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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 2:23 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Crusader wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
Crusader wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
2 or 3, honestly I'd be fine with either.

1 is OK in principle but not going to happen given the shortage of list spots and because we're in the window.

edit: by top 5, I assume you mean pick #3. Points value of 12+14 is already 200 more than #3, any lower than #3 and we are getting absolutely reamed so there'd have to be something else worthwhile coming back

Sit on the other side of the table for a second. Would you move back a dozen spots in this draft for 200 points?


I don't understand the question. We'd be giving WCE two picks in the first round of a quality draft to facilitate their rebuild. Or we use them ourselves. No need to pay overs - which would be doing to the tune of 400 points (pick 42) or 600 points (pick 31) if we traded up to #4 or #5 respectively. Those would be stupid moves.

In this scenario, we want to move up more than than they want to move down.

There has to be a cost for that. Have a look at the Scum-Dees trade.

It cost the Dees roughly 110pts (pick 63) for that deal (F3 based on the Scum finishing 11th in 2025, if they finish lower it's less - break even is they finish 17th).


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 2:58 pm 
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Craig Bradley

Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:04 pm
Posts: 7477
Location: Bendigo
Sidefx wrote:
Crusader wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
Crusader wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
2 or 3, honestly I'd be fine with either.

1 is OK in principle but not going to happen given the shortage of list spots and because we're in the window.

edit: by top 5, I assume you mean pick #3. Points value of 12+14 is already 200 more than #3, any lower than #3 and we are getting absolutely reamed so there'd have to be something else worthwhile coming back

Sit on the other side of the table for a second. Would you move back a dozen spots in this draft for 200 points?


I don't understand the question. We'd be giving WCE two picks in the first round of a quality draft to facilitate their rebuild. Or we use them ourselves. No need to pay overs - which would be doing to the tune of 400 points (pick 42) or 600 points (pick 31) if we traded up to #4 or #5 respectively. Those would be stupid moves.

In this scenario, we want to move up more than than they want to move down.

There has to be a cost for that. Have a look at the Scum-Dees trade.

It cost the Dees roughly 110pts (pick 63) for that deal (F3 based on the Scum finishing 11th in 2025, if they finish lower it's less - break even is they finish 17th).

Assuming Dees finish 8th & Scum finish 9th…

Dees:
2024 picks 28, 40, 46, 54, 65 = 1,747 points
2025 pick 11 = 1,205 points
Total - 2,952 points

Scum:
2024 pick 9 = 1,468 points
2025 pick 46 = 134 points
Total - 1,602 points

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 3:15 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:50 am
Posts: 1221
I think what these deals show is that higher picks are valued more by clubs than same value in lower pick points. That's what they have changed the system next year.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 3:52 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Posts: 6934
sinbagger wrote:
17th Premiership wrote:
If we could have any trade outcome from here, what do we prefer of the three most likely scenarios?
1) Take 12 & 14 to the draft
2) Get Houston and take one of 12 or 14 to the draft (and let’s be honest, in this scenario, we will end up trading 12 and keeping 14)
3) Upgrade 12 and 14 to a top 5 pick?


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You already listed them in the order that I'd prefer, and I'd really NOT prefer option 3


yeah same ... chasing high draft picks feels like how we spent the first 2 decades of this century doing. and that alone, is not a plan for a flag.

houston gives us a big need and fills a big hole. two late round 1st round picks to bring in some ready made players, a mid ready to go and a small forward would be good too. That berry kid looks good.

but man ... chasing a top pick, a cousin of walsh etc etc sounds like we've watched that movie before. murphy, gibbs, kruez etc all these can't miss kids who were gong to bring us a flag.

we're closer right now to flag and imo, should be topping up the list in areas where we're short to go over the top.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 3:55 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2013 2:16 pm
Posts: 14344
Location: Sydney
Crusader wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
Crusader wrote:
GreatEx wrote:
2 or 3, honestly I'd be fine with either.

1 is OK in principle but not going to happen given the shortage of list spots and because we're in the window.

edit: by top 5, I assume you mean pick #3. Points value of 12+14 is already 200 more than #3, any lower than #3 and we are getting absolutely reamed so there'd have to be something else worthwhile coming back

Sit on the other side of the table for a second. Would you move back a dozen spots in this draft for 200 points?


I don't understand the question. We'd be giving WCE two picks in the first round of a quality draft to facilitate their rebuild. Or we use them ourselves. No need to pay overs - which would be doing to the tune of 400 points (pick 42) or 600 points (pick 31) if we traded up to #4 or #5 respectively. Those would be stupid moves.

