however, Longmire has O'Keefe rotating out of centre half forward and the guts with Goodes with regularity throughout the match. Goodes = way too tall, quick and clever for Duigan. If we're dilligent enough with our matchups, Duigan to O'Keefe, and Laidler to Goodes when they alternate up forward, and the other one takes Trent Dennis-Lane, who according to reports will be rushed back. Don't forget the elimination final last year, when he bobbed up and kicked 4 on Bower who paid him no respect, and smashed us.
Jamo has smashed White the last two times they've met. Three goals in two games. I'm assuming he stays in the side for team balance reasons alone, rather than his lack of form, for reasons I'll expand on later on.
HB: Joseph Watson Yarran
In an ideal world of due dilligence, the match committee would have decided last week when picking Joseph that he serves a purpose beyond one week, rather than selecting him to play 30 minutes of football off the bench as a sub only.
Logic dictates, the sub doesn't play as the sub two weeks running, unless they are going to play that role all year (see: Rohan, Gary; Gaff, Andrew). His last two games against Sydney have seen a nothing role in the elimination final, and being touched up by McGlynn at Etihad before that. I'd like to see him get the job on Rhys Shaw, who has carved us up playing up forward the last two times we've played, and deserves more respect/time put into him.
Watson comes in ahead of a relatively unlucky White. Watson's kicking on such a short ground, and ahead of an anticipated flood should be a must have. Put him on Reid. Yarran I anticipate will be right to go, play him off Jetta, and make him accountable. If we can get that matchup, I'd be rapt. More realistically, I expect one of their plethora of defensive forwards to go to him instead.
C: Simpson Ellard Scotland
Simpson is another player that the Swans love to tag, I'd even go as far to say they look to limit him ahead of Judd when looking over their matchups. He usually got Kirk, so I assume Jude Bolton will go to him, in theory. On the other hand, I think it can be argued that by sacrificing their most in-form midfielder to play a defensive role on Selwood the other night, would have cost them the game. Does Longmire learn from that and keep Bolton away from run-with roles, or does he pay the due respect to one of our few midfielders who can kick goals over the flood on a short ground?
Ellard will go head to head with McGlynn, and am really looking forward to seeing those two go at it. Scotland might come under consideration for a specific role than his usual roaming tendencies. When we got smashed by the Swans at Etihad last year, I thought Scotland's game on Malceski had merit as a defensive forward. As another one more than handy around goal from 40-50, give him a job on a returning Kennelly?
HF: Russell Waite Gibbs
I think moving Russell to a defensive forward position is a positive one, it alleviates our current issues against attacking small defenders running rings around us, and Duigan is in decent enough form to allow it as no big loss to our backline. Keep Mattner honest off half back and it's a win for us.
Waite will get Grundy, should be a good match up. A good test for Waite to see if he's prepared to run hard enough to be a quality key forward. Grundy isn't an elite athlete or a speed merchant by any stretch, but he goes all day, and is prepared to gut run to provide drive off half back.
Gibbs is a frustrating one. He's not going to get dropped, but geez, the effort and application just aren't anywhere near it. On the other hand, haven't really got anyone to play on Goodes when he goes into the midfield. That in itself is a real headache. Goodes has towelled up Gibbs the last two games, yet before it Gibbs beat him the two, perhaps even three games before that. Not a believer in the idea that dropping players for the sake of a "wake up call" works for everyone. Some nuffies might point to Dal Santo being dropped by Lyon, but it's apples to oranges. Gibbs' current problem is an inability to work himself into the game, and get to enough contests. Running with Goodes can only be a positive for that problem.
F: Betts Walker Garlett
Here's your real Betts acid test. Don't think he's ever had a good game against the Swans. Here's his real opportunity to show that he can contribute when it matters. Another one I don't necessarily believe is going to get anything out of playing in the Bullants, as he'll kick bags against crap opposition, but continue to go missing when it matters, which you aren't going to rectify at VFL level. Having said that, I'd advocate dropping him on the basis that he's no longer in our best 22. Smith has kept him basically kickless the last two games, and Ratt's post game presser says to me that he'll play again.
If we can get Walker playing deep on Everitt, it's a real win for us I think. Don't think he has the football smarts to play deep as a tall defender, which may instead see Ted Richards go to Walker instead, and Everitt play higher up the ground....if that's the case, Russell should go with him.
Garlett is an interesting one. Do the Swans put Smith on him instead of Betts? Wouldn't bank against it. I reckon the conditions could suit young Jeffrey. Reckon he remembers that set shot he had to level the scores last year too....
R: Warnock Judd Murphy
Watching the Sydney/Geelong game the other week, it was interesting to note that neither side went in with a second ruckman. Sydney had White pinchhit, whilst Geelong were prepared to use Bartel at times, with Mooney doing the work when the game was done and dusted. As such, I think we can say goodbye to Hampson for this week, and let Warnock go head to head with Mumford. Problem is, by going with such a small forward line, I might have hamstrung myself in who backs him up. Waite I guess? Some sort of inner-Pagan in me would like to see Gibbs given a go also...Laidler plays taller than he is, and I don't think their forward line is that tall to see him missed too much for brief spells, especially if he goes into the ruck when White does. It's a risk I'd be willing to take on such a small ground. Judd will resume his battle with Jack, and Murph will go head to head with McVeigh. We win those two battles, we win the game, I reckon.
INT. Carrazzo, Armfield, Curnow, McLean (sub)
A plethora of midfield options there, and I reckon we'll need every one of them. Carrots should take Josh Kennedy, who's been in ripper form for the Swans this year, and a real underrated ingredient in their success over the last two years. Armfield needs to play, even without the great performance in the Ants. I rate Ratts' ability to man manage, and I reckon giving Dennis the challenge to rectify his costly mistake in last year's elimination final will be on the to do list this week. Would like to see Curnow given the task of running with Bolton, attempting to get Simpson as free as possible.
McLean would be a great sub for this week, in what I anticipate to be some fairly ordinary conditions. Use him how Hawthorn have used Jordan Lewis on occasion this season, and I reckon he could add a bit around the packs. Robbo gets an extended rest, as I reckon he's in need of one. The form is there, but from a man management perspective, wouldn't be too bad to give him a rest this week, and a run in the Ants over the bye weekend also.
In conclusion, I don't think we'll win, but I find we match up surprisingly well on paper. If we play Hampson, I reckon the game is lost already. Tall forwardlines at the SCG don't work. For us to snatch what would be a remarkable win, Gibbs needs to come to play, you want Betts making the most of his opportunities, and in terms of general KPIs, we match them in the contested footy and clearance counts. Our possession to goal ratio is as low as it can be, and our forwards are willing to work hard to create space up on the flanks for blokes willing to back themselves in to slot goals from 40-50.
In: Watson, McLean, Armfield
Out: White, Hampson, Robinson
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BLUES 2010: PAV AND JUDD = FLAGS. DOING IT FOR THE LOVE OF DICK PRATT.
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