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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:52 am 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Sun Nov 26, 2006 8:34 pm
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AIRCAV wrote:
whats all the fuss? The writing was on the wall for Swan in 2009. He's had 4 more possessions than that year. He was one of the favourites for the Brownlow. And scored 12 votes.

And as for the current obsession that you can't get 3 if your team wins, then how the heck did a plethora of blokes from bottom sides win Brownlows?



Bob Skilton played his first final in his last game (1st semi 1970) but won 3 Brownlows prior to 1970. And to my mind he deserved every one of them.

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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:54 am 
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Rod McGregor
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Dane Swans father Bill Swan played for Carlton U19's 1973-1974
Got on the Senior list, but Somehow did'nt play in the seniors, and became a brilliant VFL player.



.


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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:08 am 
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Harry Vallence
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The media get sucked into the Collingwood hype as if only Swan played well in 2010.
The Chaz is basically a tally of B.O.G.'s not overall consistency.
Hence why Gaz and Juddy poll well, they change games not ice cakes.
Basically Selwood's votes cost Gaz, and Pendelbury cost Swan, but luckily for Juddy his team mates were either basically average or in Simmo's case out of fashion with the umps.
Gaz is a monty for a Brownlow at GC.

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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:14 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Sun May 22, 2005 11:58 pm
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Location: South Yarra
Bookie wrote:
The media get sucked into the Collingwood hype as if only Swan played well in 2010.
The Chaz is basically a tally of B.O.G.'s not overall consistency.
Hence why Gaz and Juddy poll well, they change games not ice cakes.
Basically Selwood's votes cost Gaz, and Pendelbury cost Swan, but luckily for Juddy his team mates were either basically average or in Simmo's case out of fashion with the umps.
Gaz is a monty for a Brownlow at GC.


Yep. THe media awards are mostly scored in the "best players score out of 10" format. The best player generally gets 8 votes, the 5th best gets 6 votes. THe 3-2-1 system is much more heavily biased towards the BOG. And should the BOG get 300% the votes that the 3rd best player gets? The Age award gives approx 33% weighting between best and 5th best. And probably only 14% between best and 3rd best. That's a massive difference.

It basically means if you poll in the most games you're very likely to win the award. Plus if you're deemed 4th or 5th best you're minimally worse off than if you're BOG. The Brownlow ignores 4th or 5th. The Brownlow is not a good measure of consistency.

It's not the only factor, but it's a pretty strong one. Surprised this difference hasn't been mentioned in the media, instead of Whately embarrassing himself...


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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:14 am 
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Rod Ashman
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doofdoof wrote:

ya missed too predictable


But we were predictable in that we smashed nearly every team we came up against. The best kind of predictable.


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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:54 pm 
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Serge Silvagni

Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 10:26 am
Posts: 939
You don't have to be too smart to see that Swan got shafted by Pendelberry. They almost shared the Collingwood vote. That is the system and has been forever. Tough luck Dane. Don't blame Judd - blame the system.
However, the Brownlow is a farce - as it is the midfield medal - and the voting system needs to be revised to reward the best player, not just the best on ball player. Some years it may or may not get the right result, but I would suggest that some of the greatest players the game has ever seen (Ablet, Lockett, Dunstall, Silvagni, Carey etc.) were far better players & more deserving Brownlows than midfielders like Shane Wowodin & Libba. The medal should go to the best player - not the best on ball player. Does anyone disagree ??


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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:12 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:30 pm
Posts: 4584
Location: Blisstonia.
Quote:
Yep. THe media awards are mostly scored in the "best players score out of 10" format. The best player generally gets 8 votes, the 5th best gets 6 votes. THe 3-2-1 system is much more heavily biased towards the BOG. And should the BOG get 300% the votes that the 3rd best player gets? The Age award gives approx 33% weighting between best and 5th best. And probably only 14% between best and 3rd best. That's a massive difference.

It basically means if you poll in the most games you're very likely to win the award. Plus if you're deemed 4th or 5th best you're minimally worse off than if you're BOG. The Brownlow ignores 4th or 5th. The Brownlow is not a good measure of consistency.

It's not the only factor, but it's a pretty strong one. Surprised this difference hasn't been mentioned in the media, instead of Whately embarrassing himself..


This.

Amazing how it's taken a dribbler like Judd to win Brownlow for people to be questioning it's merits.

Also doesn't matter about whose had most tackles, possessions, clearences for the entire year etc etc.

A Judd best on ground vs a Swan best on ground is worth the same amount of votes.

A Swan 4th or 5th best on ground, vs a Judd 'he woz shit, got taged, kicking wos woful1!!11' game is also worth the same amount of votes.

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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:45 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
Posts: 2760
I reckon there's a 'degree of difficulty' factor that the umpires include but is largely excluded from the media who weight their views and votes more heavily based on the stats after the fact (or as referred to during the game).
so, the umps see 2 guys hanging on to judd or ablett or selwood crashing through 4 players to emerge with the ball and dish off a handball to advantage. if an opposition player gets it, it will be deemed 'ineffective' and will be valued less than swan's handball receive and kick under less pressure to a teammate in the clear.
but the umps put more value on the harder task, moreso than the polish on the end.

that is also why libba can win the award when he stops paul kelly or greg williams. and why it's harder for key forwards who may dominate with 12 possessions, 8 marks and 8 goals. (although, i reckon reiwoldt is the type of forward who can win a brownlow b/c of how hard he works for it. brown too except for his injuries ruining his consistency.)

and yes, pendlebury and selwood cost swan and ablett votes. but they also helped collingwood and geelong win at least 30% more matches which gives them an advantage over judd which pretty much cancels out his 'no-teammates' advantage.

and 3aw also gave judd player of the year award.


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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:44 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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I reckon Judd is simply the better player of the two....is more explosive and catches the umps eyes much more as most of the time he is the guy bursting away from a clearance with the ball....

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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 6:10 am 
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Harry Vallence
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JUDD

I still can't believe he is playing for Carlton.

Next 3 years are going to be huge.

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 Post subject: Re: Judd vs Swan (Stats)
PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 1:31 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:49 am
Posts: 1650
Thought Judd had a better game than Swan last Saturday :thumbsup:


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