In this scenario, we want to move up more than than they want to move down.

There has to be a cost for that. Have a look at the Scum-Dees trade.


OK fair enough, but as I forgot to mention in my initial post, they want our #14 pick for the Baker trade. So I'd be disappointed if we took the German nuclear power plant owner approach (Simpsons reference, not political comment!).


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 4:00 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Location: Half back flank
If Haw give WCE futures for Barrass, can't WCE use them for Baker?

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 4:14 pm 
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Craig Bradley

Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:04 pm
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Location: Bendigo
CK95 wrote:
If Haw give WCE futures for Barrass, can't WCE use them for Baker?

They can try.

Tigers are looking to enter the record books for posturing this year.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 4:22 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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I hear they're still in the box seat for Judd...

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 4:58 pm 
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formerly Fevola

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:57 pm
Posts: 4747
Very reliable poster on BF reckons we are most likely getting pick 3 from WestCoast now. Could be done by tommorow morning.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 5:41 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2013 2:16 pm
Posts: 14344
Location: Sydney
Crusader wrote:
CK95 wrote:
If Haw give WCE futures for Barrass, can't WCE use them for Baker?

They can try.

Tigers are looking to enter the record books for posturing this year.


Pisses me off that they're holding out for 10 & 11 for Bolton when 10 & 18 is already on the table. Greedy bastards. He ain't all that without Dusty clearing the path.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 5:47 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Drewgirl wrote:
Very reliable poster on BF reckons we are most likely getting pick 3 from WestCoast now. Could be done by tommorow morning.
I'd like Houston in our side, but Finn O'Sullivan would give us nine more years than Houston.

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 Post subject: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 6:33 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 2:15 pm
Posts: 21416
Location: North of the border
Trade period is the most boring time of the year. It drags on to long

2 week pissing comp

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 6:36 pm 
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John Nicholls
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Posts: 9354
“12 and 14 for pick 3 and an early 20’s in a three-way. Possible Carlton player involved.”

Touted as a done deal… we’ll see

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 6:46 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:55 pm
Posts: 6363
Crusader wrote:

Assuming Dees finish 8th & Scum finish 9th…

Dees:
2024 picks 28, 40, 46, 54, 65 = 1,747 points
2025 pick 11 = 1,205 points
Total - 2,952 points

Scum:
2024 pick 9 = 1,468 points
2025 pick 46 = 134 points
Total - 1,602 points

I missed they traded a future 1st also.............wow!
The Dodo has been holding the scum back.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 6:47 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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"Intriguing"

GO BLUES!


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 6:50 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Posts: 6363
malbi wrote:
Drewgirl wrote:
Very reliable poster on BF reckons we are most likely getting pick 3 from WestCoast now. Could be done by tommorow morning.
I'd like Houston in our side, but Finn O'Sullivan would give us nine more years than Houston.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

I thought I read somewhere the Tigers were heavily into him for pick 1.


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 Post subject: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 6:52 pm 
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Bert Deacon

Joined: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:11 pm
Posts: 589
I'm sure it's not going to come to this, but Geelong fans seem to think they can walk Smith to the draft if the dogs don't accept pick 17.

If they try, do we have a crack at him with 12 or 14? Assuming he makes it that far.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 7:03 pm 
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Ken Hunter

Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 6:11 pm
Posts: 14938
Drewgirl wrote:
Very reliable poster on BF reckons we are most likely getting pick 3 from WestCoast now. Could be done by tommorow morning.

I was just about to post this. ericpascoe has a pretty good record.
When questioned says a 3rd club could be involved.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 7:16 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Location: East Melbourne
Sidefx wrote:
malbi wrote:
Drewgirl wrote:
Very reliable poster on BF reckons we are most likely getting pick 3 from WestCoast now. Could be done by tommorow morning.
I'd like Houston in our side, but Finn O'Sullivan would give us nine more years than Houston.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

I thought I read somewhere the Tigers were heavily into him for pick 1.
Or we nab one of the others at the pointy end.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2024
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 7:33 pm 
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Craig Bradley

Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:04 pm
Posts: 7477
Location: Bendigo
BamBam7 wrote:
I'm sure it's not going to come to this, but Geelong fans seem to think they can walk Smith to the draft if the dogs don't accept pick 17.

If they try, do we have a crack at him with 12 or 14? Assuming he makes it that far.

Nope.

World class flog.

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